Text size +

Obama moves into tie in New Hampshire, poll says

By Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor December 12, 2007 10:01 AM

Barack Obama, neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, has now surged into a tie in New Hampshire as well, according to a new poll.

The WMUR/CNN survey released this morning says that Clinton's once 20-percentage-point lead has disappeared and she is in a statistical tie with Obama, 31 percent to 30 percent. John Edwards remains in third with 16 percent and Bill Richardson is at 7 percent.

The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center over the weekend, at a time when Obama was getting lots of buzz for his rallies with Oprah Winfrey, including one Sunday in Manchester.

Since the last WMUR/CNN survey, conducted in mid-November, Clinton's support has dropped by 5 percentage points, while Obama's has risen by 8 percentage points.

Two other New Hampshire polls out today offer conflicting looks at the Democratic race, though the differences between Clinton and Obama are the near equivalent of statistical ties.

A Rasmussen Reports poll has Obama ahead 31 percent to 28 percent. It was conducted Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A Suffolk University/WHDH-TV survey has Clinton ahead 33 percent to 26 percent. It was conducted Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.

Clinton's campaign, meanwhile, is promoting three recent national polls that show her with double-digit leads over Obama. "These polls show that voters very much believe that Hillary is the most electable candidate out there," chief strategist Mark Penn argues in a memo sent to reporters.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney, who is in a dogfight in Iowa with Mike Huckabee, continues to lead in New Hampshire with 32 percent, compared to 19 percent each for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Huckabee has 9 percent, according to the poll, and Ron Paul 7 percent.

New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is Jan. 8, just five days after the Iowa caucuses.

25 comments so far...
  1. Wow! Obama comes from 20 points down to pull even with Hillary in New Hampshire? That's some serious momentum, folks. Look out! The Obama train is just getting cranked up...

    Posted by Michael Kniat December 12, 07 11:23 AM
    Reply | Report this post

  1. Beautiful site! Please visit my sites too:
    xj sbg [url=][/url] xj sbg

    Posted by xtnkgctz December 12, 07 11:29 AM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. thank goodness. if people think hillary would be good for the country, they surely have forgotten the scandals and dysfunction of the clinton family while in the white house before. clinton touts 35 years of "experience" but this was not relevent experience. chasing your down husband while he was being serviced and satisfied by an intern is hardly presidential experience. "first lady" indeed. sounds more like second or third.

    Posted by David December 12, 07 11:47 AM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. thank goodness. if people think hillary would be good for the country, they surely have forgotten the scandals and dysfunction of the clinton family while in the white house before. clinton touts 35 years of "experience" but this was not relevent experience. chasing your husband down while he was being serviced and satisfied by an intern is hardly presidential experience. "first lady" indeed. sounds more like second or third.

    Posted by David December 12, 07 11:48 AM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Attention, Democrats! You nominate Obama, you lose in November. Hillary can win, he can't. Wake up before it's too late.

    Posted by Chuck Lane December 12, 07 11:51 AM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. They are both communists so it doesn't really matter. If Hillary is elected our Healthcare system will become worse then the Canadiens'. If Obama is elected then not only do we have a Healthcare system worse the the Canadiens', but we also have much higher taxes due to reparations for slavery. Looks like a lose-lose situation to me.

    Posted by Shane December 12, 07 12:06 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. They are both communists so it doesn't really matter. If Hillary is elected our Healthcare system will become worse then the Canadiens'. If Obama is elected then not only do we have a Healthcare system worse the the Canadiens', but we also have much higher taxes due to reparations for slavery. Looks like a lose-lose situation to me.

    Posted by Shane December 12, 07 12:08 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. OK Chuck, remind me again, who exactly is going to defeat Obama in a general election? Giuliani the crook? Romney the fake? MIKE HUCKABEE? Get real, man. The only chance the republicans have in this election is if the democrats nominate someone they can rally and vote against.

    Posted by Chris Diloreto December 12, 07 12:14 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Barack Obama is the new Ralph Nader.

    He has lots of preety speeches and rhetoric but no real ability to deliver. If you think W polarized the electorate wait till this man's empty promises catch up with him. Republicans will rejoice if he is the nominee.

    Posted by Ron December 12, 07 12:17 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Good for Obama but on the other hand, too bad John Edwards is being lost in the dust of these two. He has both the experience and the vision and determination to shake things up. He has the best of both worlds. Most importantly, for Democrats one would think, he is a 'straight shooter', doesn't equivocate, flip flop, etc. He says what he means and he doesn't take it back. Can't say that for Hillary, anyway.
    I'm still with Edwards as long as possible. He is an amazing candidate.

    Posted by Jennifer Hodsdon December 12, 07 12:23 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I'm horrified at how easily people have been persuaded simply because Oprah Winfrey has taken a liking to Obama.

    Obama has NO chance of winning the election...stick with Hillary!!!

    Furthermore, although Bill Clinton made some 'bad' personal choices, I think he did great for the country. Hillary will do the same.

    Stick together DEMOCRATS!!!

    Posted by mackytack December 12, 07 12:34 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I like how once popularity shifts people start hating Obama. Those without an opinion previously, now suddenly have one.

    Obama may lack years in a governmental position. True.

    But maybe that's exactly what we need... As far as i'm concerned, Hillary is politics as usual and the only way she is any different is that she wears a dress. Get real... she's been bought out by special interest. If you believe otherwise you are blinded by Hillary's popularity.

    Ohhh yeah... let's vote for the popular Hillary, and not stand by who you believe in. That's a real plan :rolleyes:

    Posted by Brendan December 12, 07 12:43 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I wonder if the electorate is so stupid as to nominate a person just because they think he or she is electable or if they are smart enough to elect a canditate because he or she stands for values and programs that are moral and just. Aren't we ready to elect the latter...and then to support them with a congress who'd be willing to do the same?

    Posted by Paul December 12, 07 12:46 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Obama is the type of leader the world needs. If Obama wins the nomination he will win the election. Please give Americans credit for making a decision next November that wil stand the test of time and politics. Our planet deserves the best.

    Posted by James Carbone December 12, 07 01:44 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Obama is the type of leader the world needs. If Obama wins the nomination he will win the election. Please give Americans credit for making a decision next November that wil stand the test of time and politics. Our planet deserves the best.

    Posted by James Carbone December 12, 07 01:44 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Obama is the type of leader the world needs. If Obama wins the nomination he will win the election. Please give Americans credit for making a decision next November that wil stand the test of time and politics. Our planet deserves the best.

    Posted by james Carbone December 12, 07 01:46 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I’m inclined to vote for Senator Joe Biden because I believe he is the most experienced candidate, has the best plan for Iraq, has a commanding and intelligent presence, appears to be a unifying candidate, and he knows his way around Washington. Unfortunately, I doubt he’ll make up the ground in New Hampshire in the next month.

    That being said, I’d prefer to see Senator Obama instead of Senator Clinton. I have been amazed at how well his political organization is working. I get regular mail from the Obama campaign, expressing his views on the national issues (which seem to resonate with me). I believe that’s a good sign of a well run organization. I get sporadic literature from other candidates. The fact that he’s made up a lot of ground is also a tribute to his grass roots organization in New Hampshire. I also am seeing more “Obama” lawn signs in my neck of the woods, not that signs can vote. But, it is an indication that his support is growing.

    I don’t know if Senator Obama or Senator Clinton can break the gender/race ceiling in 2008, I hope we as a country are beyond that. I believe that we need a Democratic administration at the executive level. We’ve had far too much blundering in the past 8 years. I don’t think another Republican administration is going to undo the woes of the “W” administration.

    That being said, whether it’s Senator Obama, Senator Clinton, or by some chance Senator Joe Biden, I’ll be voting for the Democratic candidate 11 months from now.

    Posted by Drumahh December 12, 07 01:57 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. John Edwards does the best against any of the Republican candidates according to a CNN poll released Dec 11, better than Obama or Clinton (Clinton is not surprisingly the only one who could lose to Republicans).

    http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/?iref=hpmostpop

    For some reason, John Edwards doesn't get as much media coverage as the two "rock star" candidates, but people need to really look at the candidates for themselves, not just take the celebrities endorsements at face value.

    Posted by regular American supporting Edwards December 12, 07 02:12 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. If the media short-changes John Edwards what better indication do you need that Edwards is the man the elites fear most to make the serious changes that need to be made in Washington.
    Wake up people before it is too late!
    Obama's over-enthused supporter got it dead on: Clinton is the...

    Posted by Jo Jo December 12, 07 02:38 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. If the media short-changes John Edwards what better indication do you need that Edwards is the man the elites fear most to make the serious changes that need to be made in Washington.
    Wake up people before it is too late!
    Obama's over-enthused supporter got it dead on: Clinton is the specter of ....

    Posted by Jo Jo December 12, 07 02:39 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I have to wonder about the polls in which respondents say "Hillary is the most electable." I'd wonder if these are the same people supporting her. Actually, I would not be at all surprised to see a fair number of the people who say "Hillary is most electable" actually don't support her. I for one see this air of Machivellian Washington political-machine inevitability to her nomination. So on any poll I'd say she's likely to more electable than Barak in the primaries.

    Quite frankly, I hope to God that if Mitt Romney or Rudy becomes the Republican nominee the Democrats don't nominate Hillary -- a good portion of the evangelical vote will sit out the election in those two cases UNLESS Hillary is on the ticket --- I'd bet she would be polarizing enough to make a Christian fundamentalist vote for a muslim.


    Posted by Sam December 12, 07 03:24 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. god help us if the senator from NY fools americans into choosing her.
    who else to better bring together republicans in opposition and win the 2008 election.

    conventional wisdom is destroying our country. let's elect Obama and lead the world again!

    Posted by jeff December 12, 07 04:00 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Obama is who we need as President. If only the Red states would wake up and smell the coffee. Republicans want all the money, that's a given. BUT they fail to realize that unless the typical working Joe as expendible income, nobody wins. Meanwhile, under the Republican leadership, what's happening to our country as we speak. I don't think I'm going on vacation, anytime soon, considering our beloved Dollar is worth literally nothing overseas. Something is wrong, when Canadians, are coming to the U.S. for bargains, with their Canadian Dollar.

    Rudy, I know its not right to judge someone, on his or her pesonal affairs but come on, this guy thinks he can run our country? He couldn't run New York, and still takes credit for everything positive in the city.

    Obama just wants to fix GWB'S mistakes without an agenda, unlike Hillary.

    Posted by Henry Lee December 12, 07 04:34 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Barack Obama is not Muslim, and the fact that so many people believe that rumor is truly disturbing. Do Americans have no interest in educating themselves?

    Posted by Katie Marie December 12, 07 06:12 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Right, because choosing the most "electable" candidate worked out so well for Dems in 2004. Can Clinton supporters come up with a reason why she would be the best President over the other candidates?

    And LOL at Shane; "Candadiens"... and reparations for slavery; based on what, his lineage to Jefferson Davis?

    Posted by CarbonDate December 12, 07 09:19 PM
    Reply | Report this post
add your comment
Required
Required (will not be published)
About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

Send your comments to masspolitics@globe.com

archives Select a month

browse this blog

by category
by tag