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EXIT POLLS

Economy weighed heavily on most voters' minds

Six in 10 called the issue their highest concern

A worker adjusted an American flag yesterday at the Weston Galleria in Houston. The hotel was set to host a party for the Harris County GOP. A worker adjusted an American flag yesterday at the Weston Galleria in Houston. The hotel was set to host a party for the Harris County GOP. (Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle)
By Brian MacQuarrie
Globe Staff / November 5, 2008
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Battered by a drumbeat of dire news from the workplace and Wall Street, a wave of American voters went to the polls concerned about the economy and chose Senator Barack Obama as the candidate best equipped to lead the country in a new direction.

Obama, a 47-year-old Democrat, enjoyed broad, deep support from women, blacks, Hispanics, and the young to be elected the nation's first African-American president, according to nationwide exit polls.

His Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, carried slightly more than half of white voters, but fell far below the 17-point margin that President Bush had in 2004.

Six in 10 voters described the economy as the most important issue to them. And of those voters, six in 10 supported Obama. Nearly all voters said the economy was poor or not good.

Worries about the economy, which had dominated the campaign for nearly two months, dwarfed concerns about the war in Iraq, which only 10 percent of voters labeled as their leading priority.

The Iraq war as a voter concern was followed by terrorism and healthcare, which each drew 9 percent in the poll conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. Energy policy was selected by 7 percent.

Voters clearly linked McCain to Bush's eight-year economic record, despite the candidate's pledge to keep taxes low and create jobs. More than 40 percent of voters said their family's finances had deteriorated over the last four years, and nearly two-thirds said they were worried about being able to afford healthcare.

"The voters were looking for somebody to blame," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Obama attracted wide support from voters concerned about the economy despite a widespread belief that he is more likely to raise taxes. Seventy percent said taxes would rise under Obama, compared with 61 percent for McCain.

But significantly more voters, 57 percent to 40 percent, think Obama is more in touch with their concerns than McCain, at a time when 93 percent said the economy is slumping or worse. Despite that pessimism, nearly half of voters said they believe the economy will improve within the next year.

Obama also benefited from a windfall of support from new voters, many of them young and minorities. Six out of 10 new voters were under the age of 30, and Obama won that group by a 38-point margin over McCain.

About 40 percent of the new voters were divided almost evenly between blacks and Hispanics, groups that broke overwhelmingly for Obama. The Illinois senator attracted nearly all black voters and about two-thirds of Hispanics. In 2004, Bush received about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote and 10 percent from blacks.

McCain, by contrast, received heavy support from white voters without college degrees and more than half of white voters overall. McCain, 72, also garnered slightly more support than Obama from voters age 65 and older.

Race was described as a factor by about 20 percent of voters for both candidates, the polls indicated. About 60 percent of voters who backed Obama said they believe race relations will improve. Roughly the same percentage who supported McCain believe those relations will remain the same or worsen.

The selection of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as McCain's running mate did not give a big boost to the Arizona Republican. Obama received a slight edge among the 40 percent of voters who said her selection had an important effect on them.

A snapshot of Obama's strength could be seen in Pennsylvania, a battleground state where each candidate waged a fierce campaign. Although Obama trailed among all white men there, 53 percent to 46 percent, he ran strongly across a wide range of other demographic groups and categories to carry a state where Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton used an overwhelming advantage in rural, white areas to defeat him in the primary.

Obama won white college graduates, 54 percent to 45 percent. But he lost, by the same percentage, among whites who did not graduate from college. However, Obama showed the range of his appeal by winning among all age levels in Pennsylvania, in union households, across major religious affiliations, and in nearly all income levels.

Obama received his soundest rejection there among supporters of the war. Eighty-three percent of voters who somewhat approve of the war supported McCain; 93 percent of voters who strongly approve of the war backed the Republican.

The Edison/Mitofsky poll was conducted for the National Election Pool, which is composed of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, and The Associated Press. More than 10,000 voters were interviewed at random yesterday at 300 precincts across the nation and in phone interviews with early voters.

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