Clinton barely narrows delegate gap

Obama Campaign's Memo to Superdelegates
April 24, 2008 7:13 p.m.
TO: Superdelegates

FR: Obama Campaign

RE: The strongest candidate to face John McCain

DA: April 24, 2008

Who's the strongest candidate to take on John McCain?

After 45 contests, Senator Obama has won more delegates, twice as many states and territories, and more of the popular vote. He's won in every part of the country, and has scored victories among every segment of electorate. He's inspired Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, building an unprecedented coalition of more than 1.4 million contributors. And when it comes to head-to-head match-ups versus John McCain, Obama performs better than Clinton in key states and shows the potential to put new states in play for Democrats up and down the ballot.

Polling data from across the country, from large states and small, reflects the advantage Senator Obama would bring in a race this fall. His ability to expand the Democratic base, and his ability to capture the crucial Independent vote, make him a stronger candidate than Senator Clinton, who would enter the fall campaign with the highest unfavorable ratings of any nominee in half a century.

Big States

• California: Obama beats McCain by 27, Clinton beats him by 23. (SurveyUSA, 2/23)

• New York: A February poll of Clinton's home state shows her beating McCain by 11, while Obama beats McCain by 10. (Quinnipiac, 3/18)

• New Jersey: Obama and Clinton both beat McCain by 5. (Farleigh Dickinson, 3/30)

• Illinois: Obama beats McCain by 29 in his home state, while Clinton wins by 9. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)

Traditional Battlegrounds

• Iowa: Obama up 7, Clinton down 6. (SurveyUSA, 4/17),
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 31. (Rasmussen, 3/31)

• North Carolina: Clinton trails McCain by 11, Obama ties him. (Rasmussen, 4/10)
Among Independents: Obama up 8, Clinton down 16. (Rasmussen, 4/10)

• Oregon: Obama up 9, Clinton up only 1 (SurveyUSA, 4/17) A march poll showed Obama up 6 and Clinton down 6 (Rasmussen, 3/26)
Among Independents: Obama up 11, Clinton up 4. (Rasmussen, 3/26)

• Wisconsin: Obama up 5 while Clinton ties. (SurveyUSA, 4/17) A March poll showed Obama up 4 and Clinton down 4. (WPR, 3/26)
Among Independents: Obama up 17, Clinton up 2. (Rasmussen, 3/26)

• Michigan: Obama trailing by 1, Clinton trailing by 3. (Rasmussen, 3/25) A February poll showed Obama up 8 and Clinton tied. (Rasmussen, 2/17)

• New Mexico: Obama up by 3, Clinton down by 3. (Rasmussen, 4/8)
Among Independents: Obama up 8, Clinton down 5. (Rasmussen, 4/8)

• Nevada: Obama leads by 4, Clinton leads by 1. (Rasmussen 3/19)

• Minnesota: Obama up 14, Clinton up 5. (Rasmussen, 4/22)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 14. (Rasmussen 3/19)

• Pennsylvania: Clinton up 9, Obama up 8 (Rasmussen, 4/9)
Among Independents: Obama down 1, Clinton down 19. (Rasmussen, 4/9)

Making new states competitive

• Colorado: Obama up 3, Clinton down 14. (Rasmussen, 4/19) A February poll showed up Obama up 9 and Clinton down 6. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 13. (Rasmussen, 3/17)

• North Dakota: Obama up 4, Clinton down 19. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 29. (Survey USA, 2/28)

• Virginia: Obama down 8, Clinton down 16. (SurveyUSA, 4/17)
Among Independents: Obama up 10, Clinton down 8. (SurveyUSA, 3/16)

• Montana: Obama down 5, Clinton down 18 (Rasmussen, 4/6)
Obama down 2, Clinton down 12 (Rasmussen, 4/6)

• Texas: Obama down only 1, Clinton down 7 (SurveyUSA, 2/28)

Maybe someone could help with this. Did Clinton actually win by double digits? I've seen reports that she won by 9.2 points. I'm no mathematician, but I don't think that rounds to 10 points.

Hillary is becoming a thorn on the side of millions who want to rid America of the GOP extremists. She needs to be pressured to retire. This endearing couple don't seem to realize that people do not grow with age and Obama is merely the torch bearer for a new generation of young Americans who know better.

Clinton, though not as smart as the her spin doctors would have us believe - she failed her DC bar exam few times before finally passing. I passed mine the first time, so am I more qualified than her?- is still smart enough to understand the little math here. Of course she has been acting as though she has no idea that the lead held by Obama is insurmountable by any legitimate means.

Hence the rumour that she is cooking something dirty up to snatch the nomination by some tricks at which she is so good. The endless blah, blah by Clinton and her supporters in their stupid attempt to sit the Mi and Fl delegates is one of those of course. Clinton knows that the party elders are not very strong so if she blah blahs long enough, she believes that they will just give her what she wants just to shut her up. It won't work this time. Even those usually weak party leaders have had enough of Clinton brand's toilet politics - just litsen to her operation 'OBLITERATIN OF IRAN' - they are finally going to show her the door. The woman is insane!

. Even with such a big win...Hillary got 10 million, Obama got 3 new superdelegates....you know the ones her and Bill have been pestering for sometime to back her. If Barack blows her out with a 20 point win in North Carolina, CNN will report that it was the black vote that went for Obama. I looked in the mirror this morning after I voted for Obama and I saw a white face. The Clinton camp is working overtime to perpetuate the notion that Governor Rendell put forth... "there are some people in Pennsylvania that will not vote for a black man" this puts Obama in a though spot because he is part black and part white. Listen to Clinton's past speeches. She panders to voters of every state with what they want to hear. She is a vision of olden day monarchies that used to travel down the street and throw money to the poor people.

So, Pennsylvanians dropped the ball and voted for the gal, who helped push NAFTA through - while ignoring the dude, who spent his early years finding jobs for those who'd lost them.

I guess, they're just following Ohio's example.

2205 to secure nomination? Where did that come from?

DELEGATE MATH
292 OBAMA ?
TO VICTORY

DID HE PICK UP SOME TODAY

436 HILLARY?
THINK SHE GOT A COUPLE TOO
SO 700 LEFT 408 ELECTED
SPLIT ELECTED 204 OBAMA NEED 78 OF 300 SUPERS

END THE DRAMA
ELECT OBAMA

I'm not sure where you heard that Clinton won Pennsylvania by double digits. Every count I have seen is 9.3% or 9.4%.

Clinton DID NOT win PA by 10%. That is flatly inaccurate.

If Obama nominated for President we don't have no choice with our camp but to vote McCain instead because you put down your colleage Democrat period

Ron - I couldn't have stated any better. Kudos! Even if there is a huge impact for
Obama via Black voters, who cares? They never make an issue when a huge block
of really stupid people (wouldn't it be interesting to compare the intelligence of the
Clinton vs Obama supporters?) vote for Hillary :) Signed, a Wisconsin white male
over 50 who voted for Obama..... Mark

Yes elect obama, then we can have our second civil war and maybe the right side will win this time.

Clinton is destroying the Democrat Party for "her" personal glory and Bill's of course, He want's the White House again, so he can have some more interns

I'm an Obama supporter and for my own sake would like this primary to be over. I'm tired of her style of campaigning and am itching to see what the general election will be like with two candidates that both seem to be against dirty politics. McCain is actively going after those that use Obama's middle name and who bring up the whole Rev. Wright "issue". Obama seems to only go negative when attacked too. I know Clinton supporters won't remember this, but he spoke mostly of himself in this election until Hillary started throwing anything she could find at him. When he was behind, I might add, he did not throw the kitchen sink and nor did any of the other Democratic candidates.

If both Obama and McCain campaign without scandal politics and constant cheap shots, it will be like no election I've ever seen. Imagine: actual issues and differences of opinions on solutions to real problems may be the deciding factor this time.

I just fear that if Hillary gets out the wrong way it could really hurt the Democrats. If her supporters believe she was unfairly pushed out by a group of party insiders it will hurt Obama, and that's why he is saying that he'd like her to continue as long as she likes. Don't get me wrong: I want her out, but I want her to do it in a way that doesn't destroy the party, and I'm rather doubtful of her motives, so we'll see how this goes. The best is if she actually falls far enough behind for it to be absurd for her to continue. She's almost there: even the best scenarios for May 6 would mean she needs 80% wins in the rest of thes states, and that's just not going to happen. We'll see.

As for why this is reported as a 10 point win, it's because of a trick of the math: rounding the totals in the primary yields a 45% vs. 55% estimate which appears to be 10%. The fact that it was a 45.4% to 54.6% split is too complicated for the media to tell us: they just round both numbers and then subtract.

This race is over.The Clinton's seem to believe this is their party.The coronation of Hillary will never happen.It is time for a reality check.

So she gained EIGHT DELEGATES by winning by less than 10%! And 6 weeks ago she was leading by 20%.

I honestly believe her "big win" was due to her kitchen sink, Rovian tactics she threw at him till something stuck. HRC and Rendel perpetuating the "some people in PA just won't vote for a black man". How proud you must be of yourselves!

Calling Obama an elitist who doesn't care about working class people when this man graduated as president of harvard law review, he could have gone literally ANYWHERE. He could have made 6 figures right away in any law firm or started out with the prestige or power clerking for the US Supreme Court. Instead, he rolled up his sleeves and worked as a community organizer on the south side of Chicago, making about $10,000 a year.
The Clintons - despite what she says NOW - always supported NAFTA.
Just because she can swig beer does not mean she is a working class hero.

Wake up America, and especially Indiana. Obama is your best choice for President.

Obama is not perfect but, he is saner than the other two. Pastor Wright is not my cup of tea but that will not stop me for voting for B. H. Obama.

If the Hillary campaign is already 10 million dollars in debt during the primaries, how can we trust her with our nation's budget? All that will result with her method of spending is higher taxes and even more national debt. Hillary was expected to take PA by double digits, therefore she is losing ground across the board.
The American people do not like being lied to, so why will people want to vote fore some one they think is honest only half the time.
In terms of media coverage, what about equal airtime?
Obama clearly has an advantage over McCain in the General Elections. What remains to be seen is how long it takes for others to see that as well.
Whoever gets the suport of Jimmy Carter will also be accused of supporting Hamas.

The Democratic Presidentiial Primary is over when either candidate receives 2,024 delegates. Until then ... GAME ON!

I think Hillary is turning more and more voters against her with each passing day.

She behaves like someone who has never been a schoolyard bully before in her life and is suddenly trying to act the part.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said in the last debate. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
I ask you, why should the US do any obliterating when Israel is perfectly able to do that by itself with their nuclear arsenal of 200-500 warheads?

The question itself is ridiculous, since Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons and claims to be pursuing only a peaceful nuclear energy program, confirmed by the international governing body, the IAEA. On the other hand, Israel continually threatens Iran with attacks if it doesn’t cease its nuclear program. Iran has never attacked anyone before while the USA and Israel are constantly attacking nations in the region. There is a real disconnect between reality and what Clinton and Obama for that matter, are talking about.

It is very ugly to speak of the obliteration of a nation. It reminds me of the jubilation over the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The wholesale slaughter of men, women, children, elderly, cripples etc.

Hillary gives us reasons every day as to why she must not be elected.

Clinton had 9.2% more than Obama. According to Clinton that is a double digit lead. One of the sniper bullets hit the speech area of her brain forcing her to say double when she meant single. The news outlets that repeat that have the excuse that they want the contest to continue, it's good for business.

Clinton had a single digit lead.

Clinton claims she leads the popular vote. She agreed and signed with DNC that Florida and Michigan will not count, Now she says, if I count those two states, I have more people voted for me. I am not surprised by her claims, but I am surprised that the main media are validating and repeating this absurd statement... Oh, I forgot that it is all about rating, and the longer Dems FIGHT each other, the better it is for CNN and others. Call it Job security for bashing Obama.

Not discouraging the racist tendencies felt by part of the Pennsylvania electorate is no way to claim victory for someone who desires to lead the supposedly all-inclusive Democratic party. Senator Clinton (and Governor Rendell) should both be ashamed of her win.

As a Southern Democrat I find their silence sickening and their tactics a rude reminder that power (to some) is more important than integrity.

NOT 10%! That's 9.2% If you're going to round, then that would be 9%, not 10%.
99.44% Reporting
Clinton
1,237,696
54.6%
-----------------------
Obama
1,029,672
45.4%
------------------
NBC News has learned that a major fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, former Amb. to Chile Gabriel Guerra-Mondragon is leaving the campaign to join up Barack Obama's campaign. Officially dubbed a "Hillraiser," Guerra-Mondragon raised nearly $500,000 for Clinton's campaign, according to some estimates. He has been informing people inside Clintonworld this week in what's been described as some tough conversations. A formal announcement of a role for Guerra-Mondragon on Obama's national finance committee will be made next week. Guerra-Mondragon was appointed Amb. to Chile by Pres. Clinton in '94 and served until '98.

Among the reasons for Guerra-Mondragon to defect, according to one informed source, was he was uneasy with the tone of the Clinton campaign and was beginning to worry about what this would mean for the general election.

Si, podemos!

Senator Clinton reminds me of Senator Palpatine of "Star Wars: Attack of the Clones".....no one knew that Palpatine was a Sith lord, who created the clone wars to secure and maintain power....is it too far a reach to say that Clinton is fomenting unrest using GOP tactics and surrogates, to achieve the same goal?

"This race is over".

It certainly is.

The Hildebeast must be waiting for an assassin's bullet to take out Obama. I wouldn't think this possible of anyone ... except the Clintons.

You certainly can tell the BITTER Obama supporters vs the Clinton supporters.
Being an independent and watching everything - it makes me think that Obama supporters are getting nervous here at least on this bias site.

Hillary Clinton, as with the Bosnia sniper fire delusion, suffers from a fantasy that she is the front-runner, and with her forever shifting goalposts, her new fuzzy math and kitchensink-sewer, failed and bankrupt campaign, wants Obama to give her FREE AIR TIME to debate her for the TWENTY-SECOND time. I am an Asian American feminist older than Mrs. Clinton and as an American patriot, I need to do the right thing and tell Mrs. Clinton (and impeached intern-seducing Bill), shut up already! The Clinton dynasty has been spoiling not just Obama's race in November but also the entire Democratic Party and its representatives'--congressmen, governors, district officers, mayors, etc, etc--abiliity to win in future elections. Bill is fighting Obama to return to the WH for a third term, and Obama has been fighting not just two Clintons (both playing every dirty card in politics) but also the GOP and the mainstream media who want to see the contest continue and their high ratings maintained. Senator Obama MUST denounce and reject Hillary's shameless agenda, to gain free public airtime off his back. He MUST stop treating Hillary as an older white woman like his mother and therefore to be respected and see her for the corrupt (25 million dollars gained from influence peddling last year alone), lying (Bosnia sniper fire), bullying (Judas name-calling), ruthless (just look at her ads), unelectable (highest negatives ever in a presidential candidate, and negatives increasing every day) small human that she is. He MUST begin to draw the contrasts in campaign tone, character, and track record on community work and protection of our constitution that show Hillary as the base candidate that she is.