Clinton, Obama camps play expectations game
By Susan Milligan, Globe Staff
CLEVELAND -- The Democratic presidential campaigns, heading into critical contests in Ohio and Texas next month, are waging competing battles with a similar strategy: lower expectations for yourself, and raise them for your opponent.
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois won Wisconsin Tuesday by well more than expected, his campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters in a conference call today. That's great momentum -- but don't expect him to win the big prizes of Texas and Ohio, he said.
And Senator Hillary Clinton of New York is well-positioned to compete in Texas, which has many Latino voters sympathetic to Clinton, and in Ohio, where working-class voters have a high opinion of her, said Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist. But don't expect a blow-out, the campaign said.
"We don't expect any particular margin,'' said Harold Ickes, Clinton's senior adviser.
The Obama campaign, flush from its ninth and tenth straight victories Tuesday in Wisconsin and Hawaii, insists that Clinton needs lopsided wins in almost every state and territory left to vote, or she will not be able to secure a majority of pledged delegates. By the Obama campaign's count, the Illinois senator is 159 pledged delegates ahead of Clinton.
"She'd have to win pretty much all the states, including states where we're favored'' to dominate, Plouffe said. "This isn't simply a question of Senator Clinton needing to win the raw vote'' in Texas and Ohio, he said. "In order for them to really erode the pledged delegate lead, they probably have to win both those states by more than 20 [percentage] points.''
The Clinton campaign refused to say how big its wins needed to be, noting that neither candidate is likely to secure the 2,025 delegates needed to sew up the nomination by the end of the primary process, and will have to turn to superdelegates to reach the magic number.
"We expect to do well'' in Texas and Ohio. But "there is no question that they are critically, critically important,'' said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director.
Democratic party rules generally allocate pledged delegates proportionately by congressional district, meaning that the actual number of delegates awarded to each candidate might be very close, even if one wins by five or six percentage points statewide. Plouffe estimated that Clinton would need to win 70 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to pull ahead.
The Clinton campaign does not seem confident it can take back the lead among pledged delegates, but hopes to get the nomination with superdelegates, which Ickes today called "automatic delegates.''
"We expect to narrow that gap substantially by the end of this process,'' Ickes said. "At the end of this process, neither candidate will have the delegates to cinch the nomination'' and will need superdelegate support, he added.
Simply put, Hillary Clinton cannot expect to succeed with a lopsided superdelegate count as these delegates usually go with the momentum at the end. Unless Obama makes a major misstatement(unlikely) on Thursday night in the debate, he wins by a larger than expected count. Hillary will never beat Obama at this point by over 20 percentage points in both Ohio and texas. She has to say or do something dramatic in texas. As Obama just got the teamsters and clinched his gap in Ohio, Hillary can only count on texas. This means she has to pick a Mexican/Texan Vice President ( or secretary of State) in the next two weeks as opposed to three months from now. Seems like Bill Clinton has to chow down some Burritos in the next few weeks. Pass the Pepto.
I believe that McCain has sold his sole to the devil (W) to get W's campaign support and campaign fundraising. McCain has accepted the following three conditions in exchange: *** He will keep the present corrupt cabinet and appointees;
***He will keep the war going;
***All W’s sham government/military contractors will be left unsupervised and un-audited. In return they will continue funding W’s elite inner circle of upper government GOP politicians including newly initiated John McCain.
Karl Rove, with access to confidential FBI files and domestic wiretapping of all candidates and their backers provided by W’s Department Of Justice appointees, is ready to start running smear campaigns on the Democratic nominee when he/she is officially named by the Democratic party.
Does anyone in the Democratic party still think that a candidate who's lost 10 straight primaries by double digit margins through misamanagement and arrogance has any chance of winning a general election? Sen. Clinton talks about managing the government but can't even run her campaign intelligently. Time to bow out, Hillary. Obama rocks!
Pledged deligates can vote at will. The Clintons will go after both the Automatic and Pledged deligates. In politics there is no shame.
We wouldn't vote for Clinton for President but would for Obama. We've voted solid Republican for over half a century.
The people should decide this election not Superdelegates. We do not need a mock Supreme Court to decide the Democratic nominee. This would be the beginning of the end for the Democratic party for years to come should this happen. The superdelegates should follow the lead of the popular vote for the Nominee. Michigan and Florida broke the DNC rules. It's to late to change the rules after the game has started. The DNC would appear impotent at best should the rules change to favor a particular candidate.
Has anyone paid attention to the states that Obama has won compared to the states that Clinton has won? If you notice Clinton has won the most important states in the union for Democrats, Obama has racked up general election red states. The delegate count is in no way so lopsided to the point that Clinton should be counted out. Obama has no substance behind his words, if people buy into them, as the people of MA bought into Deval's meaningless message then our next president will be McCain. WAKE UP people look at the facts, read between the lines, and do your duty as an American, look at the person you are throwing your support behind and say how real are they? How real is their message? What real plans do they have… and then vote Clinton!
Before long, the Clinton campaign will be forced to assess the value of continuing the campaign against the cost of fracturing the party at the convention. The prospect of a superdelegate fight at the convention at the time party unity is needed is ridiculous. Only by dropping out of the race and throwing her support behind Obama will Hillary preserve her standing in the party.
The way in which the democratic party is divided is ridiculous. The republicans(with the exception of Huckabee), as bull-headed as they are, are at least smart enough to see the big picture and realize that in order to win the general election this November, the party needs to be united. Why is it that the Clinton campaign is blind to this? Why are Obama and Clinton at eachother's throats, when the real opponent is already getting ready for November? Even with the super-delegates giving her the nod at the convention to run for the presidency, the party will be so divided by that time that McCain will surely be the next president... and America will continue trudging down the same path she's been on for the past 8 years.
God help this country if either one of those two get to be president. Obama with his empty promises and Clinton with nothing but her own interest at heart certainly not this country only her own personal gain I wonder how anyone that is a thinking person could even consider these two. Talk about needing to wake up sounds like alot of you liberals need to do just that. But I know its hard for you think rationally and if you throw facts and figures at you or ask you a direct YES or NO question you cant answer, you avoid the issue or just merely change the subject or go into a rage. America is going to be in a sad state if either gets the presidency. Footnote I hope though that Obama crushes hillary in the next round of primaries. So we can put the clintons to rest permanently and the rest of the thinking population out of our misery. What an arrogant peice of work she is. But then look at bill himself.
Dear Democrat:
Why has Obama nothing behind his words but Clinton has? Their platforms are nearly identical. So on top of identical platforms you have one person who seems to be galvanizing large groups of voters through a message of hope. So far we've gotten an ill prepared Clinton, versus a dogged idealist in Obama. Given identical platforms think I'll take dogged idealism over ill prepared arrogance.
Where is the firewall that she was building? Has the firewall been compromised? I cannot believe they have no shame in trying to fool the public again. Here again, the Clintons claimed a week ago that they were building an insurmountable security force; unfortunately, it seems that it is about to be crumble.
They start to sound like the other candidate from New York who was building a firewall in Florida.
I hope that she candid enough to quit as Bill Clinton stated that she must win both Texas and Ohio in order to remain competitive.
Hillary please do not lower expectation; get ready to quit if you do not win both state, OH & TX, so we could start shaping the contest to win in November.
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