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Obama ahead in new Iowa poll

By Scott Helman, Political Reporter November 19, 2007 06:09 PM

No wonder Hillary Clinton is redoubling her efforts in Iowa.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers has Barack Obama leading the primary field with 30 percent, compared with Clinton at 26 percent and John Edwards at 22 percent. Obama's lead doesn't amount to much given that it's still within the poll's margin of error. But the horse race numbers, along with the results of other questions asked in the poll, has his campaigin smiling. It's the first time in weeks that Obama has held such a lead. (See the full results and Post story here.)

Clinton is still seen as the more experienced Democrat, but caucus-goers surveyed in the poll say they are more interested in change: Fifty-five percent said a "new direction and new ideas" was their top priority, compared with 33 percent who said "strength and experience." Obama is also increasingly the second choice of Iowa voters, the Post reports. That's significant because any candidate who doesn't win 15 percent at a caucus is deemed inviable, and his or her supporters must choose another candidate or go home.

Iowa, which votes Jan. 3, is the only early caucus or primary state where Clinton has not held a significant lead in the polls, and she is stepping up her campaign there to try to fend off strong challenges from Obama, who has a massive Hawkeye State organization, and Edwards, who did well in the state in 2004. On the Democratic side, Iowa looks more and more like it will have an outsized voice in picking the nominee.

16 comments so far...
  1. Thank God. Obama is our best chance to take back the White House. Hillary is too devisive. Enough already with Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. Obama will make a great President.

    Posted by mark favreau November 20, 07 12:36 PM
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  1. It energizes me to see the intelligent voters of Iowa trending in Obama's favor! A Vote for Hope, is a Vote for Barack.

    Posted by Kat Haber November 20, 07 01:57 PM
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  1. Mr. Obama was not my first choice, but the more I hear and read from him and the less I receive any concrete answers from Ms. Clinton, the more I am compelled to support Mr. Obama.

    We need a new direction in Washington and I believe Obama can provide it to the entire country.

    Posted by Ricardo Johnson II November 20, 07 02:30 PM
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  1. It's reassuring that Barack is up in a mostly white state. It's nice to see that race is not an issue when it comes to Democratic Caucus-goers. I believe Barack will be our first black President.

    Posted by LM November 20, 07 02:32 PM
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  1. I can see it developing now! Momentum from an Iowa win could pave the way for a New Hampshire upset, followed by a subsequent victory in South Carolina. It culminates in a February 5 Barack tidal wave!

    Posted by Mikey November 20, 07 03:01 PM
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  1. It is so refreshing to see intelligent people really looking at what's best for our country and not voting just because a person has a familiar, well known last name. Obama does stand for change, honesty and a new, much needed direction. Obama, you have my support!!

    Posted by Kim November 20, 07 07:14 PM
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  1. In Obama we TRUST!!!

    Posted by markie November 21, 07 12:51 AM
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  1. Jeb in 2016!

    Posted by Jeff Barnes November 21, 07 01:05 AM
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  1. this makes my day - it was so discouraging to see the press just annoint Hilary the nominee months before a vote is cast...Without having decided between Obama and Edwards I was nevertheless disgusted by the sense of entitlement her campaign projects.

    Posted by Drew November 22, 07 03:49 PM
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  1. It's time for change, the Washington good ole boys and gals club
    (Bush & Clintons= The Same Old BS!!)it will be destroyed in 2008!!

    Obama For President 2008

    Posted by Emanuel Jennings, US Army Iraq War Veteran November 22, 07 03:51 PM
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  1. Let's be real. In the general election, is bigotted America really going to vote for an inexperienced black guy with 'Hussein' for a middle name. I don't think so. Of course that's wrong but, in the 2007-8 U.S. of A., that's just the way it is. Someday we'll get past that thinking, but it ain't gonna happen before next November. Like H.R.C., Obama stands a good chance of losing for the Democrats. John Edwards, in contrast, would be very marketable, and he could still pick up several southern states, even if he were to pick a woman or minority as a running mate. A Republican win would be an unmitigated DISASTER for us...therefore I'm supporting Edwards.

    Posted by Jim McClintock November 24, 07 06:09 PM
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  1. As lousy a President as Obama would make, Hillary would be a dangerous one. As she did in 1993-2000 she would control the I.R.S. as her weapons platform against her enemies - illegally again - and as she did in 1996 she would certainly sell military secrets to the Red Chinese or even Iran or whomever had the cash for her 2012 campaign. I'm glad Obama's ahead.

    Posted by Wolfen244 November 25, 07 04:47 PM
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  1. Public Citizen tracks and rates the congressional voting records of all members of congress. Neither of the other two front Democratic candidates can match Hillary – she gets a 92% rating for the last full year(2006). Obama either voted against or didn’t show up for two critical votes on Class Action S.5 and Medical Malpractice S. 22. Hillary was right on both. It’s just plain foolish to think Obama represents change without any proof. Both would be acceptable presidents but Hillary is the easy choice at this time.

    The fact that Bill was once president shouldn’t disqualify her either. What would the country be telling young women – if you want to reach your potential, don’t marry a successful man?

    Posted by John November 25, 07 05:46 PM
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  1. In terms of experience and knowledge of key issues, Hillary Clinton is head and shoulders over Barack Obama. However, I'm amazed that Hillary is having so much trouble in Iowa, especially considering the fact that there are so few blacks in Iowa.
    Hillary is, by far, the best candidate in the race for President, but she has difficult choices to make. To win the Democratic nomination, she has to move to the left politically, but if she or any other candidate perceived as beeing a leftist will have a tough time being elected as president.
    Also, the Democratic Party candidates have be careful on the Iraq issue because the Bus surge in Iraq is going surprisingly well.

    Posted by Michael Horowitz November 27, 07 12:53 PM
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  1. I think either caucus-goers are out of mind or they are planted by the republican campaign machine. Nominating a black man with Muslim heritage or a woman is like gambling with an election deperatetely needed by the Blue poeple,Democrats. I also like Mr. Obama but I am realistic and frankly speaking I would not even vote for my black brother as I deeply believe that he will be losing the office to a whitle punk. In public people are nice and liberal minded but when they enter the little booth where no one can see what they are doing, a white person will have a second though to vote for Obama, and a white male wiil think twice to vote for a woman. In the little booth, the 20% swing voters will be reluctant to make a history. Even the unatractive Ohio congressman who is supported by only 1% can defeat a repulican candidate more than Obahma. At this time democrats need a white punk to win the office rather than a black prophet or smart woman who will lose the office.

    Posted by Kadar Abdul November 28, 07 05:58 AM
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  1. what a sign of the times- or is it? I thought that our political society was so superflurous that a president with the name Obama wouldnt be electable as president not because he wasnt qualified (because thats never stopped us before ) but because he had a name which was so plainly ethnic- lets face it - we like catchy names for our famous people, and saying President Obama sounds more like he is the head of some nebulous made up third world nation in a Segal action flick, rather than the Leader of the Free World.

    Posted by nick stalin December 1, 07 12:38 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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