Clinton hits double-digit lead in bellwether poll

Hillary Clinton could snag the double-digit win she wants in Pennsylvania today, according to an election-eve poll of Democrats in a bellwether county.

She led Barack Obama 52 percent to 40 percent in polling conducted Sunday and Monday in Allegheny County around Pittsburgh in a Suffolk University survey released today, a slightly larger margin than the statewide Suffolk poll done over the weekend.

Suffolk pollsters say they used similar bellwether counties to correctly predict results in prior Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Ohio. They picked Allegheny County because its election results mirrored the statewide results in the 1988 and 2000 Democratic and Republican primaries.

“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. “New bellwethers often are created every election cycle as people migrate and as development and geography-driven issues emerge. In addition, local endorsements from popular people can skew margins.”

Other recent polls have given Clinton a single-digit lead heading into today's make-or-break nomination contest, the first in six weeks.