There are polls, and then there are polls. Here's one that matters.
A new Des Moines Register survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers gives Barack Obama a narrow edge over rival Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards holding steady just below them. Obama is at 28 percent, compared with Clinton at 25 percent and Edwards at 23 percent. Obama's lead over Clinton is within the margin of error.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, who has skyrocketed in recent Iowa polls, has overtaken Mitt Romney and now leads 29 percent to 24 percent. Rudy Giuliani is in third at 13 percent. Both parties' races in Iowa, which holds caucuses in a month, remain fluid, the poll suggests. And in Iowa time, a month is an eternity. Still, both current front-runners can find good omens in the results.
Obama leads Clinton among women 31 percent to 26 percent, the Register reports, a stark change from October, when 34 percent of women caucus-goers said they would vote for Clinton, and 21 percent preferred Obama. Women account for about 60 percent of likely caucus-goers, the poll indicates.
Huckabee leads Romney, 38 to 22 percent, among those who call themselves born-again Christians, who make up half of likely caucus-goers. Romney drew more support than Huckabee from that group in October.