A brokered convention for Republicans?

The party conventions have become pro-forma, made-for-TV anointments of the presidential nominees.

But some political pundits are suggesting that this time could be different, at least on the Republican side, and that the GOP gathering in Minneapolis-St. Paul next September might actually pick the nominee.

John B. Judis makes the case for a brokered convention in the current issue of The New Republic. He points to the fact that the four leading Republican contenders are rather tightly bunched in the polls, argues that the accelerated primary schedule makes it easier for candidates to stay in the race, and after crunching the poll numbers in the early voting states says it's unlikely that one or two candidates will break out.

Rudy Giuliani is leading in the national polls, but is followed closely by Fred Thompson. John McCain appears to be resurging. And Mitt Romney, while fourth in most national surveys, is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is well ahead in the polls and could wrap up the nomination well before the Democratic convention next August in Denver.

So Judis says that if Republicans can't settle on their nominee until the convention, that could help Democrats, who would have a head start in coalescing around their standard-bearer.

"It's the Republicans, not the Democrats, who are looking at a political nightmare in 2008," he writes.