Debate unable to sway focus group

CUYAHOGA FALLS, Ohio -- Supporters of John F. Kerry's campaign were overjoyed after Thursday night's debate. Pundits and viewers agreed the Democratic nominee for President had aced the foreign policy matchup with President Bush. Aides in Kerry's revamped, on-message campaign operation allowed themselves a little restrained gloating.

But if Kerry's biggest fans could have been at Moe's restaurant with the Globe's 10-voter focus group Friday night, they might have left feeling a bit deflated. All of those voters believed Bush had done badly Thursday. Most of them believed Kerry had gotten the better of the president in the debate.

And yet, not one of their minds was changed by it.

"I watched the whole thing, but I didn't get very much from it," said Joyce George, a 61-year-old undecided voter who is leaning toward Bush. "It was just kind of repeating what they've been saying all along."

Before the debate, three in the group were fervent Bush supporters, and one was a reluctant but firm Kerry supporter. Six were undecided, with three of those leaning toward Bush, two leaning toward Kerry, and one not leaning at all. And that was exactly where they all stood after the debate as well.

Nationally, a Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 likely voters taken Friday night indicated 6 percent of voters said the debate had changed their minds about the candidates. But Kerry took the lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, in a new Newsweek poll, with Independent candidate Ralph Nader getting 2 percent. Bush led Kerry, 49 percent to 43 percent, in the same poll in early September.

The 10 voters in the Ohio group, whom the Globe has been following since June, were gathered with help from the Center for Policy Studies at the University of Akron. Bush and Kerry are locked in a tight battle in this crucial state, and both campaigns are bombarding voters in Ohio with television spots, mailings, and phone calls. The candidates come to the Buckeye State often: Bush appeared yesterday at a rally in Cuyahoga Falls, just a couple of minutes from Moe's. Kerry is scheduled to make appearances in a suburb of Youngstown and in Cleveland today.

Judith Cohodas, who voted for Gore in 2000 but is undecided this year, said she was hoping to get "some forward thinking about where the country is going," from either Bush or Kerry. She said she thinks Bush is a "decent, honorable person," but she was disappointed in him Thursday. His grimaces bothered her, and he did not counter Kerry's criticisms with good arguments, she said.

"If Bush is this tired in a debate, how is he when he is negotiating with foreign countries?," said Cohodas, 60, who is leaning toward Kerry. "Kerry can seem starchy, but he came across softer, a little bit more human, and I didn't expect him to be as learned about the topics as he was."

Still, Kerry did not win her over completely: "I want to know what is going to happen with the economy, health insurance, education. Show me a plan I can get excited about."

"They're both good people, but I want them to sell me the future," said John George, 64, an architect who, like his wife, Joyce, is undecided but leaning toward Bush.

"You want my vote? Tell me what you're going to do about helping me out on Medicare," said Ed Beegle, a 54-year-old retired UPS driver whose wife has kidney disease. Beegle, who is leaning in neither candidate's direction this year, has been having trouble getting coverage for his wife's treatments.

On foreign policy, the group mostly supported Bush during their three-hour discussion. Most of them disagreed with Kerry's contention that Bush should have continued pursuing diplomacy before ordering the invasion, and agreed with the president that the Democrat's comments on the war were demoralizing for the troops. Several spoke of a connection between Saddam Hussein and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, discarding Kerry's insistence that there was no link: "We wouldn't have been over in Iraq if it wasn't for what bin Laden did," Beegle said.

Since Thursday night, Bush has been hammering away at Kerry for his statement that the United States should pass a "global test" before taking preemptive action to protect the nation, asserting that Kerry said a president should get approval from other countries before acting. In fact, Kerry said passing that test means "your countrymen, your people, understand fully why you're doing what you're doing, and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons." But most of the voters in the focus group adopted Bush's take on the comment, and they debated whether Americans should care what the world thinks of them.

"Do you want to be loved or do you want to be feared?" asked Howard Cohodas, 59, a strong Bush supporter who runs an elevator business.

"I think it does matter, having a good rapport with our foreign friends," said Joyce George. "I don't want to be hated. You need friends."

"And this is not the way to get them," said Shirley Cohodas, speaking about Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq. Cohodas, 81, was the only firm Kerry supporter at Moe's. She is not thrilled with the Democrat, but the retired nurse, and mother of Howard, is of the anybody-but-Bush school.

"I think you have to stand firm, but up to a point," she said. "I'm really a little worried about the way we're seen in the world."

But while many in the group stood by Bush on Iraq, they were not so forgiving on the matter of Osama bin Laden. Most of them seemed mystified that the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks had not yet been caught.

"Somebody had a camera on him," said a Bush-leaning undecided voter, Lisa Griffith, 33, whose stepson, a Marine, is being sent to Iraq in January. "Why can't we capture him?"

Kyle Gaul, 24, a law student and Bush supporter, said too much emphasis was being placed on bin Laden, because "shutting down cells is more important than getting the front man."

But John George, who believes "the CIA and FBI failed miserably" on the intelligence that led to the Iraq war, said Kerry missed a big opportunity when the topic of bin Laden came up Thursday night.

"It was the perfect opportunity for Kerry to really make a point," he said. " 'It's been three years since 9/11. Where is bin Laden?' He got it just so far, but he didn't finish. You can really kill somebody with that, and he held back on making a point of it."

Only two in Friday night's group said they would make their decisions in November based solely on foreign affairs. Most said they would also consider matters of the economy and health care.

The last time the group met, Amy Locy, a deputy clerk of council in nearby Munroe Falls, was upset about the war in Iraq. She believed Bush had planned to invade even before he won the presidency in 2000. She "just can't stand" Bush, but was resisting Kerry because he had not won her over. He still has not, Locy said, but she would probably vote for him anyway. "I know what I've got to do, I'm just resisting it," said Locy, 39. The economy has sent her in the Democrat's direction.

"My community, jobs, everything has gone so down in the last four years, and I personally can't go another four years like this. My whole life is changing," she said, declining to give details because she did not want to make them public. "I'm not saying everything is George Bush's fault. He's the president, he's not God. But I need some relief."

"But how do you know relief is coming?" Beegle asked Locy. "Kerry's had no experience."

"I understand that," Locy said. "But Bush has had four years."