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Obama ahead in N.C., statistically tied in Pennsylvania and Indiana

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor April 15, 2008 05:10 PM

New polls for the next three Democratic contests show little evidence so far of any damage to Barack Obama from his comments about bitter small town voters.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg surveys also suggest that Hillary Clinton has work to do in Indiana, which could end up being the tie-breaker if she wins Pennsylvania as expected and Obama wins North Carolina, where he is favored.

In Indiana, which votes May 6, Obama has a 5-percentage-point lead over Clinton, 40 percent to 35 percent, even though the state's demographics appear to favor her, according to the poll.

In Pennsylvania, which holds its primary this coming Tuesday, Clinton has a 5-percentage-point lead over Obama, 46 percent to 41 percent.

And in North Carolina, which also votes May 6, Obama leads by 13 percentage points, 47 percent to 34 percent.

The gaps in Indiana and Pennsylvania are within the polls' margin of error, and there are enough undecided voters in all three states to swing the races.

The surveys also found that Obama's handling of his controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., might have helped him, with most voters saying they thought more highly of Obama.

30 comments so far...
  1. Much to the dismay of the pundits and rabid bloggers, the American people can recognize false issues such as misplaced comments and pastor problems.

    It seems to be a uniquely modern thing to be able to take one person's short comments and be able to instantly analyze his soul! Notwithstanding two books and thousands of hours of recorded speeches and debates, people still think that by hearing one grainy, barely audible secret recording, that somehow that is the truth!

    College educated professionals support Obama because he is smart. He is not perfect, but he is smart. Whenever you want good advice about health or legal or financial advice, you don't go to a high-school dropout in the local bar or bowling alley. You find the smartest, most accomplished person you can in the field and trust that advice.

    Why the romance about the "Reagan Democrats"? Why do they get to decide the leader of our country? Because of their numbers, or their ability to be lulled by 30-second sound bite ads of McCain promising all kinds of goodies, and then retreating back with his lobbyist pals until re-emerging next election cycle.

    Posted by David Kolva, MD April 15, 08 06:14 PM
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  1. You are cherry-picking polls, likely because you favor Obama.

    To be fair (you are not), the latest Survey USA poll shows Clinton ahead by 14 points in Pennsylvania; another just-released poll shows her ahead by 9 points there.

    Posted by Jeff Hunt April 15, 08 06:38 PM
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  1. Do you really expect people to believe this propaganda? Most other polls show much different results. Finally, I don't know why I'm bothering to write this at all. So far, you have censored every one of my posts in defense of Hillary Clinton; I don't know why I should think this post would be any different.

    Posted by Fred Jones April 15, 08 07:25 PM
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  1. Obama himself said words matter.. you can't have it both ways. He meant those horrible things he said about the working class. The sad thing is he is not the only one to look down on people who believe in god and the second ammendment. A large portion of the democratic base is predjudiced against god and guns. They say it every day in defense of Obama. It's discusting.

    "College educated professionals support Obama because he is smart". God what a condescending statement. You imply that the rest of the world isn't smart because they didn't go to college and by extension those people who believe in god and the second ammendment are somehow deficient also.

    You just don't get it doctor. Many college educated people like myself believe in god and the second ammendment. We are also smart enough to see that Obama is a fraud. And like it or not you don't have to have a college education to know that too.

    Posted by Reason April 15, 08 07:31 PM
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  1. So, none of these numbers add up to 100%. Who are those missing 20% or so voters? They call this a poll?

    Posted by linda April 15, 08 07:38 PM
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  1. I'm unemployed, bitter as hell, and voting for Obama. Why speculate about what we will do, when you can hear it right here.

    Posted by Roger Josek April 15, 08 07:45 PM
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  1. I just need to point out that the SurveyUSA poll that Fred Jones mentioned, that is not being widely reported on and which shows a great advantage for Clinton is completely biased. This last one was 56% women , 81% white, 51% over fifty years old, 56% not graduating from college, and 46% were from the same region, the Southeast. They cherry picked the people they surveyed, and SurveyUSA has done this every time in Pennsylvania. The 638 people they asked questions are not representative. There's a good reason why their poll doesn't come close to any others done recently, as well as why most of the media is ignoring it: it's not a representative sample. If you ask a group of Hillary supporters who they are supporting, she's going to appear have a pretty big lead. But that won't win the primary for her. If anyone thinks she's going to win by double digits as things currently stand, think again. She's getting booed by her own supporters when she brings up Obama's use of the word bitter (which you can see in his latest ad).

    Posted by Ralph Emerson April 15, 08 07:53 PM
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  1. WHEN TIMES GET TOUGH I CLING TO RELIGION SO IM PRAYING THAT THESE POLLS ARE TRUE... OBAMA 08!!!
    people are smart enough to see through Hillary and her lies are catching up to her.

    Posted by nat April 15, 08 07:53 PM
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  1. I find it no surprise that Obama calls himself a christian, that he is pro late term abortion, and has a pastor that can repeatedly use the term "God Damn..." from the pulpit and he gets a pass! The press is unbelievable! Has anyone heard of the Ten Commandments? Has anyone question that aside from judging Obama like a contestant on Americal Idol he has absolutely no credentials and reads from a tele-prompter!

    Posted by Jim in Atlanta April 15, 08 07:54 PM
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  1. I too find it interesting that more educated people tend to support Obama.

    To be successful in life, I feel that a person needs to be either capable himself, or at least be able to recognize that he's not and learn from those who are. This is not about letting others think for you; instead it's about being humble and modest, and acknowledge others might have better judgment then learn from it.

    So, if Obama was a phony, fake, unpatriotic etc., how is that he fooled the more educated, informed and successful America?

    Posted by foo April 15, 08 07:59 PM
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  1. I agree with David Kolva (above) entirely. I've read both Barack's books and I feel that the life that he reveals in his books is a window into his soul and into his character. There can be no doubt about his commitment to the poor and those who have been victimized by injustice and oppression if one reads the millions of words in his biographies.
    This is a man of uncommon intelligence, perspective and an extraordinary world-view resulting from being of mixed heritage and having lived abroad in a 'developing' country. He understands the need to energize and motivate citizens to get involved in order to re-prioritize the agenda in Washington D..C. He is definitely all about community building, block by block. I hope Americans seize the moment.

    Posted by rosie April 15, 08 08:01 PM
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  1. Can anyone really believe that the Rev. Wright controversy actually helped Sen. Obama? Maybe he should have the Reverend preach some more inflamatory sermons to close the gap with Hillary even more.
    Thankfully, the Globe will be out of business in a couple of years.

    Posted by efw April 15, 08 08:04 PM
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  1. Number #5: You asked about the missing numbers...they are undecided voters. The closer in time the poll is to the election, the fewer of these kinds of voters there are--people who usually vote but at the time of the survey have not made a firm decision about who they plan to vote for.

    Posted by Irene April 15, 08 08:05 PM
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  1. Obama being Foxworthy in San Francisco

    You might be a redneck if you are from a small town.

    You might be a redneck if you are white and don’t wanna work.

    You might be a redneck if you buy my talking points hook line and sinker.

    You might be a redneck if you are bitter and anti American government.

    You might be a redneck if you cling to your gun only because you are full of frustration.

    You might be a redneck if you cling to your religion only because you are full of frustration

    You might be a redneck if you have antipathy to everyone but other rednecks.

    You might be a redneck if you hate all immigrants coming to your country.

    You might be a redneck if you don’t know anything about international trade.

    You might be a redneck if you won’t vote for me or join my movement, sort of a race thing.

    Obama got caught gossiping in private, plain and simple!

    Please no more spin! Can’t Obama just say sorry with out it being small town peoples fault?

    Posted by Roger April 15, 08 08:16 PM
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  1. Sorry people but Obama is wrong and I do not like all these talking heads and media hounds spinning Obama's words as not being offensive but instead we are to take as right and true. I also am really tired of them telling me how I feel! Who I am is one of the "THEY" Obama was sharing to his "WE" buddies about. What they all have wrong is that I am not bitter towards my country or my government for that matter any other race of people or any other country or any other neighbors! Not city folk, Not Hispanic folk, Not black folk! They are all welcome to my small town and my church where you will get and invite for dinner! We do have people in hard times around here and other who are not and we help each other through such times. We do want more jobs but not anymore or less then any other part of this country. We count ourselves so very lucky to be able to live in a small town with a solid sense of community and core values of hard work, where sharing, caring and God loving abound! Where we have the freedom to work and play. Where we can hunt and fish and live as we please. We are not bitter we are BLESSED!


    Posted by Roger April 15, 08 08:17 PM
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  1. MY FELLOW BITTER, STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE.

    YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT, TOO :-(

    If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just a bunch of BITTER!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON FODDER. :-(

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)

    Best regards

    jacksmith...

    p.s.

    If you don't know that the huge amounts of money funding the Obama campaign to try and defeat Hillary Clinton is coming in from the insurance, and medical industry, that has been ripping you off, and killing you and your children. And denying you, and your loved ones the life saving medical care you needed. All just so they can make more huge immoral profits for them-selves off of your suffering...

    You Might Be An Idiot, Too!

    You see, back in 1993 Hillary Clinton had the audacity, and nerve to try and get quality, affordable universal health care for everyone to prevent the suffering and needless deaths of hundreds of thousands of you each year. :-)

    Approx. 100,000 of you die each year from medical accidents from a rush to profit by the insurance, and medical industry. Another 120,000 of you die each year from treatable illness that people in other developed countries don’t die from. And I could go on, and on...

    Posted by jacksmith April 15, 08 08:35 PM
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  1. Also, the reason this is not widenly reported about Hillary's gain is because the media is mostly pro-Obama

    Posted by Kevin April 15, 08 08:46 PM
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  1. In a current political ad, 3 year-old Hillary Rodham, arms extended, toddles toward the home-movie camera. Hillary's present-day voice-over explains, the Rodham family cottage, down by the lake, lacked indoor plumbing. Yet, more telling details seem to fall by the wayside. Take twenty-seven year old Hillary's first real job. The upshot: Jerry Zeifman fired Hillary for unethical practices during the Watergate Investigation. Why was Hillary fired? “Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in a recent interview. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”

    “I have gone [duck] hunting. I am not a hunter. But I have gone hunting," says Hillary. Perhaps as amusing, is how an elitist politician worth over $100 million-dollars, espouses small town family values. Not only does Mr. Zeifman’s account go to character, it goes to a lifelong pattern of lying and obfuscation. It took Zeifman twelve years to get his story aired. After Watergate, Zeifman could not recommend Hillary for any subsequent position of public or private trust, nor furnish her with a letter of recommendation. After that, Hillary's employment record is one of strict nepotism, cronyism, and amnesia.

    Although few suspected the lengths to which Hillary would go, a leopard never changes her spots. According to Mr. Zeifman, it’s not just Hillary’s dishonesty; that’s not in dispute. More to the point, Hillary’s history of lies and unethical behavior goes back farther, and goes much deeper than anyone realizes. "The Clintons corrupted the soul of the Democratic Party." -Henry Ruth, lead Watergate courtroom prosecutor. Hillary Clinton is a bold-faced liar, who will stop at nothing. Should anyone doubt either Mr. Zeifman, or Mr. Ruth’s veracity regarding the Clintons, dispute this: http://theseedsof9-11.com

    Ps. Parental reminder: due to possible long-term side effects, please use caution when teaching a child to quack like a duck.

    Posted by Mata Hari April 15, 08 09:17 PM
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  1. I am a 61 year old woman and I am bitter as hell. No health insurance, still working everyday and things keep going up all the time. Am I bitter you bet. Someone should get smart and make some bumper stickers that say Yes, I am bitter and make a ton of money off it. Obama in O8 for me.

    Posted by Eva April 15, 08 09:34 PM
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  1. Jeff,

    You are cherry-picking polls, likely because you favor Clinton.

    The most recent batch of polls (see http://tinyurl.com/2hykg3) put Clinton in the +5 to +9 range, with one, the SurveyUSA, at +14. Not exactly a statistical tie, but mentioning only the +9 and +14 one is hardly unbiased.

    Posted by BCC April 15, 08 10:05 PM
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  1. An apology is not necessary for disregarding a possible group of Americans, just a clarification of what was meant..... but go further and place the evil thoughts on the one that took it as a negative to these same groups.
    She is the evil one ...... she has just inherited
    those very words.. they now belong to her.
    If what people say and what people hear do not match there lies a potential for problems.
    If what Obama said, lacks sensitivity, even if what he said could be soften to seem
    innocent...... it can be possible that the ones he is referring to could feel abused as a form of belittling them.
    Country bumpkins......hicks...etc.

    Posted by Madeline Stewart April 15, 08 10:19 PM
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  1. Obama's strength is among blacks and people with higher education.
    As a non-college educated white male, I think I'll go with the educated people this time. We tried the dumbo for the last eight years and look where it got us. Go Obama!

    Posted by Bryan April 15, 08 10:26 PM
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  1. Also note the trend in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls of Democrats nationally, two respected polling organizations which interview 1000 people daily. Obama has trended stronger in both polls in the last week and reached 11% over Clinton yesterday (51-40) the highest ever. Sorry Clinton supporters. You need to let reality in. Bittergate was never a real story and I think Hillary will suffer gravely for going negative on it..

    Posted by jerry T Lawler April 15, 08 10:27 PM
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  1. "...Indiana, which could end up being the tie-breaker..."

    Huh? What does this mean? If Clinton wins PA and Obama wins NC, then IN will decide who gets the nomination? The process doesn't work that way --- it's the delegate count that matters. Obama's way ahead in the delegate count and Clinton needs to start racking up big delegate wins in every state to stand a chance. Winning some mythical best two out of three contest is meaningless unless it means big pluralities in delegates --- but it looks like Obama will do well enough in PA, NC, and IN that Clinton will walk away from the three states with only a handful more delegates and nowhere near enough to change the dynamic of the race.

    Posted by Paul April 15, 08 11:08 PM
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  1. just to set the facts straight.... obama's now famous comment was part of a long response while answering a question. he was basically asked what some of those in the room who were going to campaign for him in pennsylvania might expect. his answer was basically that rural voters no longer believe in government to help there economic situation, explain what my campaign can do for them and recognize that they have been driven by wedge issues: religion (antiabortion, gay marraige), guns (2nd amendment issues), and immigration.

    read for yourself and see if the media (and clinton and mccain) have turned this into something it wasnt.

    OBAMA: So, it depends on where you are, but I think it's fair to say that the places where we are going to have to do the most work are the places where people feel most cynical about government. The people are mis-appre...I think they're misunderstanding why the demographics in our, in this contest have broken out as they are. Because everybody just ascribes it to 'white working-class don't wanna work -- don't wanna vote for the black guy.' That's...there were intimations of that in an article in the Sunday New York Times today - kind of implies that it's sort of a race thing.

    Here's how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn't buy it. And when it's delivered by -- it's true that when it's delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter).

    But -- so the questions you're most likely to get about me, 'Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What's the concrete thing?' What they wanna hear is -- so, we'll give you talking points about what we're proposing -- close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama's gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we're gonna provide health care for every American. So we'll go down a series of talking points.

    But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

    Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you'll find is, is that people of every background -- there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you'll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I'd be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you're doing what you're doing.

    Posted by 2dumb2think April 16, 08 12:20 AM
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  1. Hillary Clinton has shot herself in the foot wielding her "six-pack whiskey shooter"!

    Her credibility and TRUTHFULNESS in this Primary campaign has made her totally UNELECTABLE!

    End this MADNESS!

    Posted by Typical White Woman Baby Boomer April 16, 08 07:51 AM
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  1. My big gift in life is a built in BS detector. I may not always follow it, but I can tell a fake and a bull thrower at 500 paces. Obama and michelle must laugh themselves to sleep at night. I mean they knew they would get certain people to buy their crap, but Im sure they are cackeling like hens over some that they are fooling. Too bad if we all have to suffer because a couple of racist, wannabe's with a great sense of "you owe me" get in office. It has to be true.."people drink the sand because they don't know any better". God help us all if he gets in...he can't read pretty speeches (written by someone else) when he faces the world leaders..um um um...and saying I agree with HER will not be possible then. Nor will excuses and lies. Send this guy packin people...heck, even George is better than he would be. Now thats saying alot.

    Posted by TessandJack April 17, 08 05:06 AM
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  1. Dear TessandJack

    If you 'big gift' in life is a BS detector, Im even sorrier for you than that. I think your 'big gift' is not working.

    So guess that makes you simply petty, possibly racist and probably uneducated. Clinton supporter? Republican? Dont let the future, progress and a better world hit you on your way out.

    Posted by SamanthaJ April 17, 08 11:40 AM
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  1. HILLARY'S POOR JUDGMENT leaves AMERICANS FOOTING THE BILL...

    THE WAR IN IRAQ IS HAVING SERIOUS NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON OUR ECONOMY and those who voted for the war (i.e. hillary) should be to blame, in part, for the state of the US economy.


    Look how the WAR IN IRAQ is affecting the US economy...


    $3,000,000,000… 3 Billion dollars PER WEEK!


    That is the amount America is paying for the Iraq War PER WEEK, money that should have been used here, at home.


    Add to this:

    Interest. We are financing the war with borrowed money (e.g. treasuries) that carries interest; so in actuality, the war is costing the United States MORE THAN 3 billion dollars PER WEEK.

    Higher oil and energy prices. Instability from the war in Iraq is adding roughly 30 dollars per barrel as a premium.

    High oil prices mean high utility bills. Higher oil prices shifts demand to other sources of energy - gas, coal, etc. - and greater demand will raise the equilibrium price of all sources of energy -- Can you say high energy bills?

    High oil prices (a raw material used in the production of many goods, fertilizers, gasoline, diesel, plastics, etc.) mean high prices of goods and services -- Can you say INFLATION?

    Higher trade deficit. High oil prices mean a higher trade deficit because most of our oil comes from foreign sources. A higher trade deficit means more money is leaving the country than is coming into the country -- Can you say Goodbye to your hard-earned money!

    The US dollar is weak and getting weaker. Since we have a trade deficit and is growing in large part to the rising cost of imported oil, the value of goods and services we import exceeds the value of goods we export. You know that foreign car you're thinking of buying or the computer you're using, or that trip abroad you've been thinking of taking....well, guess what? It is going to cost more, Ceteris Peribus, because the dollar is weak and getting weaker.

    Lastly, how do you think the world views our country since the argument was made for war? The evidence was weak and circumstantial, yet we rushed into war with Iraq thanks to hillary’s authorization.

    Remember, Hillary Voted FOR THE IRAQ WAR

    Posted by Mary Preshot April 17, 08 07:58 PM
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  1. I"M FROM PENNSYLVANIA, EDUCATED AND NOT A BLUE COLLAR WORKER. I THINK HILLARY CLINTON HAS MORE TO OFFER THAN OBAMA. SPEECHES ARE ONE THING AND EXPERIENCE IS ANOTHER. I DO NOT BELEIVE ALL OF OBAMA'S FUNDS COME FROM SMALL DONATIONS FROM THE WORKING CLASS HE SEEMS TO DISDAIN.
    MOREOVER HE SEEMS TO BE GETTING QUITE A PASS FROM THE MEDIA WHICH HAS DOGGED THE CLINTONS FOR YEARS. BUT, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM A MEDIA WHICH FAILED TO INVESTIGATE THE PRESENCE OR LACK THEREOF OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ, TOUTED THE WAR AND LED THE ANTI-AMERICAN CRY AGAINST ANYONE WHO HAD SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT SAID WAR. ESSENTIALLY THE MEDIA HELPED BUSH AND HIS CRONIES SELL THE WAR AND NOW CRITICIZE ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR THE WAR AFTER BEING LITERALLY AGAINST THE MEDIA WALL.
    I THINK THE MEDIA IS CREATING MR. OBAMA AS SOMETHING MORE THAN HE REALLY IS. IF HE DOES GET ELECTED, I DON'T BELIEVE HIS TENURE WILL BE THAT SUCCESSFUL AND THEN THE MEDIA WILL CRITICIZE ANYONE WHO LIKES OBAMA.
    I BELIEVE GOOD OLD HILLARY CLINTON, WITH BAGGAGE, BAGS AND WRINKLES HAS THE TENANCITY, INTELLIGENCE AND JUST PLAIN OLD FIGHT IN HER TO LEAD OUR COUNTRY BACK ON THE RIGHT PATH. OBAMA'S RECORD CAN'T STAND UP TO MR. MCCAIN'S IN THE FALL. THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WILL BECOME 50 RED STATES

    Posted by LISA LOLL April 21, 08 02:37 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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