Clinton gets make-or-break win in Pennsylvania

By Scott Helman and Susan Milligan, Globe Staff

PHILADELPHIA -- Senator Hillary Clinton scored a critical victory tonight in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary, adding another key swing state to her win column and setting up a showdown with Senator Barack Obama in two weeks in Indiana and North Carolina.

Clinton, drawing on family roots in the state and her appeal to white, blue-collar voters, overcame Obama's strength in Philadelphia and among younger voters to capture a state both campaigns considered a must-win for her to stay in the race. But it wasn't clear from early returns whether her margin was big enough to halt Obama's momentum toward the nomination, or to cut into his lead in delegates.

With 45 percent of precincts reporting tonight, Clinton was leading 54 percent to 46 percent.

Her victory, amid record turnout and a massive influx of new voters, was the latest in a string of primary successes late in the race that have kept her competitive just as it appeared Obama was about to clinch the Democratic nomination.

As news organizations began calling Pennsylvania for Clinton, elation -- and a measure of relief -- filled the Philadelphia hotel ballroom where she addressed supporters. Tom Petty's "American Girl" blasted through the loudspeakers as Clinton's fans, staff, and volunteers hugged each other and jumped gleefully in the air.

"Don't write her off," her campaign chairman, Terry McAullife, told CNN from the ballroom. "She's fighting every day."

The races in Indiana and North Carolina, which hold primaries May 6, have already begun: Clinton is scheduled to campaign in Indianapolis on Wednesday, and Obama was already in Evansville tonight hosting a massive rally.

Despite her win, the New York senator -- while insisting she is determined to fight for the nomination all the way to the Democratic convention in late August -- faces daunting challenges to convince superdelegates and potential donors that she is the stronger candidate to take on Republican John McCain in the fall.

Obama has out-dueled Clinton among both superdelegates and contributors in recent weeks. He started the month with more than $41 million on hand to spend on the primary campaign, while Clinton was $1 million in debt. And he has been racking up endorsements from superdelegates -- the elected officials and party activists whose preferences will almost certainly determine the nominee -- while Clinton has picked up just a handful.

"She lives to fight another day, but her road to the nomination is difficult,'' said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democratic Network, who worked on Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign but has not endorsed a candidate this cycle. "This is going to be a bitter fight no matter what.''

Clinton campaign spokesman Mo Elliethee dismissed suggestions that she was facing a money crunch, saying that her supporters always come through when she needs them. "Every time people try to count her out, they rise to the occasion," he said. "We believe they're going to be there for her."

The race now heads into a final stretch that could bring unprecedented attention to far-flung places like Guam and Puerto Rico and force the candidates to travel from West Virginia to Oregon to woo voters. Obama is favored in four states -- North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, which award a total of 198 pledged delegates. Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, whose delegate counts total 134. Guam and Indiana appear to be toss-ups.

Clinton's campaign, trailing in the delegate count, popular vote totals, and the number of contests won, insists that her win last night further proves she can win the large, industrial states Democrats must capture to win the White House in November. If Clinton can continue to sow doubts about Obama's electability, she has some chance of getting the nomination, said Doug Schoen, a Democratic consultant not affiliated with either campaign.

"You just soldier on,'' Schoen said.

Obama's campaign called the big-state argument specious, arguing that Obama would also be a strong contender in those states. "Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary,'' Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a campaign strategy memo earlier today.

Further, many Democrats also worry about Clinton's prospects against McCain, in part because polls have shown a growing number of voters find her untrustworthy, and her negative ratings are higher than they were when she started her campaign.

The battle for Pennsylvania grew especially testy in the last days. Clinton ran a TV ad featuring an image of Osama bin Laden and implying that Obama is not tough enough to be president. Obama countered with an ad accusing Clinton of running a campaign of "fear.''

Both Democrats ran two-tiered campaigns, often talking to voters across the state about weighty issues such as the economy, healthcare, and Iraq while also accusing the other of fundamental character flaws. Clinton accused Obama of disrespecting Pennsylvania voters when he said small-town Americans were "bitter'' over their economic troubles and "cling to guns or religion," while Obama accused Clinton of misrepresenting his positions and running a Republican-style attack campaign.

But while most Pennsylvania voters said Clinton's campaign was more negative than Obama's, they appeared largely uninfluenced by those tactics, according to polling and interviews. Despite a frenzied, six-week campaign to shake up each other's base, the electorate largely split as expected.

Obama captured large majorities of African-American, upper-middle class, and young voters, according to exit polls conducted for the television networks and the Associated Press. Clinton did well among older people, working-class whites, and women -- all groups well represented in Pennsylvania's population.

Election officials reported record turnout. The primary generated intense interest on the streets of Philadelphia, which for weeks had been crawling with campaign volunteers, Democratic activists, and scores of journalists. Supporters of both candidates yesterday were out in force at city parks, street corners, and polling sites, chanting, waving signs, and making last-minute pleas to voters.

"I want to make history with the first African-American president,'' said Asia Reina, a 20-year-old Temple University student, explaining her vote for Obama.

Howard Cross, a 49-year-old general contractor, also cast a ballot for Obama, saying he liked "his whole campaign, his whole desire -- reaching the people, relating to the people."

But Hillary Lebowitz, a 30-year-old school social worker who was getting lunch nearby, said she voted for Clinton because she has more substance, especially on education issues. Clinton's long Washington tenure, she said, was an asset.

"You need the connections and experience to actually get anything done," Lebowitz said. "[Obama] has a lot of great ideas, but I just don't see how he's going to put them into practice.''

No matter who they voted for, 54 percent of Democratic voters said they believe that Obama will be the eventual nominee, while 43 percent said Clinton will win the nomination, according to the exit polling. It also found that 38 percent would be satisfied with either as the nominee, but a majority would only be satisfied if their candidate wins -- 32 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for Obama.