Third-party candidates could tip some states
WASHINGTON - Third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr have small but tangible followings in a number of battleground states, positioning them as potential wild cards Tuesday in races in Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and elsewhere.
Both presidential hopefuls qualified for the ballots in 45 states, raising the possibility that even a small showing in a tightly contested state could tip the balance to either Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain - and if the overall race is close, possibly help select the next president.
In a vivid reminder of the potential power of third-party candidates, Al Gore campaigned yesterday on Obama's behalf in Florida - the state that Gore nar rowly lost in the disputed 2000 election, partly as a result of Nader's showing, costing him the White House. "Florida, as you know, may well be the state that determines the outcome of this election," Gore said, drawing some awkward applause as he recalled one of the darkest hours in recent Democratic Party history.
Urging the crowd in West Palm Beach to "really turn it on" for Obama in the waning days, Gore added, "Take it from me, elections matter, every vote matters."
Yet to the dismay of some Democrats, Nader could once again take votes away from their party's nominee. Barr, a former Republican representative from Georgia who is the Libertarian nominee, could take away GOP support from McCain.
In his latest quest, Nader is bashing both of the major-party candidates, saying that an Obama victory would be "one of the biggest con jobs in American political history" and that McCain would be a disastrous "clone" of President Bush.
"These two parties are converging on surrendering to corporate power," said Nader, who was reached by telephone as he campaigned across Michigan yesterday.
The closer the race becomes in battleground states, the more likely it is that even 1 or 2 percent of the vote going to Nader or Barr could make a difference. Some analysts predict, however, there will be a different Nader legacy in this campaign: the memory of his impact in 2000 could be spurring many voters, mostly those backing Obama, to act on the belief every vote makes a difference - and go to the polls.
Another minor candidate, Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party, is also seeking the presidency but has garnered little support or notice.
Stu Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said yesterday that he initially believed that this election presented the "perfect environment" for an independent candidate, given the overwhelming disdain for politicians of all stripes. But high-profile potential candidates including Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York decided not to compete, leaving the field to little-funded hopefuls who do not have widespread support. At the same time, Republicans nominated a self-described "maverick" and Democrats picked a nominee whose main message is "change," as both candidates sought to claim the outsider message.
Rothenberg drew a distinction between the nearly 3 percent of voters nationwide who supported Nader as the Green Party nominee in 2000 and the apparently much smaller group that supports him now. In 2000, the bulk of Nader's voters said in exit polls they would have voted for a major-party candidate - more than two-to-one for Gore - if Nader was not running.
Now running as an independent, Nader relies on a smaller group of hard-core supporters who would be less likely to vote for a major-party candidate, Rothenberg said. He said Barr similarly draws from a hard-core following of Libertarians who would likely otherwise stay home on Election Day.
Excluded from the official presidential debates, rarely covered by the media, and left out of many polls, the minor-party candidates say they are running because they see failings in the major-party candidates and want to highlight their favorite issues.
Nader could have the most significant impact in Missouri, where he drew 4 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll this week that shows McCain leading Obama by a slim 48 percent to 46 percent.
Barr, who has criticized McCain for being too moderate, was at 3 percent in his home state of Georgia in another CNN survey, which showed McCain ahead 50 percent to 46 percent.
In Florida, Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 45 percent, but Nader and Barr have 3 percent combined. In 2000, Gore lost the state to Bush by 537 votes in the hanging chad controversy that eventually ended up in the US Supreme Court. Nader won more than 97,000 votes in Florida, but rejects the idea that he cost Gore the election.
Many Gore partisans, however, have never forgiven Nader for his role and are appalled that he is once again in the presidential contest. "I'm one of those who believe that after George W. Bush, Ralph Nader is probably second in line for the responsibility of the direction that our country has gone in the last eight years," former Gore spokesman Chris Lehane said yesterday.
Lehane said Nader was unlikely to cost Obama a victory in any state, but Lehane said Barr might hurt McCain in some states because of disenchantment among some conservatives about the Arizona senator.
McCain spokesman Ben Porritt said, however, that Barr would have a "very minimal" impact on the race. "In the years when third-party candidates have had an effect, they at some point of the race have dominated the media coverage or news cycle, and we never have seen any third-party candidate in this race accomplish that," Porritt said.
Such media attention was given in 2000 to Nader, and in 1992 to Ross Perot, whom Republicans have long blamed for the failure of former President George H.W. Bush to win reelection.
The Obama campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said it was impossible to predict whether the outcome in any state would be affected by the third-party vote, but he said he was hopeful that members of his party had not forgotten what happened in 2000.
Michael Kranish can be reached at kranish@globe.com. 