Roberts, Alito poised to make their marks

New Justice Sonia Sotomayor will receive the most attention, as President Obama’s historic choice begins to reveal the judicial philosophy that remained largely cloaked during her confirmation hearings. And speculation will build about whether a retirement by one of the liberal justices will give Obama another opportunity to make his mark.

But analysts who watch the court will focus more on President George W. Bush’s appointments: Roberts, who became chief justice almost exactly four years ago, and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., whose consistently conservative viewpoint contrasts with that of Sandra Day O’Connor, the more-moderate justice he replaced in early 2006.

Both men are emerging from the cautious first years that every new justice experiences - Roberts as a results-oriented strategist and Alito is expected to strengthen his voice in a term whose docket already features cases that will highlight the difference he makes on the court.

“The replacement of [William H.] Rehnquist and O’Connor by Roberts and Alito is likely to have a significantly greater impact on the court than the replacement of [Justice David H.] Souter by Sotomayor,’’ said Walter E. Dellinger III, a frequent Supreme Court practitioner.

“I think we may look back in about 2020 and see that the replacement of Justice O’Connor by Judge Alito had the greatest impact on the court of any appointment in a more than a quarter of a century,’’ Dellinger said, dating back to conservative Clarence Thomas’s replacement of stalwart liberal Thurgood Marshall.

Evidence of the impact could come early in this term in a couple of First Amendment cases.

One is Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, which the court reconsidered in a special hearing last month to decide whether to overrule precedent that restricted the role of corporations in election campaigns. O’Connor supported the kind of campaign finance reform found in the challenged McCain-Feingold Act. Alito has been much more skeptical that it can be squared with free speech rights.

Alito is also likely to be more open than O’Connor to arguments that religious displays on government property do not necessarily constitute government endorsement of religion. That will be at issue when the court next week considers the case of a war memorial cross that stands on government land in the Mojave Desert.

Roberts will also be key in both cases, especially the one regarding campaign finance. The chief justice, 55, has emerged as a canny tactician, patiently moving the court’s decisions to the right, but without bold steps.

“When the court has gotten to the brink of overruling a major precedent, the court has stepped back from the cliff,’’ said Steven Shapiro of the American Civil Liberties Union.

Whether that is because of Roberts’ preference for narrow and incremental change, or because Justice Anthony Kennedy remains the decider between the court’s equally divided conservative and liberal blocs, is the great debate about the court.

But Dellinger and others expect Roberts to play a pivotal role that often eluded Rehnquist, his mentor and predecessor.

“With each passing term, Chief Justice Roberts may take an increasingly muscular role on the court,’’ Dellinger said “Unlike any other chief justice, he comes to the position from a professional career as a Supreme Court advocate in which he excelled at persuading five justices to agree with his position.’’

The term might also be noteworthy for the relationship of the three branches: an administration headed by a Democratic president with an ambitious agenda dependent on expansion of government programs; a Congress controlled by Democrats ; and a court in which six of the nine were appointed by Republican presidents.

Some discord was on display during Sotomayor’s confirmation hearings, where liberal Democratic senators excoriated Roberts and Alito.

Robin Conrad, head of the litigation arm of the US Chamber of Commerce, points out that one of the first acts celebrated by the Democratic leadership and Obama was the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which nullified the court’s ruling about how quickly discrimination lawsuits must be filed.