Karzai now expected to agree to election runoff

The findings by the United Nations-led International Complaints Commission, released yesterday after two months of political turmoil, stripped Karzai of nearly a third of his votes, bringing him below the halfway point and triggering a constitutionally mandated second round of voting between him and the runner-up, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.

Senior administration officials, while palpably relieved at what they said had been an apparent breakthrough in tense negotiations with Karzai, remained reluctant to state unequivocally that he had agreed to a runoff. “We’ll wait until the chickens are hatched,’’ said one official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Karzai aides suggested last week that he might contest the findings, setting off a series of last-minute diplomatic efforts, including visits by Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, a Democrat and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as telephone calls by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain.

Karzai met again late yesterday with Kerry and US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry to discuss the standoff.

Karzai’s acceptance, after weeks of resistance, would allow the administration to proceed with the high-level review of its faltering Afghanistan war strategy, a process that has been hamstrung by the delay in determining who its Afghan government partner will be.

The White House has been under increasing congressional and public pressure to make a decision on whether to send tens of thousands more US troops to Afghanistan, as requested by the top American commander there.

Even as the results of the fraud investigation began to leak last week, Karzai continued to insist he won legitimately, based on a preliminary tally announced in September by a government-allied electoral commission. Over the last several days, he has come under intense international pressure to agree to a runoff.

Yesterday, Clinton seized the opportunity to publicly lock in reports of progress, telling reporters, “We’re looking to hear from President Karzai tomorrow.’’

“I am very hopeful that we will see a resolution in line with the constitutional order,’’ she said. “But I don’t want to preempt in any way President Karzai’s statement, which will set the stage for how we go forward in the next stage of this.’’

A UN spokeswoman said that Karzai had told Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that he will “fully respect’’ the constitutional process.

Abdullah said yesterday that acceptance of the revised results and agreement to a runoff “will restore the faith of the people in the process.’’

Abdullah declined to discuss reports that he was negotiating a compromise in which Karzai would continue in the presidency while giving his challenger and his supporters a prominent government role. Although some US media reports have indicated such a “unity’’ government was a viable solution - with Abdullah agreeing in advance to drop out of the race as soon as Karzai accepted a runoff - several Western officials said it was unlikely.

According to an analysis by Democracy International, an independent monitor of investigation data from the UN-backed complaints commission, Karzai’s share of the Aug. 20 vote dropped from 54.6 percent to about 48 percent. Abdullah was left with 31.5 percent of the vote. The final tally must be certified by the official International Election Commission.

“They’re basically mandated to take the orders, implement the orders, then once they’ve done that, then they can then go ahead and certify the final results,’’ Grant Kippen, the Canadian head of the complaints commission, said in an interview.

Throughout the political storm, Karzai’s office has cast doubt on the credibility of the investigation, citing foreign interference and holding out the possibility that he would reject the fraud findings.