Text size +

Most Pennsylvania voters think Obama will be nominee, exit polling shows

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor April 22, 2008 06:17 PM

No matter who they voted for today, a clear majority of Pennsylvania Democrats surveyed leaving the polls said they believe that Barack Obama will be the eventual nominee.

According to the exit poll for the TV networks and the Associated Press, 54 percent said Obama, who is ahead in delegates and popular vote, will be the nominee and 43 percent said Hillary Clinton will win the nomination.

The exit poll also found that 38 percent would be satisfied with either as the nominee, but a majority would only be satisfied if their candidate wins -- 32 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for Obama.

One in five voters said they chose their candidate during the final week, while one in 10 said they made up their mind today. In prior contests, Clinton has done better among those last-day deciders. Clinton won among those who decided in the last week 56 percent to 43 percent, according to the exit poll.

Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white, most were women, and about three in 10 were age 65 or older -- three categories of voters where Clinton has done well in prior primaries.

A quarter of voters had household incomes of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree. Obama has done better among those groups.

UPDATE: The exit polls also indicate there might have been fallout over the controversy over Obama's comments about economically struggling small-town voters who are "bitter" and "cling to guns or religion."

Among voters who said they own guns, Clinton won 58 percent to 42 percent. Among those who attend religious services at least once a week, Clinton won 59 percent to 41 percent.

Obama won among first-time voters 60 percent to 38 percent, but Clinton won 56 percent to 43 percent among the majority of voters who believed the economy was the most important issue facing the country.


The exit polling was conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

14 comments so far...
  1. If they believe Obama is going to be the demoncrat nominator, why do they vote for Hillary? Obama is going to win it all. Forget PA

    Posted by silverspring April 22, 08 07:13 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. A VERY GOOD ARTICLE FROM FACTCHECK.ORG ABOUT THE RACIST THEOLOGY OF OBAMA''S CHURCH:
    The “theology” that Wright teaches at his church is nothing like Christianity as most people understand it. The brand of theology which Wright has been teaching Obama and the others at his church is called “black liberation theology.” Wright admits this and it is stated on the church's website. Black theology is based upon the premise of the white oppressor against the black oppressed. This is why, for example, that Wright refers to Jesus as black, and his killers as white. This is the only way the story of Jesus fits within this brand of “theology.” Rev. Wright cites James Cone, another proponent of black liberation theology, as his theological inspiration. Here are just a couple of James Cone's quotes: (1) “To be Christian is to be one of those whom God has chosen. God has chosen black people." (2) "While it is true that blacks do hate whites, black hatred is not racism." (3) "All white men are responsible for white oppression." (4) "Theologically, Malcolm X was not far wrong when he called the white man "the devil." (5) "If there is any contemporary meaning of the Antichrist, the white church seems to be a manifestation of it." (6) “Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community … Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love.” *** These statements, and this “theology,” are fundamentally racist and divisive. The fact that Obama has chosen to belong to this racist church for 20 years speaks volumes about his character and judgment, and flies in the face of his pronouncements about his ability and intent to “unite” this country.

    Posted by james April 22, 08 07:20 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. There is no reason to believe that the slow train wreck of a Democrat nomination process will end any time soon.

    Maybe the intelligent minority will have to split off from the far-left sychophant majority of the party before this is all over.

    They could use a lot of house-cleaning.

    Posted by One_American April 22, 08 07:28 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. If people don't vote for Barack who is not part of the system then they should never complain again about politics.

    Posted by Coatesville,pa April 22, 08 07:29 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. hillary has to many lies in her closet ,Obama is going to prove himself,forget Hillary.

    Posted by Kevin Sylvester April 22, 08 07:31 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. A lot of people do not tell the truth in exit polling. This is obvious because so many times the election results do not "gel" with the exit polling. I'm not sure why they don't tell the truth, but I can guess it's because they really still want to keep their vote private (as it should be) and some are worried that they will be seen as racists if they say they voted for Clinton. I believe if Hillary wins and has a pretty significant win in PA, that she still has a strong chance of being the nominee. If not, BO will get the nomination, and the Democrats will lose in November. There is a long time between now and November and many, many more negatives that are going to "come out" about Obama. The "Swift Boat" strategy that buried Kerry will be nothing compared to the onslaught of negatives exposed about Obama. If not Clinton, McCain will be taking the oath of office in January 2009. Believe it.

    Posted by Mod April 22, 08 07:36 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. A lot of people do not tell the truth in exit polling. This is obvious because so many times the election results do not "gel" with the exit polling. I'm not sure why they don't tell the truth, but I can guess it's because they really still want to keep their vote private (as it should be) and some are worried that they will be seen as racists if they say they voted for Clinton. I believe if Hillary wins and has a pretty significant win in PA, that she still has a strong chance of being the nominee. If not, BO will get the nomination, and the Democrats will lose in November. There is a long time between now and November and many, many more negatives that are going to "come out" about Obama. The "Swift Boat" strategy that buried Kerry will be nothing compared to the onslaught of negatives exposed about Obama. If not Clinton, McCain will be taking the oath of office in January 2009. Believe it.

    Posted by Mod1 April 22, 08 07:39 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I'll be glad to see this election over with. I don't think either of the three Democrat running for president would do a good job. Our country needs someone who can get beyond the dirty politices that we have seen thus far from both sides -- someone who really cares about our country, rather than someone who is going to take our country down the drain.

    We need a LEADER in the worst kind of way and so far we don't have one running. We surely don't need the Clinton's back in the whitehouse again -- they did nothing but sell us out when they were there the first time. What are people thinking anyway when they go to vote?

    It is very frustrating to hear people say things like: "I am voting for Hillary because I think her daughter is so cute out on the campaign trail;" "I am voting for Hillary because she is a woman and we need a woman president;" "I am voting for Obama because he is black and we need a black president," etc.

    If we can't come up with better reasons to vote than that we should stay home where we can do the least amount of damage for the USA. It is mind boggling to hear some of the voters talking about why they are voting for whom. We need someone in the Whitehouse who is there because they have the smarts to run our country -- not because of what color or gender they are. Come on people, surely you can figure out a better reason to vote for someone than that!

    Posted by Amanda April 22, 08 07:42 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I wonder what portion of those who will only be satisfied if Hillary wins are Republicans who changed party affiliation to try to get Hillary nominated to give McCain someone they think would be easy to beat. I Have not seen any numbers showing who these "Cross-overs" are voting for. Could someone post this data if it is avalible?

    Posted by adam April 22, 08 07:43 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I'm from Ireland. I don't really understand much about the the voting system in the USA but it goes on for ages. Maybe it's something to do with the sheer size and complexity of the USA but one cannot say that it is in any way undemocratic. On the contrary it is a great exercise in democracy. I love the USA. All our voting takes place on one day after about 2 or 3 weeks of intense campaigning by 4 or 5 political parties. The Irish system has been described in an article in the Economist Magazine as being fiendishly democratic. It is called proportional representation and I don't thint any other country uses it because it is so complicated. But it has the merit of giving everyone a fair shake. The 2 major political parties which attract 75% of the popular vote are broadly similiar to the Democrats and the Republicans in the USA
    The balance is a mixed bag of Greens, Indepentents and Socialists. There are no Communists, Facists, Racists or extreme groups. Irish people don't vote for people with extreme views.

    I hope Barak Obama wins in Pennsylvania; I just don't like the Clintons though they are popular with Irish people here. Bill Clinton lent a lot of good support to settling our dispute with the UK over Nothern Ireland. I like the guy but I suspect that he is "tthe man behind the woman".

    but they grew out of a bitter civil war following our war of independence from the UK
    back in the 1920's and they have never shared power. A third smaller party called the Irish Labour party is slightly to the left of the two main parties. A fourth party called the Progressive Democrats is slightly to the right of the 2 main parties. The baklance about 5% is a mixed bag of Greens, Socialists and Independents. Since the 2 main parties have never been in coalition with one another a coalition govern ment is usually the norm following about a week of bargaining after the result of the general election.

    Posted by Patrick Lambe April 22, 08 07:59 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. RE: "A VERY GOOD ARTICLE FROM FACTCHECK.ORG ABOUT THE RACIST THEOLOGY OF OBAMA''S CHURCH:" posted by James. I just checked that factcheck.org site, which is a good known site. But james, your'e lying! The site actually says exactly the OPPOSITE!, saying: "in fact, a professor of theology at the University of Chicago Divinity School, Martin E. Marty, wrote this in April 2007, rebutting Rush’s claims on Fox News:
    Prof. Marty: To those in range of Chicago TV I'd recommend a watching of Trinity's Sunday services, and challenge you to find anything "cultic" or "sectarian" about them. More important, for Trinity, being "unashamedly black" does not mean being "anti-white." My wife and I on occasion attend, and, like all other non-blacks, are enthusiastically welcomed.
    Regarding this renewed attack on Trinity, Prof. Marty told FactCheck, "That kind of e-mail is vicious and lying, and makes my blood boil. ... Many civic officials, public school teachers, etc. are members at Trinity; [Rev. Jeremiah] Wright has been on TV with his services for years, and no one found them racist – it's smear politics."
    Everyone: check it yourself: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/sliming_obama.html

    Posted by glen noel April 22, 08 08:28 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. I think James needs to revisit factcheck.org. The article he claims was written by them was in fact debunked by them. Go to factcheck.org- here's the link:

    http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/sliming_obama.html

    Snopes.com had similar findings:

    http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/church.asp

    Posted by Richard Smith April 22, 08 08:47 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Obama is in fact a leader. If you have not noticed this, you have not been watching. The problem right now is that it is hard to remember that your objective is to drain the swamp when you are up to your neck in alligators - in this case, birthed, raised and brought to you by your fellow democrat and the complacent tabloid press....

    If there was really anything out there real, it would have been found and tabled by the Clinton's and McCain etc. You can bet they have all their forces on it. Instead, Hillary has been very busy trying to manufacture something out of nothing. And, in terms of her own dirty linen, she shrugs it off on the basis it has been seen before. Sorry, that does not make it clean nor excuse you for it.

    Posted by Paul April 22, 08 09:06 PM
    Reply | Report this post
  1. Oh! No,no,no to Clinton. We have enough of her divisive and angry
    political approach. People like me are fed up with this woman!

    I think the superdelegates the superdelegates should put a stop to this
    dirty political game going on with Billary, rather sooner than later.

    Posted by Mercedes April 24, 08 07:39 AM
    Reply | Report this post
add your comment
Required
Required (will not be published)

This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.

About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

Send your comments to masspolitics@globe.com

archives

browse this blog

by category