Clinton lead hits double digits in new poll

A new poll out this morning gives Hillary Clinton a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania on the eve of Tuesday's showdown primary.

The Suffolk University telephone survey of likely Democratic voters found only 4 percent undecided and suggests that Clinton is within striking distance of the double-digit win she badly needs to build new momentum for her candidacy. Other recent polls have given Clinton a single-digit lead.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released today, for instance, gave Clinton a 51 percent to 44 percent edge, little changed from the 50-to-44 percent lead Clinton had in a similar poll a week earlier.

The Suffolk poll also uncovered more evidence of trouble for Democrats because of the bitter, protracted primary race -- 20 percent of the likely Democratic voters said they would vote for Republican John McCain in November if their preferred candidate doesn't get the nomination.

Another 20 percent said they were undecided what they would do in the fall if their choice doesn't win, and 4 percent said they would defect to independent Ralph Nader.

"Hillary Clinton's projected win in Pennsylvania poses some serious problems for the Democratic Party at this point," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "First, it continues a bitter battle between the Democratic combatants; second, with 20 percent of core Democratic supporters fleeing to McCain, electability in November becomes a quantifiable problem; and third, it begs the question of who in the Democratic Party will become the ultimate peacemaker. "

The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.