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In mayoral race, numbers game leaves strategists scratching heads

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Strategists working with candidates in Boston’s crowded mayor’s race profess unusual levels of uncertainty about the outcome of the Sept. 24 preliminary election, saying that a historic collision of factors have made the contest much more difficult to predict.

They chalk it up, in part, to the time lapse since the last truly competitive mayoral election here, in 1993, and the fact that Mayor Thomas M. Menino has so thoroughly dominated the political landscape here during that era.

Equally momentous are the city’s evolutions over that period, into a majority-minority population whose communities of color have grown increasingly politically active, particularly in the last decade.

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