Democrats may have a better Deal this time round

Barack Obama has seized the electoral momentum during the economic crisis. (Mark Lyons/ Getty Images)

WASHINGTON - The "New Deal coalition" that dominated American politics from Franklin Roosevelt's election in 1932 until Ronald Reagan's in 1980 was the high-point of Democratic rule. Roosevelt governed with large Democratic majorities in Congress; John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Jimmy Carter also worked with Congresses heavily weighted to the Democratic side.

But the New Deal coalition wasn't purely liberal. Southern Democrats provided the decisive margins in the House and the Senate, and most were unabashed conservatives. In fact, only during the height of the Depression and the tiny window between 1964 and 1966 were Democratic majorities large enough for liberalism to reign unfettered.

Now, with just three weeks until the 2008 election, Democrats are beginning to see the outlines of a majority more potent than those of the New Deal era, because it wouldn't require the support of Southern conservatives. They're Republicans now, and the Democrats running for their seats are more liberal.

The notion of 2008 as a Democratic watershed hasn't seeped into the electoral discourse much, largely because the presidential race remains fluid despite Democrat Barack Obama seizing the electoral momentum during the economic crisis. The campaign proceeds in an atmosphere of close combat, with the underlying assumption that whichever party wins the White House will have to court the support of the other to get anything done. Republican John McCain praises the hammering-out of the financial bailout as a model of bipartisanship. Joe Biden vows to "reach across the aisle."

"I think it's fair to say I have almost as many friends on the Republican side of the aisle as I do on the Democratic side of the aisle," Biden boasted in the vice-presidential debate.

Biden surely knows that a lot can change in three weeks of campaigning, especially with turbulence in the economy and wars overseas. But he and fellow Democrats can already see the outlines of a majority so large that there'd be little need to reach across the aisle for anything.

The Obama-Biden ticket holds the lead in most national polls. The House, which requires only a simple majority to shape its agenda, shifted to Democratic control in 2006. Many Republican incumbents despaired over losing their power and retired, making it harder for the GOP to mount a serious challenge this time around. Therefore, a Republican comeback in the House is unlikely.

That leaves the Senate. It, too, has a small Democratic majority, just 51 of 100 seats. But unlike the House, the Senate requires a super-majority - of 60 out of 100 votes - to suspend debate; without 60 votes of its own, a party must "reach across the aisle" to get anything done.

Democrats have a serious shot at reaching 60 seats. Most of the seats up for reelection this year happen to be held by Republicans, and in three states - Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico - the Republican incumbent is retiring and a Democrat is leading in the polls. Only Colorado, where Democratic Representative Mark Udall has a modest lead over former GOP Representative Bob Schaffer, remains competitive. But Schaffer has an uphill climb: There are Democratic winds blowing through Colorado, where the party's convention in Denver energized its supporters.

In addition, the Democrats have targeted four GOP senators in states that have been leaning Democratic: Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Minnesota. Of the four, only Maine's Susan Collins seems likely to be reelected; a two-term moderate who was never close to President Bush, Collins maintains a strong lead in polls. But New Hampshire's John Sununu and Oregon's Gordon Smith are trailing, and Minnesota's Norm Coleman is neck-and-neck with his Democratic challenger, former comedian Al Franken.

But even if Democrats won three of the four, they'd still need three more pickups for the magic total of 60, meaning some Republican incumbents who were assumed to be safe would have to falter. And so far, they have.

Alaska's Republican warhorse Ted Stevens is on trial on corruption charges. North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole is struggling against a strong challenge by Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan. And Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who was appointed to fill the term of retired Trent Lott, is facing an unexpectedly tough race against former Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove.

In Mississippi and North Carolina, Obama's candidacy could draw unprecedented numbers of black voters, sweeping Hagan and Musgrove into office as well.

In their first debate, McCain chided Obama for having a liberal record, saying "It's hard to reach across the aisle from that far to the left."

Obama didn't respond. Perhaps he was thinking that he might not have to reach so far after all.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.