Two contests in one for Democrats in Iowa

By Marcella Bombardieri, Globe Staff

DES MOINES -- Tonight's Iowa caucuses will not decide who will ultimately be the Democratic presidential nominee, but the shortened window before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary means that the winner can expect a disproportionate boost and the second- and third-place finishers will be burdened with grave worries.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both have the money and national organization to stay in the race through Feb. 5, when almost half the states go to the polls, but the two senators still face the strong possibility that Iowa will create a domino effect. That is, unless they and John Edwards end up essentially tied in Iowa – an unusual outcome but one that polls suggest is a realistic possibility.

"Both have an opportunity to run the table. A good night for Obama will give him momentum, and a good night for Clinton will put her back in the driver's seat," Dean Spiliotes, a political analyst in New Hampshire, said before the caucus results were available. "If the two are neck-and-neck, then all bets are off."

Edwards, in contrast, is far weaker outside of Iowa, has less money, and probably needs to win in order to have a serious shot at the nomination, said Spiliotes and other analysts.

As the top three duked it out, there was what amounts to an entirely separate Democratic contest: for fourth place.

Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have all, in effect, acknowledged they needed to place at least fourth in Iowa to stay in the race.

"We think there are four tickets out of Iowa," said Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for Richardson. "The final four candidates are headed to New Hampshire and will be onstage at the ABC debate [tomorrow night], and we think we'll be one of them."

The Dodd campaign seemed today to be preparing for the possibility the Connecticut senator, who moved his family to Iowa for the final weeks of the campaign, would drop out of the race. He told Fox News that he "may be going to Hartford" Friday, when he presumably would announce his withdrawal.

A tracking poll released today showed Richardson in fourth with 7 percent, Biden in fifth with 5 percent, and Dodd in sixth with 1 percent. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll had Obama at 31 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, ahead of Edwards with 27 percent and Clinton at 24 percent.

Iowa is particularly important to Obama because it will help him win votes in New Hampshire from independents, said Stephen Ansolabehere, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Clinton is leading in New Hampshire polls, and spokesman Doug Hattaway said that she should do well because "a broader sample of people" participate in the primary compared to the caucuses, which he said are attended by "an activist core."

Ansolabehere argued that Iowa and New Hampshire are less crucial to Clinton because she is polling so well in bigger Feb. 5 states like California and New York.

And what about the fourth ticket out of Iowa? Ansolabehere said it really doesn't matter.

"They don't have the resources, they don't have the organization, they don't have the popular appeal," he said. "So I just don't see any of them being credible right now."