Hillary Clinton leads narrowly in Indiana, a must-win primary on Tuesday for her to stay in the Democratic fray, according to a new poll released this morning.
Clinton has 49 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent among likely voters, with 6 percent still undecided, said the poll from Suffolk University in Boston.
"It's no slam-dunk, but Hillary Clinton is poised to win the Hoosier state, provided there aren't some critical turnovers late," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement, using basketball terminology for the hoops-crazy state. "Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."
Despite Clinton's edge, Obama is viewed more favorably and more respondents believe he will be the eventual nominee.
The primary is open to Republicans and independents, which could help explain why only 44 percent of likely voters said they would vote Democratic if their favored candidate doesn't secure the nomination; 38 percent said they would support the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, in November.
"This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.
The survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
With Obama leading in the polls in North Carolina, which also votes Tuesday, Clinton plans to be in Indianapolis on primary night -- another sign of where she believes she will do best.
About Political Intelligence
Glen Johnson is Politics Editor at boston.com and lead blogger for "Political Intelligence." He moved to Massachusetts in the fourth grade, and has covered local, state, and national politics for over 25 years. E-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow him on Twitter @globeglen.