Edwards continues to lead in Iowa

By Jenn Abelson, Globe Staff

A new University of Iowa poll released today shows the race for the Democratic presidential nomination tightening in Iowa with caucus goers splitting nearly evenly between former vice presidential nominee John Edwards, and Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Edwards' clear lead has disappeared as New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson picked up support among Democrats likely to caucus. Edwards is supported by 26 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by Clinton with 24.8 percent. But both saw their support fall since March -- Edwards dropped 8.2 percentage points and Clinton fell by 3.7 percentage points. Obama, with 19.3 percent, remained basically unchanged.

Among all Democrats, Clinton leads with 26.8 percent, followed by Obama with 22.3 percent, Edwards with 22.1 percent, and Richardson with 8.5 percent.

David Redlawsk, director of the poll and associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said Clinton leads among all potential caucus-goers because she picks up substantial support among Democrats who say they may caucus in 2008, but admit they have not done so regularly in the past.

"Obama and Clinton could benefit if they could get people out who historically haven't shown up. But in the past, candidates, like Howard Dean, most recently, haven't been terribly successful at getting out nontraditional caucus-goers," Redlawsk said.

About two-thirds of Democrats surveyed said that Clinton is the strongest candidate, an increase of 10.5 percentage points since March. Nearly 85 percent of the most likely caucus-goers agreed with the statement that "John Edwards is electable" compared to 81 percent for Obama and 76.3 percent for Clinton.

The results are from a random, statewide poll of registered voters in Iowa conducted July 29 through Aug. 5 and with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.