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Polls show state of races in Iowa, N.H.

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor December 19, 2007 09:49 AM

Two new polls solidify the state of the races in the first two states that will choose the next president.

In Iowa, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are neck-and-neck among Democrats likely to attend the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll published today. Obama leads with 33 percent, Clinton has 29 percent, and John Edwards is within striking distance at 20 percent. Obama's edge is within the 4-percentage-point margin of error for the poll, which was conducted Thursday through Monday.

In New Hampshire, Clinton continues to hold off Obama, according to a CNN/WMUR survey released today. Clinton, who was endorsed today by the Foster's Daily Democrat newspaper, has the support of 38 percent of likely voters in the Jan. 8 Democratic primary, compared to 26 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Edwards. That poll was also conducted Thursday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

On the Republican side in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney remains ahead with 34 percent support, but John McCain has passed Rudy Giuliani for second place with 22 percent, compared to Giuliani's 16 percent. Mike Huckabee, who is leading Romney in polls in Iowa, is at 10 percent.

52 comments so far...
  1. Come on. Democrats can't be that stupid. You've got a time that people yearn to end divisiveness yet they gravitate toward the most polarizing person in the race. Independents and Republicans and many dems favor Obama. Why not the clear majority of Democrats. Especially when the polls also tell us that Clinton will turn many states back of the GOP in the House. Let's end the bickering. Independents in New Hampshire please come through.

    Posted by jdr December 19, 07 10:43 AM
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  1. Clinton can’t control her own campaign leaders how is she going to control the country?

    Posted by kdr December 19, 07 10:57 AM
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  1. I can't think of a more depressing scenario other than Clinton vs McCain in the general election next year. America, please wake up! We need new leadership! Vote Obama 08.

    Posted by drg3750 December 19, 07 11:05 AM
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  1. I'm impressed with the common sense, intelligence, and wisdom of New Hampshire and Iowa voters who recognize that Hillary Clinton is the best qualified candiate among the ranks of both Democrats and Republicans. Her reputation for having a command of the issues, an ethic of hard work and professionalism, proven leadership ability, and compassion for those in need is widely recognized across America; that's why she continues to be the national frontrunner despite the desperate, hate-mongering venom from a few on the fringes of both the left and right.

    Posted by VB December 19, 07 11:16 AM
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  1. Sorry but being Bill Clinton's wife and an unspectacular senate term does not give you proven leadership ability, no matter how hard you try to make us believe that.

    Posted by md777 December 19, 07 11:23 AM
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  1. "Every generation needs a revolution."
    We are due, folks. There is one candidate who can be that catalyst. If you are torn, take some time to search deep within. Barack Obama will rise to the top of your conscience. He is the truth.

    Posted by Phil December 19, 07 11:53 AM
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  1. First, the only venom seems to be coming from Republicans or Hillary. Obama is clean of that junk.

    2nd, Obama has a lot of experience in public service. Clinton has a term in the Senate. In any case, i do not buy the argument that you need to be a career politician to be qualified for the presidency.

    Remember another man from Illinois with little experience. Abraham Lincoln had even less than Obama, and unless you are a southern junky, then you'd agree that THAT went quite well.

    Posted by Josh December 19, 07 12:04 PM
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  1. I agree with comment #1. Come on democrats, we're supposed to be smarter than this! For eight years we've complained about how Bush has divided this country. Hillary would be just as divisive!

    Whether we like it or not, nearly all republicans, the majority of independents, and a fair amount of democrats simply can't stand Hillary. For this reason, her chances of winning a general election are slim to none.

    Stop living in the past, and do what's right for America.

    Posted by Evan December 19, 07 12:19 PM
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  1. Comment #2 sums it all up!!!!!!

    Posted by Dianna December 19, 07 12:33 PM
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  1. Why do Hillary supporters', such as VB up there, comments always read like they've been copy&pasted from some campaign press release. Speak from your heart, man!

    Posted by Perry December 19, 07 12:57 PM
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  1. America, where less than 1/3 of the eligible citizens bother to vote, gets just what its lazy people deserve: A “strong man” - CLINTONS / BUSHES - oligarchs who capable of “getting the job done”. We have been on “the road to serfdom" for awhile passively sliding into outright totalitarianism.

    Posted by Jo Jo December 19, 07 01:18 PM
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  1. Perry, I use my intelligence and make my own judgments. I learned to think criticially as an English major in undergraduate school. Later on, I earned a master's degree in theology from an accredited seminary, so I have a deep appreciation for professional ethics. I recall that our current president was the charming one who led with his heart in two previous elections - he was the kind of guy you'd like to go out and have a beer with. Well, neither Hillary Clinton nor I has had any experience hanging out in bars; Dubya spent half his life as a barfly.

    Neocon columnist David Brooks (why are these prominent conservative media gurus supporting Obama?) wrote in the NY Times yesterday that although Clinton was the better qualified and more experienced candidate, the messianic Obama had "transformational" powers. Now, you can go by that assessment if you wish when you're in the voting booth in 2008, but I have to shake my head at your apparent lack of common sense and good judgment.

    Posted by vb December 19, 07 01:52 PM
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  1. VB, Don't you think that many Republicans are tired of living in times so divided. If you are such a deep thinker how come you don't think it through. David Brooks does seem like a putz but he aint no neo con. Not all Republicans are neo cons. Some have conservative values. You're advocating perpetuating crap that has been going on too long. Hillary is cunning and conniving. What could she be qualified more for? She is no leader. She is calculated. She would be a major mistake. Edwards is better than her but Obama is the superior leader in the field.

    Posted by jdr December 19, 07 02:13 PM
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  1. Really smart democrats want Hillary. These are the people who want to win the general elections to prevent another 4 to 8 years of self-serving republican rule.

    Obama is a wannabe who will be clobbered in the general elections.

    Posted by decider December 19, 07 02:15 PM
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  1. WHO CARES ABOUT STATEWIDE POLLS?


    SOMEBODY PLEASE REPORT ON THE LATEST GALLUP POLL THAT SHOWS HILLARY DOING THE WORST IN THE GENERAL ELECTIONS!

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/103366/Whom-Would-Americans-Vote-Next-November.aspx

    Posted by julie December 19, 07 02:21 PM
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  1. Decider, Obama is more electable than Hillary.

    Look for yourself.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/103366/Whom-Would-Americans-Vote-Next-November.aspx

    Posted by julie December 19, 07 02:24 PM
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  1. VB, that's interesting that you came to such a conclusion from David Brooks. I also read the article and thought he came to some very articulate points that encouraged my support for Mr. Obama. I hope every voter takes a good long think about this before the primaries start. I've loved reading some of the points raised here, thanks everyone.

    Posted by Brant Arthur December 19, 07 02:28 PM
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  1. If anyone cares about Darfur than you will vote for Obama who is in the current documentary on HBO right now.

    Posted by sharilyn shaw December 19, 07 02:38 PM
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  1. The 66% of Americans who don't support Bush should vote Ron Paul. Bush lost support because of the war against the Middle East, and Paul is the only candidate who does not support continued carnage.

    Posted by Joe SHmore December 19, 07 02:40 PM
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  1. Hillary's main experience is sleeping with a president for 8 years, and she obviously didn't do a very good job at that.

    Posted by Roger Overkill December 19, 07 02:49 PM
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  1. Why should we care what the voters in New Hampshire think. It certainly isn't because of their massive electoral value!

    Yet election after election I see candidates paractically running for Governor of New Hampshire and Iowa. Makes me sick.

    Posted by Concerned voter December 19, 07 03:08 PM
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  1. I see no one talking about Hillary's corporate connections, just as Bill was a corporate president. I am sad that more Democrats don't see John Edwards as the best choice, as I do. He is the only one who is the consistent populist. The middle class is on life support, and the prognosis is dire. I like Obama OK, but Hillary is a disaster as she will continue to allow the corporations to control our government. What's the definition of Fascism? Look it up, and then look around.

    Posted by Morris McClellan December 19, 07 03:10 PM
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  1. Of the three front runners in the Democratic campaign, I support Obama. He has his eye on the future and the ability to bring change and some unity among the American citizenry.

    Posted by Betty Grace McCollum December 19, 07 03:12 PM
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  1. VB - if you really think Republicans are supporting Obama because they want him for President over their own candidate, you are deluded. Remember that strategy letter Rove wrote to Obama that he's following almost to a tee - well, the Republicans want Obama to be the candidate and here's one example of why:
    http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2007/12/17/on-live-birth-abortion-the-candidates-differ/

    Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama differ markedly in their voting records on the live birth of an aborted infant. As an Illinois state senator, Obama "joined several other Democrats in voting "present" in 2001 and "no" the next year," reports A.P./CBS News in "Obama Record May Be Gold Mine For Critics " Eight Years As State Senator Were Full Of Controversial Votes, Including Abortion And Gun Control."

    During the same two years, as a U.S. Senator, Hillary Clinton joined the 98-0 vote in the U.S. Senate on a 2001 amendment to the Patients Bill of Rights that protected "infants who are born alive." In 2002, a House bill that protected infants born alive was passed by unanimous consent in the U.S. Senate " with Sen. Clinton joining the "Yeas" " and was signed into law.

    If you think what Karl Rove did to John McCain in South Carolina"s 2000 primary was brutal, just imagine what the GOP will do with Obama"s "present" and "no" votes on "live birth abortion." ..

    Posted by bbln December 19, 07 03:16 PM
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  1. A plague on both their houses ... I'm eagerly looking forward to the time when Hillary and Obama knock the stuffing out of each other so we can replace them with a worthwhile candidate ... like Biden (preferably) or Edwards.

    I think it's sad that once upon a time the media was supposed to be the watchdog of our political system. Now they're so focused on selling headlines that we're stuck with all flash and no substance. It would be nice if they'd give more space to the candidates who might be worth something.

    Posted by llp December 19, 07 03:57 PM
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  1. Living in a theocracy for the past 8 years has been insufferable. What America does not need is another intolerant, narrow-minded, evangelical president. Too many members of the Republican Party talk about Christian values and then try to justify their views (prejudices) by saying they are scripturally derived. We need a broad-minded president who understands that this wonderful country is a melting pot made up of many different kinds of people who understands that the bible is not to be interpreted literally. Not everyone is a born again Christian. A lot of us are moral, ethical, honest, mainstream Methodists, Presbyterians, Catholics, Jews, Buddhists, atheists, etc. I will admit that my views are rather tainted. I am a Methodist who attended a Baptist college and was told over and over and over, semester after semester that I, my best friend who is Jewish, and the friends I made from Japan were all going to hell because we were not born again Christians. Unfortunately it was not just a few people. I tolerated it for 3 semesters but had to transfer out because I couldn’t take the hate and intolerance. Baptists and other evangelicals need to be taught that their way is not the only way and everyone else is not wrong and is not hell bound and most of us ‘do get it.’

    Posted by Elizabeth December 19, 07 04:19 PM
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  1. How about the straw polls? These are polls where people actually have to show up!

    Which Polls?

    There are different types of polls:
    1. Automated landline telephone polls
    2. Human conducted landline telephone polls
    3. Straw polls
    4. Internet polls
    5. Post-debate text message polls

    Let’s change the conversation in America, and refer to “the polls” more accurately.

    Posted by John D. December 19, 07 04:41 PM
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  1. bbin, no way do I think conservative Republican media gurus are supporting Obama because they want him to be president. They're more devious than that. They know he'd be a lot easier to defeat in the general election than Hillary Clinton who has been standing up to their cheap shots and all out attacks for years. But here's the deal:

    It was actually NY Times columnist David Brooks who gave Barrack Obama his talking points for a presidential run on Oct. 16, 2006 in his column titled Run Barrack Run. And Obama has followed Brooks’ suggestions to the letter.

    Brooks was followed up by libertarian Andrew Sullivan’s column in the Dec. 2007 issue of the Atlantic, the anti-feminist online magazine. Sullivan came close to plagiarizing the earlier Brooks column in his worshipful support of Obama.

    Not to be outdone, in his first column for Newsweek, Karl Rove offered tips to Obama in his opinion piece titled How to Beat Hillary (Next) November.

    And this week, David Brooks dedicates another Ny Times column to Barrack. How do thoughtful Democrats interpret this conservative support for a candidate that Brooks acknowledges has been a slacker in the Senate and lacks the requisite knowledge and experience to be president? Should we accept the judgment of this former columnist of the Weekly Standard that Barrack's soul will be sufficient to help the United States recover from the damage done by eight years of Dubya's admininstration?

    I think not. As I said earlier, Hillary Clinton has the knowledge, the practical experience, the wisdom, the leadership skills, the work ethic, and the compassion for those in need that the role of president requires.

    Posted by vb December 19, 07 04:51 PM
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  1. The majority of my family have voted Republican their whole lives. Nearly all of them are voting for Barack this year.

    Posted by Corey December 19, 07 05:38 PM
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  1. Barack Obama for President of The United States of America.

    It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.

    Posted by PulSamsara December 19, 07 07:51 PM
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  1. NO more Clinton dynasty and corrupted Health Industry.

    !!! VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA !!!

    Posted by jkojs December 19, 07 08:31 PM
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  1. Hillary, for a myriad of reasons, is the best person to send to the White House. I'm glad she's gaining in New Hampshire again; hopefully it's permanent. Iowa will be tougher to crack, but her strategy to win there seems promising.

    Posted by John December 19, 07 08:55 PM
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  1. Does anybody actually think that if Obama is the nominee that the GOP hate and attack machine will simply lay down and join him in a chorus of KUMBAYA? This nonsense that "Hillary is Polarizing" but Obama will "bring the country together" was created in fantasy land. Republicans will NOT halt their attacks on the Democratic Party regardless of who is running. Wake up people -- this country is divided. Vote for Barack Obama if you like - but if you do so thinking that FOX NEWS will ignore his admitted cocaine use - or his middle name (Hussein) - Then you are living in a dream world - The Democrats need to nominate a PROVEN FIGHTER who knows how to deal with Karl Rove and the GOP attack machine and that person is HILLARY CLINTON

    Posted by david December 19, 07 10:22 PM
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  1. Ok, honestly, those of you who support Obama for his ability to bring "change", tell me what change has he brought so far!! He's just another Senator and the way some dems are marvelling over his skills - it seems they only marvel over his oratorial skills (which is not that impressive to begin with) - surprises me.

    I have talked to many Obama supporters and asked them why they like him and I get ambiguous answers like he will bring change, he is amazing, blah blah. I ask them to elaborate further and none of them can come up with a solid answer...

    Give me Hillary or Edwards anyday... I have been traveling a lot outside of the US (East Asia, South Asia and West Asia/East Europe) these past few months and clearly, Hillary is one person who is respected (if for no other reason but her association with Bill) and she in my mind can definitely help improve the soured relationships with a lot of these countries... Edwards I believe has a strong message for the inequal America that we have started to live in... But Obama? Change? Wtf does it even mean?

    Posted by Ed December 19, 07 10:44 PM
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  1. Obama will not win with the swing voters.. Vote for Hillary

    Posted by tyrone meyers December 20, 07 12:06 AM
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  1. I heard Hillary say that her husband had to clean up the mess that the 1st bush left. Well Well George Bush has had to clean up the mess that the Clintons left> If they have done the job we would not be in the mess we are in not. The folks that want to kill us grew under thier watch. North korea made a monkey out of them> George bush has that cleaned up. Liba now has no nukes. afganastan has no more taliban. Iraq has no sadam. We have not been attacked since 911. Now you want to put the Clintons back in the white house????

    Posted by Floyd December 20, 07 12:15 AM
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  1. PEOPLE! Vote with your heart. The arms industry donated more to Hillary than any other candidate, and that includes the republicans, mind you. I have a feeling they know something about her that we don't.
    Vote For Kucinich!

    Posted by Angus December 20, 07 12:52 AM
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  1. so, why am I not hearing more about how Dennis Kucinich is doing? Could the main stream media be purposely concentrating the attention on Obama and Clinton? Folks, there are better candidates in the run for the Democratic seat than Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. And do not neglect the third party runners!

    Posted by Agustin J. December 20, 07 04:24 AM
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  1. Clinton is not electable as President, when are the democrats going to realize that . She cant tell the truth, tell every group she talks to what they want to hear then when it becomes a issue she says that not really what she meant She has promised New York jobs etc and has not delivered on anything thank go we got Senator Shumer.

    Posted by alan December 20, 07 07:13 AM
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  1. I love Barack Obama. He is new, exciting, fresh, and different.

    And in times of crisis and difficulty, what do we need more but fresh, exciting, and different. Why would we want a proven commodity, like Clinton, who succeeds at every turn instead of the guy we "feel" can do it. I don't want the proven commodity - sounds like a lot of other people don't either.

    Does that make all of us wrong? Maybe...

    Posted by ReillyLover December 20, 07 09:32 AM
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  1. Seriously? Seriously. What I hear is, "I support Obama, he is so inspirational, he just gives me hope." What doesn he stand for? Will he get things done? "I don't know but I know he is so hopeful."


    Hillary will actually be able to get done what she says. No training period, no introduction. If you care about any democratic issue, from healthcare, to global warming to DARFUR, vote Hillary.

    Posted by k ten December 20, 07 10:30 AM
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  1. Barrack N Roll! Obama 2008!

    Posted by Leif Springer December 20, 07 11:57 AM
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  1. In the unrelentingly chauvinistic gentleman’s club of the American presidency, sexism has many faces.

    Obama is working the Cinderella fantasy by telling younger generations of women that they should be longing for salvation and protection from a handsome prince like himself. Only he can give them hope and a new future, not another woman, even Oprah agrees.

    Edwards talks about being a change agent or the Superman. He is really appealling to the “god-given” role of women as dependent housewives and mothers in households headed by strong men fighting the special interests. Every time Edwards says that he remembers where he came from, what he’s really saying is that he has all episodes of Father Knows Best on DVD.

    What about character? This is a form of sexism that says women can’t be competitive or independent without being labeled scheming, conniving, and untrustworthy. A woman’s place is in the home, and any woman who would aspire to the most powerful job in the world is automatically suspect. Good women wear veils.

    If sexism wasn’t playing such a large role in this election, the public would ask who has the best ideas, who has the most extensive resume, and who has the most realistic chance to succeed based on past experience.

    Posted by paul page December 20, 07 04:53 PM
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  1. Barack Obama is my vote in 2016!!

    Posted by Mike December 20, 07 06:02 PM
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  1. Please take a serious looks at Joe Biden. He does not get a lot of media attention, but he is seriously talking about the issues -- and not just in sound bites.

    Posted by Mark December 20, 07 06:46 PM
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  1. I'm proudly voting for Hillary Clinton, despite the desperate pleas from the Obama worshippers! Don't forget Obama worshippers, we are trying to elect a President not some bizzare messiah! Hillary has got twice as much experience as the two year old senator Obama. And she has a lot bigger heart, than all the media hype Obama has received. Vote for Hillary, if you're smart! If you're not, then vote for Obama, I guy guaranteed to hand us democrats a major loss on his idealistic silver platter.

    Posted by lionred December 21, 07 12:07 AM
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  1. To all of those who say, that Obama - the hope peddler inspires them...I can't only help but think these people must be living some seriously desperate and miserable lives. I have closely followed this excessive Obama media coverage and I haven't seen or heard anything that is anywhere near inspiring. So for those Obama supporters who are seriously inspired by this guy, might I suggest you learn how to inspire yourself for once. Smart democrats use your brain and vote for Hillary Clinton a proven and tested leader!

    Posted by Mark December 21, 07 12:32 AM
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  1. How come no one is talking about the poll that shows Edwards is the only democratic candidate that beats every republican?

    Posted by Eileen Sanders December 21, 07 10:51 AM
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  1. I have to agree with some of the previous comments. I don't get the Obama thing. Is there one solid plan that he has laid out for this sweeping unifying change that so many are excited about?

    I think many of the supporters of Obama would be hard pressed to actually come up with a true reason to vote for him. What exactly does “vote with your heart” mean?

    Tell me what your perfect president is and what actions he or she would do, then tell me how Obama fits that role.

    Uptalking, text-messaging, MySpacers, in general, have no idea what it takes to operate the Office of the Presidency.

    Posted by RickyJJ December 21, 07 11:07 AM
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  1. What is experience? Previous presidents have been governors, or had a longer term in the Senate or House, before taking office. All of these experiences prepare a person to operate within the system, rather than to change the system. Yet change is precisely what this nation needs. Barack has correctly pointed out that the two of the most experienced people in Washington, Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, have led the U.S. into the disaster of Iraq.
    A focus on experience is also a way to avoid talking about qualities such as leadership, intelligence, courage, fairness, judgment, temperament and integrity—qualities that truly matter in a leader. Barack's experience has developed these qualities.
    He has ten years experience in public office, more than the two other leading Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton (six-plus years as Senator from New York) and John Edwards (six years as Senator from North Carolina). Barack's first eight years spent in the Illinois senate before his two years (and counting) of service in the U.S. Senate, should not be forgotten. Far away from the Washington spotlight, he introduced, voted on and passed bills, debated with his colleagues—something that was missing in Washington, where everything is settled in the backroom—and arduously worked to satisfy his constituents. Most important of all, he learned that how to work across the aisle, and get stuff done.
    "When you come in, especially as a freshman, and work on something like ethics reform, it's not necessarily a way to endear yourself to some of the veteran members of the Illinois General Assembly," said state Sen. Kirk W. Dillard, a Republican who became a friend. "And working on issues like racial profiling was contentious, but Barack had a way both intellectually and in demeanor that defused skeptics." Washington Post

    Posted by Karen December 21, 07 01:13 PM
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  1. I'd like to know why an intelligent, strong, fair-minded woman is such a threat? We've seen what the male-dominated office of the presidency has done for the country, especially these last seven years. If women would unite, we could make this coming election a truly inspiring historical event. Lets show the world that we are not a nation of sheep, but a newly enervated peoples not afraid to let a woman lead us. Remember Indira Ghandi and Golda Meir, intelligent, strong, fair-minded women who actually made a difference. I really believe Hillary Clinton is the future.

    Posted by Hannah December 26, 07 03:21 AM
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  1. david wrote
    “The Democrats need to nominate a PROVEN FIGHTER who knows how to deal with Karl Rove and the GOP attack machine and that person is HILLARY CLINTON”


    Honestly, if during a debate with other Democrats she cracks and gives two different answers to the same question, what will she do against the Republicans or leaders of other countries? I am not decided yet, but I do know enough not to vote for Clinton.

    Posted by kdr December 26, 07 02:27 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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