Clinton gets make-or-break win in Pennsylvania
By Scott Helman and Susan Milligan, Globe Staff
PHILADELPHIA -- Senator Hillary Clinton scored a critical victory tonight in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary, adding another key swing state to her win column and setting up a showdown with Senator Barack Obama in two weeks in Indiana and North Carolina.
Clinton, drawing on family roots in the state and her appeal to white, blue-collar voters, overcame Obama's strength in Philadelphia and among younger voters to capture a state both campaigns considered a must-win for her to stay in the race. But it wasn't clear from early returns whether her margin was big enough to halt Obama's momentum toward the nomination, or to cut into his lead in delegates.
With 45 percent of precincts reporting tonight, Clinton was leading 54 percent to 46 percent.
Her victory, amid record turnout and a massive influx of new voters, was the latest in a string of primary successes late in the race that have kept her competitive just as it appeared Obama was about to clinch the Democratic nomination.
As news organizations began calling Pennsylvania for Clinton, elation -- and a measure of relief -- filled the Philadelphia hotel ballroom where she addressed supporters. Tom Petty's "American Girl" blasted through the loudspeakers as Clinton's fans, staff, and volunteers hugged each other and jumped gleefully in the air.
"Don't write her off," her campaign chairman, Terry McAullife, told CNN from the ballroom. "She's fighting every day."
The races in Indiana and North Carolina, which hold primaries May 6, have already begun: Clinton is scheduled to campaign in Indianapolis on Wednesday, and Obama was already in Evansville tonight hosting a massive rally.
Despite her win, the New York senator -- while insisting she is determined to fight for the nomination all the way to the Democratic convention in late August -- faces daunting challenges to convince superdelegates and potential donors that she is the stronger candidate to take on Republican John McCain in the fall.
Obama has out-dueled Clinton among both superdelegates and contributors in recent weeks. He started the month with more than $41 million on hand to spend on the primary campaign, while Clinton was $1 million in debt. And he has been racking up endorsements from superdelegates -- the elected officials and party activists whose preferences will almost certainly determine the nominee -- while Clinton has picked up just a handful.
"She lives to fight another day, but her road to the nomination is difficult,'' said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democratic Network, who worked on Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign but has not endorsed a candidate this cycle. "This is going to be a bitter fight no matter what.''
Clinton campaign spokesman Mo Elliethee dismissed suggestions that she was facing a money crunch, saying that her supporters always come through when she needs them. "Every time people try to count her out, they rise to the occasion," he said. "We believe they're going to be there for her."
The race now heads into a final stretch that could bring unprecedented attention to far-flung places like Guam and Puerto Rico and force the candidates to travel from West Virginia to Oregon to woo voters. Obama is favored in four states -- North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, which award a total of 198 pledged delegates. Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, whose delegate counts total 134. Guam and Indiana appear to be toss-ups.
Clinton's campaign, trailing in the delegate count, popular vote totals, and the number of contests won, insists that her win last night further proves she can win the large, industrial states Democrats must capture to win the White House in November. If Clinton can continue to sow doubts about Obama's electability, she has some chance of getting the nomination, said Doug Schoen, a Democratic consultant not affiliated with either campaign.
"You just soldier on,'' Schoen said.
Obama's campaign called the big-state argument specious, arguing that Obama would also be a strong contender in those states. "Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary,'' Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a campaign strategy memo earlier today.
Further, many Democrats also worry about Clinton's prospects against McCain, in part because polls have shown a growing number of voters find her untrustworthy, and her negative ratings are higher than they were when she started her campaign.
The battle for Pennsylvania grew especially testy in the last days. Clinton ran a TV ad featuring an image of Osama bin Laden and implying that Obama is not tough enough to be president. Obama countered with an ad accusing Clinton of running a campaign of "fear.''
Both Democrats ran two-tiered campaigns, often talking to voters across the state about weighty issues such as the economy, healthcare, and Iraq while also accusing the other of fundamental character flaws. Clinton accused Obama of disrespecting Pennsylvania voters when he said small-town Americans were "bitter'' over their economic troubles and "cling to guns or religion," while Obama accused Clinton of misrepresenting his positions and running a Republican-style attack campaign.
But while most Pennsylvania voters said Clinton's campaign was more negative than Obama's, they appeared largely uninfluenced by those tactics, according to polling and interviews. Despite a frenzied, six-week campaign to shake up each other's base, the electorate largely split as expected.
Obama captured large majorities of African-American, upper-middle class, and young voters, according to exit polls conducted for the television networks and the Associated Press. Clinton did well among older people, working-class whites, and women -- all groups well represented in Pennsylvania's population.
Election officials reported record turnout. The primary generated intense interest on the streets of Philadelphia, which for weeks had been crawling with campaign volunteers, Democratic activists, and scores of journalists. Supporters of both candidates yesterday were out in force at city parks, street corners, and polling sites, chanting, waving signs, and making last-minute pleas to voters.
"I want to make history with the first African-American president,'' said Asia Reina, a 20-year-old Temple University student, explaining her vote for Obama.
Howard Cross, a 49-year-old general contractor, also cast a ballot for Obama, saying he liked "his whole campaign, his whole desire -- reaching the people, relating to the people."
But Hillary Lebowitz, a 30-year-old school social worker who was getting lunch nearby, said she voted for Clinton because she has more substance, especially on education issues. Clinton's long Washington tenure, she said, was an asset.
"You need the connections and experience to actually get anything done," Lebowitz said. "[Obama] has a lot of great ideas, but I just don't see how he's going to put them into practice.''
No matter who they voted for, 54 percent of Democratic voters said they believe that Obama will be the eventual nominee, while 43 percent said Clinton will win the nomination, according to the exit polling. It also found that 38 percent would be satisfied with either as the nominee, but a majority would only be satisfied if their candidate wins -- 32 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for Obama.
I liked the way she is trying. To her fighting spirit I would vote. Surely, she would face all the crisis the same way and wins over.
Ms.. Hillary;
MRs. Hillarly -Clinton;
Mrs. Clinton;
how can you claim a campaing win whhen my my write in vote was not even regesterd???????????????????????????????
i worked for the voting department in the state of Pennsylvania and i know that this does not mean anything. i have voted for wrire in candidates in the past and they have not been recognized or "digitally recorded"
Iworked in the elections departmnt locally and have NEVER had a write-in candidate even listed in a so-called legitimate presidential eletion"
the "VOTE BY THE PUBLIC FOR THE PUBLIC" means nothing to congress and the people that empowerer them with their funding just as the Government has gone by the way-side to support big buisiness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOU ARE JUST AS GUILTY AS YOUR HUSBAND IN THIS DECREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know that my IP address is being tracked but you are as guilty as the rest of the DIRTY politicians out there
you say one thing to get elected and will do the oposite!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that is one reason i made a write-in vote but it was not tallied!!!!!!!!!!
explain this on the news
I think Sen. Clinton is hanging in there and waiting for the other shoe to drop.
In the 1980's, in NJ, the Republicans were going to sacrafice a young congressman by running him against a Democrat that no one could possibly beat. So the race went on and Bill Smith -R ( being a good soldier) ran against Congressmen Thompson -D .
Low and behold up pops ABSCAM. Smith wins the election and Thompson ends up on the evening news taking a $45,000 bribe on tape from an Arab Sheik (really an FBI agent under cover.)
If Smith had quit, when all the odds were against him he would not be a Congressman today.
I think Sen. Clinton is waiting for the Arab Sheik to pop up.
I think Hilary has the depth experience and practical knowledge on her side. Whilst Obama is more charisma and less substance.
Obama will make a great deputy.
This time however, is Hilary's turn to be at the helm...
Go Hiliary!!!
Good thing that PA is over now.
Good thing because Hillary has to be in LA superior court for Fraud charges on the 25th.
Great timing!
I haven't heard a peep about her ACTUAL CRIMINAL charges from any dominate media source. Just more gaffes and bloopers and guilt by association charges.
I wonder if PA would have thought better if Barack had blared out all Hillarys corruption the way he was dumped on with Averys, Wright, and Rezko.
Alas it appears this thing will drag on even longer... what a shame. Nobody -NOBODY- should be running for public office while under investigation. Look it up. paulvclinton.com Whether shes guilty or not, thats for a court to decide...but it demonstrates Baracks good nature not to the throw it in her face the was much much more minor things were thrown in his...
All personalities aside you have to look at two things - The Facts and the Candidates’ Track Record of Actual Performance:
“The Clinton Administration of the 90’s gave you:
*A STRONG AMERICAN DOLLAR! When Clinton left office, the dollar had virtually TWICE the purchasing power it does today against all major currencies! For those who are not familiar with the subject of currency it is fairly straight forward: All currencies trade in pairs. When our dollar is strong against the Yen, we are able to purchase more things from Japan for less. Today our dollar is severely devalued against the Yen as well as all major currencies. This situation has put American consumers in a double bind because with rising oil prices Asia is facing inflation and is forced to charge more for the items they sell to our Country. This problem is further compounded by the fact that our dollar is already weak and not capable of purchasing much as it is.
*STRONG ECONOMY! A strong dollar, low oil and gas prices, low unemployment, low taxes, a surplus enabled the American consumer to purchase more with less.
*LOW TAXES! And for good reason - we had a surplus and not a deficit.
*AFFORDABLE HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE! The abuses of lowered interest rates in spite of rising real estate and home values had not taken place. This problem was exacerbated due the packaging and sale of sub prime and collateralized debt by major investment banks.
*AN UNRIVALED STRONG STOCK MARKET! The Stock Market, like oil, is valued and pegged to the US Dollar. When the Dow was 10,000 in 2000, approximately 80 cents fetched 1 Euro. Today $1.60 fetches 1 Euro. So if the dollar has halved its value - what is the Dow truly worth today at 12,000?
*LOW OIL AND GAS PRICES! Remember when oil was averaging $20 a barrel and gas was under $1 dollar? You had it during the Clinton Administration.
*LOW COMMODITY PRICES! With oil prices the production of commodities were cheaper to produce.
*LOW INFLATION! A time when you had low oil and commodity prices as well as asset values that were properly contained by interest rates.
*LOW UNEMPLOYMENT! With the consumer being able to purchase more for less, employment opportunities thrived with the growth of industry.
*A SURPLUS IN THE BUDGET! With the same acumen that made him a Rhodes Scholar and a centi-millionaire, Clinton’s policies helped moved us from the red into the black. Plain and simple.
*STRONGER FOREIGN RELATIONS! High tensions in the Middle East, not supply, have undoubtedly given speculators much reason to artificially push up oil prices. The Clinton’s were largely well liked and respected the world over. Should Clinton become President and the war come to an end we should see a dramatic drop in oil, gas and consequently commodity prices.
Republican, Democrat, or Independent; who would want to “Change” any of this?
Has everyone forgotten how good it was? The Clinton Administration brought you not only experience, but a proven track record! Unfortunately, Clinton’s strategists have not cut through the rhetoric. It is clear - while other candidates talk about fixing the system – the Clinton Administration actually did it. And they did it at a time when they inherited both a recession and a deficit. Who could ask for more? Why would anyone want to roll the dice on any other candidates’ plans of “idealism”?
We cannot afford to make a mistake during times like these through ignorance!
You ask the average person why they are voting who they are voting for and you get a responses like, “I always vote Republican because Democrats raise taxes!” “I don’t think a woman should be President.” “Obama’s a good speaker and he wants change!” But are those valid reasons for people to elect who we put into office as President? Unfortunately voters have been so confused by rhetoric that they really do not have a clear reason to take to the polls with them.
Voters need to be forced to think by being asked the proper questions!
Voters need to be asked the proper questions: “Do you want a strong dollar? YES? - Well the Clinton Administration gave it to you. Do you want low gas oil prices? YES? Well the Clinton Administration gave it to you.” - Address the public with the key questions that will make them think about how their vote will affect the quality of their lives and they will have a reason to say “Clinton” the day they vote. Unfortunately, most of the young people who are now eligible to vote and did not experience the prosperity of the Clinton Administration are not aware of these critical points. Whether they like Clinton or not - these are precisely the points that need to be hammered over and over again so that they can be ingrained in the publics’ minds when they are asked about Clinton’s stance.
Keep it simple, stupid.
That is what Obama has done with his message of “Change”- “simple-stupid” marketing and it is working for him - despite the fact that his political experience is limited to barely two years of junior senator experience. Albeit an accomplished and charismatic speaker, the 46 year old Obama does not possess the requisite track record that America needs. The Clintons’ experience spans two of the most successful presidential terms in American history, with Hillary’s experience dating back to the Nixon Administration.
A Powerful Combination of Intellect, Leadership and Experience!
There is much speculation in the news that Hillary will select her husband as her running mate for Vice President. She should. Although, Bill will invariably be by her side as he has throughout this campaign and like she was by his side during his two terms in office, Hillary should still officially select her husband as her running mate. America could not ask for a better combination. The Clintons helped move our Country from debt to profitability and after they left office they also made over $100 million dollars for themselves. Very smart people.
Smart People - Smart Leadership. Isn’t that what our Country needs?
GO GIRL GO. 50% + people in this country are women. 50% + are our daughters. As you did in your speech tonight, don't let America forget this or that (it is my understanding) you and bill have been working for social issues all your lives. Remind them of the respect the world had for America during bill's presidency and the respect you have had for people all over the world. I am still angry at you for not doing more to correct the health botch up as we discussed at Polly Rothstein's home. I do believe you are as bright as Oboma and much more experienced and, hopefully, like Pres. Johnson will take on the hardest, most important issues of our time.
It looks to me like people in Pennsylvania don't mind shipping their jobs to Colombia after all. The biggest winner in PA was John McCain. After Obama was ambushed on ABC, and Hillary claimed to be the "homegirl" (hometown favorite) it looks to me that emotion not logic explains what's going on with the electorate. Right now I don't care to vote in November. My little vote always gets stomped by the forces of distraction and non-sense. Here is a man Obama, who grew up struggling, and has become a great example for those who aspire to help others to better themselves, if they would only give themselves a chance. So, here we go again. The winners are those who wish to maintain the status quo. Voters accept drama, two face politicians who kiss your baby and sends your job to some third world country once they're in office, and didn't bother to tell you your skills are now obsolete in the US. Some politician who says it is ok to tell the people you have the best health care in the world, but the medical bill will force you (not if ,but when) to go bankrupt because the insurance company told you that they're not paying it. And as you lie awake at 3 AM, thinking about your kids in their bedroom. The reality of financial and job security sets in. We don't have that anymore. But, today, none of that matters, it seems to me that some people want to be listened to, paid attention to, and are satisfied by getting that far. To those who fall for the politician who promised you a job, whilethe staff is working on a deal that will send your job to Colombia or India. It is ok to go to war then get your kid back in a body bag, because we're really so strong that no one should tell us don't do this; it is wrong. It is sad, really, really sad. Every four years the elections come around and we always end up with the short end of the stick. Why ? cause we think with our hearts, and those things that are important to us, and they (the politicians) know this and use them to betray our trust. Because those issues who represent our values are left somewhere in a park in DC. I'm a Democrat, but I'm no Clinton supporter, if I vote it will be for McCain, not because I'm a hardcore conservative, but because character does matter. He tells it like it is, right or wrong, at least he is straight up, even if I don't aggree with his political ideology.
The Clintons will pick up a net gain of about 9 delegates in Pennsylvania tonight and will lose a net of around 15 in North Carolina. Indiana will be about even on May 6.
I live in Oregon and the Clintons are going to get blown out here by about 20% to the tune of about 20 net delegates for Obama. He will also win handily in Montana and South Dakota. The Clintons will win in Kentucky and West Virginia and possibly Puerto Rico. At the end of the primaries Senator Obama will still be ahead by approximately 170 delegates, with twice as many states won, and in the popular vote by about 800,000.
The Clintons needed a blowout in Pennsylvania to even stay in the game- and they did not get one- despite having the entire state Democratic machine behind them. Now they need about 75% of the remaining delegates to stay in the race. Guess what?
Not this time.
www.barackobama.com
By the way, there were twice as many people at Senator Obama's gathering in Evansville, Indiana tonight as were at the Clintons "victory" celebration in Philadelphia. Lots of confetti though.
I just hope that Hilary's Good Morning America comments about totally obliterating Iran don't get lost in the aftermath of this primary result. This woman doesn't seem to have all her oars in the water.
The people that voted for clinton have no idea what they are dealing with. All her time in politics has taught her one thing. How to steal from the american people. She knows every loop hole. Big business will come first no matter what she says. Can't you people see we are being replaced by china, where they have robot workers that only care about serving their master. Where it's ok to dump toxic waste in everyone's back yard. Big companies have no regulation which means soaring profits for them and poision blood thinner, cat food, toys, tooth paste for us. They can't even make a pair of shoes. My two pairs of wolverine boots now made in china, after two weeks the sole split in half all the way through. Total Garbage. This is all about big money US stock holders looking to clean up on cheap labor and they don't care who gets hurt as long as they fill their pockets The US has always been the heart of world technology now we are being reduced to a services country. Bush and clinton should be tried for treason and banned from this country.
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