McCain, Obama square off on whether to square off
With no done deal on the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, John McCain and Barack Obama last night intensified their extraordinary staredown over whether to hold their first presidential debate tonight.
McCain, who is insisting that a bailout agreement be in place first, said only that he was "very hopeful" the debate would go ahead. Obama said that voters deserved to hear the candidates, that he planned to be there, and that "I hope he will be there as well."
Both candidates returned to Washington yesterday for a private meeting with President Bush and congressional leaders on the bailout, but Obama's camp disputed whether McCain had truly suspended his campaign as he had promised.
When the two senators finally meet on a debate stage - possibly tonight at the University of Mississippi - voters will see more than just stark differences on the issues of the day. They will see two divergent debating styles, and two candidates looking to accomplish distinct goals.
The senators' contrasting personas have been readily apparent throughout the campaign - in appearances on the stump, in front of news cameras, and in numerous debates with party rivals during the primary season. Obama exudes coolness and calm, but he can come off as smug and detached. McCain employs a folksy, from-the-gut approach but at times seems more like he is shooting from the hip.
Political analysts predict both candidates will hew to those characteristics when they face off in three high-stakes debates scheduled over the next three weeks. Though analysts say debates tend mostly to reinforce voters' preexisting views, polls indicate that 5 percent to 10 percent of the electorate remains undecided, and that bloc of voters is likely to determine who wins on Nov. 4.
"They are the single most sustained dose of candidate exposure that a candidate will ever have, and so they take on immense importance in the eyes of the candidates, the news media, and the electorate," said Bob Goodwin, who led debate preparations for George H. W. Bush in 1988 and 1992.
The first debate, to be moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS, was designed to elicit the candidates' views on foreign policy, but the expectation is that questions will also cover the economic crisis threatening Wall Street and American taxpayers. It has become the dominant campaign issue over the past two weeks.
With McCain losing ground to Obama in polls as the economic shock waves spread, the Arizona senator has more at stake, said Michael McTeague, a professor of history and political theory at Ohio University-Eastern.
"McCain has more to accomplish," McTeague said yesterday. "His position on the economy has taken a hit this week."
McTeague said that because foreign affairs is more in McCain's wheelhouse, he should elevate geopolitics - the war in Iraq, a renewed nuclear threat from North Korea, a resurgent Russia - over the domestic economic crisis, without minimizing it.
Said Mark Mellman, a senior adviser to Senator John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign: "The burden is on McCain to make these debates a game-changer."
With this year's Democratic and Republican conventions drawing record TV viewership, the presidential debates may be the most watched in history. The current record was set during the Oct. 28, 1980, debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, which drew 80.6 million viewers, according to Nielsen Media Research.
During the GOP primary debates, McCain showed flashes of political acumen and wit, but also anger and irascibility.
In New Hampshire before the Jan. 8 primary, he memorably mocked former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's assertions that Romney would bring change to Washington. "We disagree on a lot of issues, but I agree - you are the candidate of change," McCain said with a smirk, an attack on Romney's changes in position on issues such as abortion.
On other occasions, when answering criticism of his immigration position or launching attacks on Romney's views on Iraq, McCain sometimes gave answers that critics said made him look nasty and small.
McCain may want to avoid looking too aggressive in light of the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, in which a majority of respondents said McCain was spending more time attacking Obama than laying out his vision for the country.
If Obama pushes his buttons, McCain has to "carefully demonstrate what his displeasure is without going off the deep end," said Jerry Shuster, a professor of political communication at the University of Pittsburgh.
Obama, though a gifted orator, has not received particularly high marks as a debater, often giving long-winded, professorial answers when punchier responses would serve him better. Most analysts believe he improved, though, after roughly two dozen clashes with fellow Democrats. He has the added benefit of having practiced one-on-one debating with Senator Hillary Clinton; McCain has had no such practice this year.
There are two main risks for Obama, analysts say. One is that he makes a misstep on foreign affairs, allowing McCain an opening to attack his thinner foreign policy résumé. The other is that he tries too hard to compensate for his short Washington tenure and comes across as overconfident or cocky. His supporters winced when, in the debate before the New Hampshire primary, he tried to defend Clinton from her critics by saying coldly, "You're likable enough, Hillary."
"He can't come off as though he's going to be the panacea for all problems domestic and foreign," Shuster said.
Both campaigns have been furiously trying to raise expectations for the other - and lower them for themselves - as they prepare for tonight's clash.
Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director, told reporters Wednesday that Obama was a "phenomenal debater." Robert Gibbs, a senior strategist for Obama, said yesterday that McCain, as "someone who has repeatedly bragged" about his foreign affairs knowledge, should shine.
Political strategists involved in debate preparation in years past say it is important to pick an overarching message and stick to it. Mellman said that no matter what the questions, to expect Obama to vow "change" and McCain to trumpet "reform."
McCain's strategic options include trying to "disqualify Obama for naiveness on foreign policy," said Stuart Stevens, a GOP strategist who helped the Bush-Cheney campaign prepare for debates in 2000 and 2004. Obama, Stevens said, could aggressively prosecute McCain for what Democrats see as his foreign policy mistakes, or play it safe and try not to make news.
But Mellman said Obama cannot hope to just sit on his small lead in current polls.
"There's always a tendency to want to play it safe when you're ahead," he said. "But Obama is not far enough ahead that it's all just running out the clock here."
Susan Milligan of the Globe staff contributed to this report; Scott Helman can be reached at shelman@globe.com. 