Giuliani sticks to unorthodox strategy
By Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff
Phooey to the inside-the-Beltway pundits who believe Rudy Giuliani's campaign strategy is off the wall because it shortchanges early voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and instead commits candidate time and resources to big, delegate-rich states that won't vote for another four or five weeks. That's the tone of an everything-is-peachy memo issued today by Giuliani's strategy director, Brent Seaborn.
Titled "Looking Good" and sent to key supporters and the news media, the memo notes that early and absentee voting has already started in some of those big states presumed to be Giuliani-friendly -- including Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois. It also cites the average results of public polling data in those states showing Giuliani with a large lead over his nearest competitor for the Republican nomination.
But the numbers include polls that are, in some cases, three to seven weeks old, before Giuliani began to slip virtually everywhere. More recent surveys show Giuliani's lead, even in Florida, his firewall state that votes on Jan. 29, shrinking dramatically.
"Our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right -- bold, innovative, and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar," Seaborn wrote. "While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old, 'Carter/Clinton' approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right."
If not, this memo will be filed in the whistling-past-the-graveyard category.
At the same time Seaborn relies on past polls to validate his theory, he warns his readers [read: the news media] not to trust the next wave, saying accurate polls in New Hampshire "will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race."
Likewise, polling in South Carolina, Michigan, and the other early states will "be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling."
That may have been a reference to recent nightly tracking polls by Rasmussen Reports, an independent firm which uses automated calls to create an average four-day rolling sample. Figures released Sunday and today had Giuliani falling to fourth place nationally, with 15 percent, in a bunched field of five candidates separated by a mere five percentage points. Today's totals had John McCain at 17 percent, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee at 16 percent, Giuliani at 15, and Fred Thompson at 12.
A month ago, Rasmussen's polling had Giuliani at 27 percent -- 14 or 15 percentage points ahead of the same four rivals.
As a South Carolinian, I would not vote for Guliani to be the county dog catcher. I am glad he is skipping his campaign efforts here. Stay in New York City!
How any pollster can say that NY is "Giuliani friendly" has to be NUTS ! New Yorkers despise him - we were victims of his incompetence before , during , and after 9/11 which caused so many to die unnecessarily and so many to be gravely sickened by the toxic air afterwards. the Firefighters and the public despise him. Take NY off the Rudy friendly list.
Giuliani wasn't corrupt like Bill and Hillary, who were themselves under indictment, being hauled in front of grand juries, explaining why they hired cronies, why they had the FBI files, why they sold secrets to the Chinese, why the did nothing in Somalia, and so forth. By the way, in 8 years, what did they do on global warming, the cost of energy, fixing social security, etc.?
Giuliani didn't marry his high school sweetheart, but he has been an extremely successful public servant. Right now, this is the primary, and so the opinion of liberals and democrats isn't relevant yet.
He doesn't need the votes of 9/11 "truthers", who may fill up the blogs, but represent a small minority of the population.
I just watched a video put together by Fire Department NY union and fire members. They are exposing Giuliani for what he did to NY fire fighters and how he directly is responsible for the loss of life for over 121 NY firefighter in the World Trade Center.
The video is put together by the NY fire members.
Watch it. I became sad and wiped tears from my cheek. Giuliani isn't the great leader of 911 we all thought he was.
Do not vote for this scum bag. Mayor Giuliani has no honor. Decide for yourself after watching these fire fighters tell their story.
here is the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaCYEEO-58I&feature=related
Dan Campbell
Sgt., USMC
Every candidate has done SOMETHING to tick SOMEONE off. Rudy made some really tough decisions during an unprecedented tragedy in NY history. Some simple-minded individuals insist on focusing on a few events and ignoring the overall facts. Rudy was a mayor of the greatest city in the world, and with that comes HUGE responsibility, not only to the NY firefighters but to the NYPD, general NY economy, and the residents of the city. Add to that the fact that NYC relies heavily on tourism, every decision must be made carefully...and you're NOT going to please everyone.
Rudy is the least "political" of all the candidates. He's displayed leadership in a tremendously stressful situation, rivaled only by the fact that McCain was a POW. There are only 2 candidates running on either side that I feel comfortable voting for: Rudy and McCain. I'm a Giuliani guy FIRST. He's 1000x more qualified to be President than anyone else running.
Rudy,
Come on. Rudy is a never was. I was a delegate to the GOP convention
in 2000 and 2004. I have raised thousands of dollars for the GOP and I have
donated thousands of dollars for 20 years. Guess what I never have spoken to or met a former delegate who was with Rudy. Rudy was a 7 year media canidate.
As we say in NYC
forrgetaboutit!
Rudy,
Come on. Rudy is a never was. I was a delegate to the GOP convention
in 2000 and 2004. I have raised thousands of dollars for the GOP and I have
donated thousands of dollars for 20 years. Guess what I never have spoken to or met a former delegate who was with Rudy. Rudy was a 7 year media canidate.
As we say in NYC
forrgetaboutit!
Send your comments to masspolitics@globe.com
browse this blog
by categoryINside Boston.com