Countdown: the final stretch to the NH primary
By Michael Kranish
Globe Staff
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Iowa is history. New Hampshire’s primary has different kinds of voters, different political dynamics, and, quite possibly, different results.
Welcome to the first entry in Primary Countdown -- in which we will monitor the trends that are expected to shape the results of the New Hampshire primary.
Now that we know the winners of the Iowa caucuses, Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama, the question is whether they can build on their momentum for victories here, or whether they will run into a granite wall here, as have so many others who left Iowa victorious only to face disappointment in New Hampshire.
History suggests both of the Iowa victors faces serious challenges here.
First, while Iowa and New Hampshire are often lumped together as small states with overwhelmingly white populations, there are many differences. Huckabee won partly because Iowa’s Republican Party is dominated by evangelical Christians who warmed to the Baptist preacher’s message. New Hampshire, by contrast, has a small evangelical population and the Republican Party here is far more moderate.
Here is some history to keep in mind: the Republican winners of the Iowa caucuses in 1996 and 2000, Bob Dole and George W. Bush, were defeated by upstarts in New Hampshire, Pat Buchanan and John McCain, respectively. But here is some more history: both Dole and Bush went on to be the nominees of their party. [Bush was not seriously challenged in 2004.]
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is hoping for a comeback win here to keep his campaign alive. It would be hard for Romney to explain a loss, especially because he is a part-time resident from a neighboring state who spent millions of dollars here. The three previous Massachusetts politicians to run for president here – Michael Dukakis, Paul Tsongas and John Kerry – all won the New Hampshire primary.
While Huckabee is unlikely to win New Hampshire, his surge is expected to help Senator John McCain, who was in a statistical tie with Romney in polls taken before the Iowa caucuses were conducted. As a result, many analysts now see McCain as the favorite here.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is expected to be stronger here than she was in Iowa because of her strong base of support. But that may not be enough. History shows that Democrats who win Iowa often are able to carry over the momentum to the New Hampshire primary. The question is whether Obama will follow the example of Kerry and use his Iowa victory to win in New Hampshire, or whether Clinton will follow her husband’s script and make a comeback here. (Bill Clinton came in second to Tsongas in 1992 but was perceived as a victor.)
With these thoughts in mind, here are some of the issues that Primary Countdown will be watching over the next several days:
- Will McCain and Huckabee continue to be allies in their fight against Romney, or will they turn against each other?
- Will Huckabee’s support from evangelicals, while much smaller in New Hampshire, be enough to give him a strong finish here in a fractured field?
- Will Hillary Clinton’s vaunted organization, including busloads of volunteers from Massachusetts and elsewhere, be enough to pull her to victory here?
- Will Romney be able to draw upon his support from former Massachusetts residents and others now living here to regain his footing and bring home a victory?
- Not to be forgotten, will Representative Ron Paul draw significant support and, if so, which Republican does he hurt the most?
To contribute to this discussion, click on the comments link.
Hillary will pull out all the stops in N.H. She must win, or her chances for the nomination take a substantial hit. Personally I hope she gets rocked in N.H. That is not an endorsement of Obama as such. He's a lightweight in my view.
As for the Repubs, may this be the beginning of the end of The Romney Campaign. As much as the southern grifter HicK, er Huckabee makes me ill, I'd still like to see Romney get derailed. And how did that bum Fog Horn Leg Horn get more votes in Iowa than RP? May Paul surprise in N.H.
My picks:
Hillary and McCain
Looks like Huck has a good bead on the nomination. Here are 10 reasons he might select Chuck Norris as his running mate
http://www.voterswrite.org/2008/01/top-10-reasons.html
Please don't let Hillary win in NH. If she wins we'll be nominating two people to act as president...her and Bill! I think we've already seen what he can do. It's time for change and I doubt she will be the person to bring change to our country.
Normally I don't put much faith in these early contests however, the Clinton campaign is in real trouble, Not only did she lose Iowa she finished third by nearly 10 percentage points. Hillary brought to the race name recognition and a sense of inevitability. This has been stripped away by her loss in Iowa and she will now need to present a vision that will compete with Obama. If she doesn't find it in New Hampshire she might get swamped by Obama's momentum.
The republican race really won't be decided until we can see how the conservative voter turnout takes hold in more conservative states. A low conservative turnout will boost McCain or Huckabee while a higher conservative turnout will set the stage for a Romney comeback or a surprise possibility from Thompson. We will have to wait and see.
Oh, and to the Republicans: How can any thinking person vote for a man who does not believe in evolution, and who claims the holocaust never happened? Duuuhhhhh.
It is frightening the Huckabee won in Iowa, but I think that's his day in the sun.
Obama's win in Iowa shows that neither power or money is a prerequisite for success. It's time to bring back a sense of logic, reason and respect. The democrates' high turn out and their choice of Obama over Hillary is a small victory on the front against extremism. The average American is tired of the rift between the spent crazies on the left and the religious freaks on the right. God help us if Huck would end up like Bush, meeting with evangelicals in the Oval Office every week for consultations.
I don't think we can say anything for sure based on Iowa. People have won in Iowa in the past and lost overall, and vice versa. I do know that Romney was hurt bad and won't do as well as a result, and that Huckabee is out of gas since he doesn't have a stratigy beond Iowa. This leaves McCain as my perdiction as the new front runner...UNLESS, I am really anxious to see how Ron Paul is going to do. He is either going to steal the thing, or do just as well as he did in Iowa. But I am excited to see.
After 8 years of "W" our country could not stand even 4 years of Huck. I happen to be a "D" but I think McCain is really the only hope for the "R's". As for my party I think our best hope is for Edwards. People "hate" Hillary and this country needs more than a Senator with a total of two years experience to run the country.
Obama '08
I can't stand reading all this garbage that Obama is for change. The only real canidate that would change the current state of America is Kucinich and no one has the guts to vote for him. So if you afraid to vote for real change you need to vote for the smartest and more experienced canidate in this election and so that leaves one canidate Hillary Clinton.
Tom, Obama has outspent Clinton by 4 million dollars so your comment about money not winning is entirely incorrect. The person who has spent the most money did win. He cannot however continue to outspend her by 4 million a state, so we shall see.
Well, I thought Huckabee would win in Iowa. I do not think he can win in New Hampshire, though I think he will win the party's nomination. I think we'll soon see Thompson and Hunter drop out of the race, which will narrow the field to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain.
I was not surprised that Hillary lost in Iowa, but she will comeback in New Hampshire. On February 5th, I think she'll get most of the states, but, most importantly, she'll win California's primary. By February 6 the democrats will have their nominee. If John Edwards doesn't finish with a strong second place or better in New Hampshire I think he will have to drop out of the race soon thereafter. He's not even going to win in South Carolina, which is likely to go for Hillary. Obama is going to get a bounce here that will narrow Clinton's lead, but I think after his candidacy is vetted in the next five days or so he'll see his numbers drop.
Again, I predict a Huckabee and Clinton race. Huckabee will have no problem beating Obama (due to inexperience), but he'll have a hell of a time beating Hillary.
Well, I thought Huckabee would win in Iowa. I do not think he can win in New Hampshire, though I think he will win the party's nomination. I think we'll soon see Thompson and Hunter drop out of the race, which will narrow the field to Huckabee, Romney, and McCain.
I was not surprised that Hillary lost in Iowa, but she will comeback in New Hampshire. On February 5th, I think she'll get most of the states, but, most importantly, she'll win California's primary. By February 6 the democrats will have their nominee. If John Edwards doesn't finish with a strong second place or better in New Hampshire I think he will have to drop out of the race soon thereafter. He's not even going to win in South Carolina, which is likely to go for Hillary. Obama is going to get a bounce here that will narrow Clinton's lead, but I think after his candidacy is vetted in the next five days or so he'll see his numbers drop.
Again, I predict a Huckabee and Clinton race. Huckabee will have no problem beating Obama (due to inexperience), but he'll have a hell of a time beating Hillary.
Oh, and Ron Paul... what's the deal with him? Why are people so fanatical about this guy! This guy supports the so-called "fair-tax", which unfairly places the tax burden on the lower and middle classes, and he believes that we are in "great danger" because the government is planning a staged terrorist attack, Gulf of Tonkins style. He is supported by many of the 9/11 conspiracy groups and he lends tacit approval to their efforts by appearing at their functions. This is lunacy in my opinion. Sure, he's against the war, that's great, but what about everything eles he stands for?
Let me get this straight; now, McCain now supports securing the border first? Is this a "flip flop"? As to his foolish "immigration" bill, which he describes as not being amnesty; how would the government have gone about collecting $2000 and ensuring people speak English? Who would’ve decided the appropriate level of English proficiency? Who would administer the tests? What if they couldn’t pass? How many tests would they be entitled to take? Would we have to tutor them? Who would audit the process? What if the "poor" immigrant cannot pay? Would we round them up? Finally, for a “small government” advocate, how did McCain expect to accomplish these tasks for upwards up 5-10 million people? How many people would it take to accomplish this “project”? Would the nation be forced to unionize the test workers and administrators and guarantee employment after completion? McCain's proposal was incredibly simplistic and (obviously) not well thought out. So, why should we make him the Republican candidate for President?
Let me get this straight; now, McCain now supports securing the border first? Is this a "flip flop"? As to his foolish "immigration" bill, which he describes as not being amnesty; how would the government have gone about collecting $2000 and ensuring people speak English? Who would’ve decided the appropriate level of English proficiency? Who would administer the tests? What if they couldn’t pass? How many tests would they be entitled to take? Would we have to tutor them? Who would audit the process? What if the "poor" immigrant cannot pay? Would we round them up? Finally, for a “small government” advocate, how did McCain expect to accomplish these tasks for upwards up 5-10 million people? How many people would it take to accomplish this “project”? Would the nation be forced to unionize the test workers and administrators and guarantee employment after completion? McCain's proposal was incredibly simplistic and (obviously) not well thought out. So, why should we make him the Republican candidate for President?
Little known facts about Barack Obama:
He was the first black president of the Harvard Law Review.
He was a Constitutional Law professor for 10 years
His most defining quality has been his ability to listen to people he disagrees with
while still effectively communicating his point. ( This statement has most often
come from those who went to college and Law school with him )
If he were to be elected he would have as much experience as any
President in history to be elected out of the Senate. The day he takes the oath of
office. ( which by the way is to uphold the Constitution) and be older than two of
them.
He is the author of two books that spent quite a while on the New York Times best
seller list. He writes like he speaks, no ghost writer needed.
Now for a personal editorial. This guy is no light weight !!! He is a deep and
complex thinker. This is a thing people learn when they turn off the TV, and open
a book. Not just his books, but all the books written by all the candidates.
As a Nation, are we so apathetic that when an option to help each other does
show up, we are to blind to see it ?
Obama comes across a nice guy and with the charisma we are craving right now. I think we all know that this country is easily swayed by people that make us "feel good" and can effectively talk to us without political speak. I remember John and Robert Kennedy and those years. I was young and impressed then. But I believe we are truly "dumbed down." Look what happened in the 80's with Ronald Reagan. I even voted for him. Look what he really did to this country. Look what happened in 2000 and 2004. We elected probably the most inexperienced person in the whole U.S. to be our President based on the same kind of b.s. and look what happened. We are in an incredible mess. Why do people have such fickle memories or is it that they are so young they don't have a sense of history? I realize Hillary isn't as charismatic and there are people that don't like her because of whatever they read, but I feel so much more comfortable that she can win the fight against whoever the GOP throws at us. She is definitely more capable from all the objective indicators I know. So, convince me that Barack Obama has the stuff to carry us out of this mess. More importantly, look at the pluses and the minuses (regardless of his rhetoric and appeal) and convince me he can beat the Republicans. We cannot afford to risk this election because we "hope" he can pull it off.
ummm... could anyone tell me where mitt romney will be in this primary.
Hillary this is your call, you can do it., experience and knowledge are the things you have. Obama, lets know more about his background. We are not playing school this time round, we need a President with a knowledge of how this country should be run not someone who jumps in an out of wars. You are right Hillary speaks and acts like she is a pro, this is because she shas the professional knowlege of how and what to say, I love Bill Clinton, he was one of the most knowledgeable presidents we have ever had. Republicans rode him to the ground, how many other senitors and presidents have had affairs hidden, Republican have had how many homesexuals in the closet? Get real, we need a change and the one person, we can depend of is Hillary Clinton, she is a women and she is the only person to turn this United States back into a Nation by the people for the people, the age is good and the lady is a lady and knows what she is talking about in dealing with the other Nations, we want peace NOT war and we need someone in the white house who is able to perform and communicate with the rest of the world, not a war monger. LET GO HILLARY! We as women in AMERICA salute you.
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