Candidates look anew to N.H. and Iowa
Vital turf for both McCain, Obama
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Iowa and New Hampshire set the course for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. Barack Obama got his start in one; John McCain got his in the other.
These two smaller, politics-crazed states, with just 11 Electoral College votes between them, could be big players once again as the campaign barrels toward what looks like a photo finish on Election Day.
With Iowa leaning to Obama and polls showing the New Hampshire race much closer, both candidates focused over the weekend on the Granite State.
Obama used appearances in Dover and Concord on Friday, as well as a big rally in downtown Manchester on Saturday, to launch a new, aggressive phase of his campaign. Then McCain swooped in yesterday in his Straight Talk Express bus for a pitstop at the Sylvania 300 NASCAR race in Loudon.
Appearing with Red Sox star Curt Schilling and NASCAR legend Richard Petty, McCain laid a Republican claim to the stock car fans' vote. And many in the rain-soaked crowd cheered him.
"It's great to be back in the state I love so much," McCain told the crowd.
"There are a whole lot of what we used to call Reagan Democrats there, maybe Hillary Clinton Democrats; I think a lot of those votes are up for grabs," McCain said.
In each of the last two elections, Iowa and New Hampshire have been decided by narrow margins: In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore in New Hampshire by 7,000 votes, but lost to Gore by 4,000 votes in Iowa; in 2004, Bush beat Senator John F. Kerry by 10,000 votes in Iowa, but lost to Kerry in New Hampshire by 9,000. Both have been swing states since at least the 1980s.
This year, each candidate has a unique relationship to trade on: Obama forged a close bond with Iowans over many months leading up to the caucuses; New Hampshire voters first sparked McCain's presidential hopes in 2000 and revived them this year when his chips were down.
It was the maverick streak in McCain that New Hampshire voters fell in love with eight years ago. They respected his straight-talking manner, his brashness, his style of conservatism that de-emphasized social issues and allowed room for bipartisanship. He held one intimate town hall meeting after another.
Voters ate it up. His 19-point victory over Bush in the 2000 primary boosted his bid for the GOP nomination.
This year, after reprising his beloved town hall meetings more than 100 times across New Hampshire, McCain emerged from the primary with a five-point victory. It was enough to establish him the front-runner, and this time he held on.
"Probably more people have actually had a personal contact with John McCain than they have with any presidential candidate in history," said Peter Spaulding, who is chairman of McCain's campaign in New Hampshire. "He's sort of our favorite son in many respects."
Spaulding said he believes a small but significant percentage of voters who chose Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary - which she won unexpectedly - will vote for McCain in November.
McCain's popularity here is one reason Obama's supporters believe they have to work especially hard in the Granite State, where polls show the race neck-and-neck.
"We'll be pushing and talking to folks at work, in the papers, making sure we get some change," said Marty Winkler, a 48-year-old systems analyst from Bedford, N.H., who came with his son to Obama's Manchester rally Saturday.
McCain, though, faces a changed state. New Hampshire has, in the last several years, trended Democratic; in 2006, Democrats swept the US House races and took control of the Legislature. Antiwar sentiment also runs high, notably among the independent voters, who were McCain's base eight years ago but now have expressed misgivings about his vocal support for the war in Iraq.
One wild card is McCain's running mate, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, whose rugged background and claims of political independence hold visceral appeal to many New Hampshire voters, said Wayne Lesperance, who teaches political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H. But, he said, the discerning electorate is skeptical about the persona she has cultivated, including her questionable claim of being a strict fiscal conservative.
The risk for McCain, Lesperance said, is that voters see him as a different man than he once was, one who now represents convention more than he challenges it.
"If the narrative that the Obama folks are pushing [sticks] - that this is same old, same old, more of Bush - that's not the maverick here that folks fell in love with," he said.
When Obama launched his presidential bid, in early 2007, his campaign put a premium on Iowa, betting that a win in the caucuses would set the tone for the primary season. The state neighbors Obama's Illinois; it was home to informed, liberal Democratic voters receptive to his opposition to the Iraq war; and it provided the opportunity for the intimate politicking that Obama made into his strong suit.
So he went everywhere - he pitched his message in livestock pavilions in farm towns, on street corners in blue-collar cities, between rides at the Iowa State Fair, and in university auditoriums. His campaign built a ground organization unrivaled in Iowa political history. And the work paid off: Obama won the Jan. 3 Democratic caucuses and instantly became the man to beat.
Given the many wrinkles in the campaign since, that victory feels like distant history. But much of the goodwill - and the grass-roots infrastructure - that Obama built endures. A Des Moines Register poll released yesterday showed Obama leading McCain in Iowa 52 percent to 40 percent.
"He'd have to dramatically falter to jeopardize Iowa," said Cary Covington, a political scientist at the University of Iowa.
If another candidate were the GOP nominee - such as former governor Mitt Romney, who built strong support in Iowa before losing the caucuses to former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee - Iowa might be closer.
McCain skipped the state when he ran in 2000, essentially did again this year, and has been an outspoken critic of ethanol subsidies, which bring Iowa millions of dollars.
There is an 'X' factor, however: In picking Palin, McCain has reenergized social conservatives, who hold sway in parts of Iowa.
Nick Lantinga, a conservative activist in northwest Iowa, said, "I have no doubt in my mind that Palin's pick has transformed the constituency up here from, 'OK, we'll hold our nose and vote' to 'Holy cow, what can I do?' "
Fluto Shinzawa of the Globe staff contributed to this report from Loudon, N.H. Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com. 