BELIEVING JOHN McCain could beat Barack Obama now seems as ridiculous as believing the surge could work.
Wait, the surge did work - at least to the extent that Obama, America's presumptive president, could travel to Iraq to promote his plan for phased withdrawal.
Despite that inconvenient truth, it is still hard to imagine McCain stopping destiny's child.
Like Sisyphus, the Republican is pushing a heavy boulder up a steep hill. It is weighted down by his own flubs and flaws, the unpopularity of George W. Bush, the price of gas, and the increasing aura of inevitability surrounding Obama.
In terms of imagery, Obama's foreign trip was nothing but net. A great-looking candidate chose great-looking backdrops to help voters imagine him as the next US president. His words weren't bad either, especially his address as a "citizen of the world" to more than 200,000 Germans in Berlin.
McCain meanwhile, participated in a series of unexciting events that showcased the gulf between Obama's star power and his own lack of charisma. He tooled around a golf course with the president's elderly father, visited a supermarket, and planned to meet with the Dalai Lama. Dull, dull, dull.
It was a reminder of the days before the New Hampshire primary, when Obama rallies commanded all the buzz and Hillary Clinton's town hall meetings were written off as too tiresome to endure. Is she really going to continue talking about healthcare? Yawn.
Wait, Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, buoyed by voters who cared about the issues and also believed she was the candidate most qualified to be commander in chief.
Recent polling puts McCain within striking distance of Obama for two reasons. Voters still consider Obama the riskier choice and give McCain higher points for leadership.
Those results mirror the concerns of primary voters who opted for Clinton. But remember, they weren't enough to derail Obama in his quest to become the Democratic nominee; and on their own, they shouldn't stop Obama from winning the White House. Voters who want change above all else accept the risk that goes with it.
McCain also made it harder for himself by walking away from the fundamentals that helped him win the Republican nomination in the first place.
The original McCain storyline promoted an independent candidate who was willing to take on elements of his own party. Did that storyline hype reality? Sure, but Obama's storyline - a different kind of politics - also hypes reality. That is the nature of presidential campaigns.
Obama is lucky. The political left will accept his shuffle to the center as the price of victory. McCain is trying to please the political right, which will never love him no matter how hard he works at it. Unluckily for McCain, he can't afford to turn off independents and liberals who are trying to remember exactly what it was they once admired about him. His cave-in on the Bush tax cuts, his drift away from immigration reform and overall shift to the political right make it harder for those voters to see him as a credible alternative to Obama.
McCain's election hopes don't lie in ideology, but in character and substance. Voters of different persuasions once gave him credit for both. But, he squandered his own political brand with misstatements that make him look befuddled and responses that make him sound petty.
However, there's at least the possibility Obama's foreign tour will make him look like more sizzle, and less steak, rather than the reverse. There's also the chance that Obama will do what he did after winning the Iowa caucuses - get a little too smug and full of himself. If that happens, McCain might get another chance to show voters the candidate they thought they knew.
But, a McCain victory in November must be viewed as a long shot. Obama is a smart, disciplined politician who learns from mistakes. All signs point to a country ready for a cyclical shift in party, style, and philosophy. Obama is the change and McCain is the lost cause - even if he was right about the surge.
Joan Vennochi can be reached at vennochi@globe.com.
