The Reagan realignment's staying power
IN 2000, Republican strategist Karl Rove often speculated that a victory by George W. Bush could bring a long-term realignment of American politics, similar to the way William McKinley's win in 1896 began 36 years of GOP dominance in Washington. Rove was being immodest in a lot of ways, but the most startling aspect of his boast was that a Republican realignment already took place in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. Bush's win 20 years later was pretty much a piggyback victory.
Since Reagan was nominated for president, no Democrat has won a majority of the national vote, though Ross Perot helped Bill Clinton win pluralities twice. During this period, the Democrats have consistently fallen short of a majority in 26 states and in 1,750 counties (out of 3,108). Many of the latter, including the counties of San Antonio, Texas; Tampa, Fla.; Spartanburg, S.C.; and Terre Haute, Ind., gave majorities to both John F. Kennedy and Carter but have snubbed Democrats ever since. I'd say the Reagan realignment was holding up pretty well before Rove came along.
What makes a "Reagan County"? One definition is a county where the Republican vote jumped at least 3 points in 1980 and where that gain was still present in the Bush vs. Kerry race. This does not include places like Las Vegas's Clark County, suburban Atlanta's Clayton County, and Fort Lauderdale's Broward County, where Reagan made dramatic gains that have since been erased. For the most part, these "ex-Reagan counties" are urban areas that have trended Democratic as they've become more crowded, as noted in a previous column.
In contrast, hard-core Reagan Counties, especially in the North, have had less spectacular population growth and are likely to be anchored by small cities. If you want to see where the Reagan realignment is as sturdy as ever, go to places like Anderson, Ind.; Joplin, Mo.; and Parkersburg, W.Va.
The accompanying map shows the lingering Reagan counties in three swing states: Ohio, which would be enough to tip the election to Barack Obama if he wins all the states that went for Kerry in 2004; Pennsylvania, considered one of John McCain's most promising chances for a pickup; and Virginia, where Obama is trying to expand the Democratic base into a historically Republican state. In all three cases, the counties where Reagan's gains have held steady or grown may give an idea of how their states will go this fall.
In Ohio, the biggest Reagan County is Butler, which lies between Dayton and Cincinnati and is moving from a manufacturing to a retail-and-service economy. Bush carried it with 66 percent in 2004, up from Reagan's 62 percent in 1980 and Ford's 58 percent in 1976. Two years ago, the Republican shell cracked a little here, as Mike DeWine got only 57 percent in his unsuccessful bid for reelection to the US Senate. Similarly, Obama probably has no chance of carrying Ohio unless he can shave at least a couple of points off Bush's percentage.
Pennsylvania's biggest Reagan County is York, home to a
Finally, Virginia's biggest Reagan County is actually the independent city of Chesapeake, a mostly suburban area outside of Virginia Beach. Bush got 57 percent here in the last election, a big improvement over Ford's 40 percent. But here, again, the mid-term elections showed some promise for the Democrats, as US Senator George Allen, yet another Republican defeated for re-election, managed only 52 percent.
Karl Rove notwithstanding, 1980 will remain the template for presidential politics as long as Reagan's victory continues to echo in counties that include almost half of the American population. Butler, York, and Chesapeake counties will be three prime indicators of whether Obama can succeed in bringing the Reagan Era to a close.
Robert David Sullivan, a guest columnist, is the managing editor of Commonwealth magazine and primary writer for the blog Beyond Red & Blue.
