By Robin Estrin, Associated Press, 11/04/98
BOSTON - Forget about the Year of the Woman. In the Massachusetts governor's race this year, it might have been the Year of the Man.
The male vote came out strongly in favor of Republican acting Gov. Paul Cellucci on Tuesday, helping to edge him ahead of Democratic challenger Scott Harshbarger. And with their votes, these men spoke out on bread and butter issues, exit polling showed.
Men made up 56 percent of the people who voted for Cellucci, while women made up 57 percent of those who voted for Harshbarger.
"Men tend to be more conservative, therefore they tend to vote Republican more,'' said Mary Ann Marsh, a Democratic consultant.
Even with a woman on the Republican ticket -- Lt. Governor-elect Jane Swift -- female voters still leaned toward the Democrat.
Registered women voters outnumber male voters in Massachusetts, by about 54 percent to 46 percent. And women, by and large, are more likely to vote for the Democrats.
In 1997, the most recent figures available, 57 percent of registered Democrats were women, compared to 43 percent of men. Of registered Republicans, 52 percent were male, compared to 48 percent female.
Independents, or unenrolled voters, break down to 54 percent women, 46 percent men -- the same figure as overall registered voters, according to statistics from the Secretary of State's office.
Tuesday's polls showed 38 percent of men picked economic issues or taxes as their top campaign issue. These same male voters went overwhelmingly for Cellucci. (Eighty-seven percent of those who cited taxes as the issue picked the Republican, for example.)
But the women had something very different to say: nearly one-quarter of female voters said education was their top ballot concern. And these women picked Harshbarger by a margin of 3-to-1.
Harshbarger was the clear choice for Anne Bradley, a 35-year-old psychologist from Sandwich. "Number one, he's a Democrat. Number two, I like his views on education.''
Far fewer women than men -- 24 percent in total -- picked the economy and state taxes as their biggest election concern.
The survey of 1,801 voters as they left 35 randomly selected polling places around Massachusetts was conducted by Voter News Service, a partnership of The Associated Press and television networks. The margin of sampling error for each result was plus or minus 3 percentage points for all voters, higher for subgroups.
Cellucci ultimately was able to win because he wooed Democrats and independent voters.
Of the Democrats who voted for Cellucci:
About one-third felt the economy/jobs was the top issue, while about one-sixth each picked state taxes and education. By contrast, among the Democrats who voted for Harshbarger, a third felt education was the top issue.
A little under one-third of moderate Democrats -- about half the total -- voted for Cellucci.
About a third of Catholic Democrats -- half of all Democrats -- went for the Republican, at about double the rate of other religions among Democrats.
Among the independents who went with the acting governor:
A little under one-third of the independents who voted for Cellucci thought economy/jobs was the top issue. Only one-tenth cited education.
Moderate independents -- about 60 percent of the total -- went for Cellucci 2-to-1. Conservative independents, about 20 percent of all voters, went for him 3-to-1.
In low turnout election years -- and this was certainly one of them -- the vote tends to be more male and more conservative, and they tend to vote Republican, Marsh said.
"Ultimately it was the Democrats who handed Paul Cellucci the keys to the governor's office,'' she said.
