Kerry camp hopes to redefine Southern strategy

For nearly five months, John F. Kerry and George W. Bush have been fighting the last war. Most of their stump time and piles of advertising dollars are being spent in about 20 states in which current polling data parallels the close margins of the 2000 presidential election.

With the Democratic convention underway and the Republican National Convention five weeks away, both campaigns will be making strategic decisions on how to deploy their resources and commit their candidates' and surrogates' time.

But Kerry's selection of North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate could provide a rare opening for a Northerner in the South, by some estimates. Four years ago, Bush swept all 11 states in the old Confederacy plus the border states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Florida, West Virginia, and Missouri are all considered battleground states or tossups again this year, but the Kerry campaign has targeted Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and possibly Tennessee as targets of opportunity to stretch the voting map in the fall. At the outset of this campaign in March, all those Southern states were considered safe for Bush.

''For the Democratic Party, it's impossible to give up on the South," said Alexander P. Lamis, a political science professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. A South Carolina native who has written extensively about Southern politics, Lamis said ''cross-cutting issues are transforming" the region, softening the legacy of race-heavy politics.

''State and local Democrats up to now have been less willing to base their appeals on national issues," Lamis said. ''They've been fearful that the Democratic message won't sell in Southern states. I think that will be tested in this election because people are hurting on jobs and health care.

''If you couple that with the fact that Kerry has chosen an energetic Southerner as his running mate . . . and take away those racial legacies, then the Democratic Party in the South doesn't look much different from the Democratic Party in Ohio."

Similarly, Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 campaign, said Kerry ''has room to grow" in the South, as well as in the Rocky Mountain states.

''Kerry has expressed interest in some of the Southern states. He's hit my home state of Louisiana which, I think, is ripe for change, as is Arkansas," she said.

''The South has been stereotyped for too long as being hostile to anyone who's not a native," said Brazile, now a consultant. ''But Kerry can talk about the economy and security issues there and appeal to independents and anyone else who hasn't fared well under George Bush. I'm not going to say it will be easy for Kerry, but he can make a case."

But Republican operatives doubt Kerry is a serious threat in the South, except in Florida, a battleground with a diverse Latino population and many Northern transplants on its coasts. One target of opportunity for the GOP could be New Jersey, where polls have shown Bush running much closer to Kerry than was the case in his 16-point loss to Gore in 2000. A concerted effort there, however, would require television advertising in New York City, the most expensive market in the nation.

To date, the Kerry campaign has been bolstered in the battleground states by television ads purchased by Democratic 527s, politically active nonprofits that are named for the tax code section under which they operate. Though the Bush campaign had outspent Kerry's campaign, $86 million to $73 million, on television spots heading into late July, Democratic 527s had outspent a Republican 527 $42 million to $1 million, according to data compiled by Media Strategies and Research, which places ads for two major 527s, The Media Fund and MoveOn.org.

The heaviest buying, in terms of combined dollars spent has been in the most populous battlegrounds, has been in Florida ($34.6 million), Ohio ($26 million), Pennsylvania ($20.7 million), and Michigan and Missouri (both about $16 million). But looked at another way, spending per electoral vote, Nevada ($1.7 million for each of its five electoral votes) is the most fiercely contested on the airwaves. West Virginia ($1.325 million for each of its five electoral votes) ranks third. Bush carried Nevada by 3.5 percent four years ago, and West Virginia by 6.3 percent.