Analysis: For McCain, increasing Iraq violence may be an issue

Speaking in Kansas City today, presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain portrayed the troop surge in Iraq as working and depicted his Democratic presidential rivals as misguided for seeking additional troop withdrawals.

However, a Globe article today offered a less rosy view of Iraq, reporting a recent spike in violence that corresponds to a reduction of troops over the past three months:

"The rise in violence - blamed on both Shi'ite militants and Sunni extremists allied with Al Qaeda - has prompted war critics to argue that President Bush's surge of 30,000 more troops last year, designed to stabilize the nation, merely postponed the inevitable deadly chaos that will follow an eventual US withdrawal.

Other analysts question whether the US strategy planted the seeds for greater bloodshed by funding, and arming, various Sunni and Shi'ite factions who may eventually battle one another or fight among themselves."

What's more, the troop withdrawals aren't over. Plans call for a reduction of another 24,000 troops by the end of July, ultimately leaving 140,000 in the country.

A bloody spring in Iraq could put a speed bump in McCain's campaign as it gears up for the general election. The Arizona senator has linked his candidacy to his support for Iraq, even saying he'd rather lose the election than the war. He was one of the most vocal and ardent backers of the troop surge, and he sometimes invokes it on the campaign trail as an example of his ability to make difficult decisions.

But even with the surge, the Iraq war remains unpopular. In a CBS poll released March 18, 53 percent of respondents said they believed the war was going badly for the US, and 59 percent said the US did not do the right thing in invading the country.

McCain has thus far remained largely unscathed by his support for the war. The initial drop in violence that followed the surge vindicated him to some voters, while economic fears have shoved Iraq into the background for others.

But as the Arizona senator prepares for the general election, his stance on Iraq poses new challenges he didn't face during the primaries. McCain now needs to appeal to independent voters too, a group generally less supportive of the war than the Republicans he courted during the primaries. Additionally, McCain's Republican challengers largely agreed with him on the war, while his Democratic opponent -- be it Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama -- will likely run on a platform of additional troop withdrawals.

The violence levels in Iraq still pale in comparison to those before the surge. But if deaths continue to increase as troops return from Iraq over the next four months, McCain's support for the war could emerge as a thorny campaign issue.