In swing states, narrow issues gain mighty strength

Forget those solidly partisan blue and red states. This election is all about the purple ones, the states still up for grabs.

And within these swing states are swing constituencies, narrow demographic groups that may tilt their home states one way or the other. Most analysts see 16 to 18 swing states, and the Kerry and Bush campaigns are working them hard.

For voters in Massachusetts or Texas or other non-purple places, the election may seem like the rumble of distant thunder. But for select groups in purple states, the pressure will be intense, with huge spending on campaign events, television ads, and paraphernalia.

There is no neat geographical region or single ethnic or interest group that is the key to the 2004 election. But a study of polls, surveys, and demographic trends turns up four voter groups with potential to tip the balance in two or more purple states, where shifts of a few thousand votes may make the difference in an election expected to be razor close. They are swing voters inside swing states, and they are linked by geography, ethnicity, culture, and-or economics. Less ubiquitous than soccer moms, more diverse than NASCAR dads, these voters could be influenced by one or two issues, personifying Tip O'Neill's famous adage that all politics is local.

Latino diversity. Latinos in the nation overall support Kerry by large margins, according to recent polls. But in three swing states -- Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico -- their vote is harder to predict.

In New Mexico, which Al Gore won by just 365 votes in 2000, Latinos vote Democratic 2-to-1. But Bush is strong among white voters there. Therefore, turnout by Latinos, which has historically been lower than among whites, may make the difference. A majority are Mexican, and Bush has courted them via immigration policy, their top issue. A similar calculus holds in Nevada.

In Florida, matters are more complex. Bush won among Latinos there 61 to 39 percent in 2000, mostly through the support of Cubans. But that community is trending slightly leftward, with new arrivals more motivated by economic and immigration policies than by anti-Fidel Castro positions.

The rest of Florida's Latinos -- Mexicans and Puerto Ricans together now outnumber Cubans -- are up for grabs. They might go Kerry's way save for the fact that Bush's brother, Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, a fluent Spanish speaker, holds considerable sway with them.

Appalachia brawn. Call them Reagan Democrats or Clinton Republicans, this heavily-unionized group of working-class families leans left on economics but tilts rightward on social issues. And they populate three vital states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Union workers make up 15 percent of those employed in these states.

In particular, steelworkers, who number nearly 200,000 in Ohio and Pennsylvania, not counting their families and retirees, are angry about Bush's recent repeal of tariffs against foreign steel. And the economic troubles of the last three years have hit them hard, with heavy job losses.

However, many consider Democrats too antigun, and too pro-environment, and, now, pro-gay marriage. They are torn between their values and their wallets.

Michael Moore liberals. These are liberal voters in cities and college towns in Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon. In 2000, they came out in force for independent candidate Ralph Nader, giving him more votes than the difference between Bush and Gore.

This crowd is fervently opposed to the war in Iraq, with many recently viewing Michael Moore's anti-Bush movie ''Fahrenheit 9/11." Polls indicate they will turn out in force against Bush. But they may grow disenchanted with Kerry, who voted for the war and refuses to disavow it. Some may peel off to Nader; some may not vote. But Kerry needs their support, because Bush has campaigned heavily in the rural parts of these states, where his support has grown strong.

Medicare conservatives. Politicians have long courted the elderly with the promise of protecting Social Security. People over 65 make up nearly 15 percent of the population in four key swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Iowa.

This year, there's a wild card: the new Medicare prescription drug benefit championed by Bush. The benefit helps seniors purchase prescription drugs, but many find it cumbersome and incomplete. Still, the price of prescriptions, which spiked 7.2 percent last year for the most common drugs, is a huge pocketbook issue.

In these swing states, elderly voters lean toward the GOP. In 2000, they favored Bush 52 to 46 percent in Florida, for instance. But a recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that 47 percent of seniors unfavorably viewed Bush's Medicare drug policy, while only 24 percent approved of it. This older set is up for grabs.

It remains to be seen if these four key groups vote on narrow issues of self-interest or are swayed by more sweeping ones, particularly the Iraq war and terrorism, which, taken together, rank highest in minds of Americans in recent polls. But the campaign that crafts the right message to one or more of these swing voting blocs may take the White House on Nov. 2.

Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@globe.com.