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Obama comfortably ahead in Oregon

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor May 13, 2008 11:50 AM

Barack Obama is already counting on a win in the Oregon primary next week to put him over the top in pledged delegates -- and allow him to declare victory on that key measure.

A new poll suggests that triumph is a pretty safe bet. Done for the Portland Tribune and KPTV, it shows Obama with a 55 percent to 35 percent lead over Hillary Clinton. She is likely to face inexorable pressure to withdraw if she doesn't win in both Kentucky, where she is ahead in the poll, and in Oregon next Tuesday.

"Barring a disaster, Barack Obama's going to win Oregon, and he may win it very big," pollster Tim Hibbits told the Tribune.

The survey was conducted Thursday through Saturday, while both candidates were campaigning in the state, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

27 comments so far...
  1. It's really disturbing that the news media keeps saying "unless there's a disaster" Obama will win.

    I'm trying to keep myself sane by not thinking about such horrific thoughts. It's not enough that Bush and Cheney kept telling the country that we would be attacked if we didn't elect them.

    Posted by Ginger M. May 13, 08 03:40 PM
  1. He got my vote.

    :)

    Posted by Kyle Reardon May 13, 08 04:08 PM
  1. i think by disaster they mean a devastating scandal.

    Posted by seam May 13, 08 04:13 PM
  1. I agree with Ginger, I believe "unless there's a disaster" is a very poor choise of words. Knowing the Clinton's history, this is scary. Hilliary is not going to win, she is too far behind in delegates, she is 17.5 superdelegates behind, less than half the states won, and less popular votes. It is quite comical, and yet interesting, that Hiliary and her campaign early in the race said "ONLY BIG States counted because of their large delegate count; they described the small states as unimportant and that they did not matter, the caucus states as unimportant, they did not count, and they were undemocratic" It was all about delegates, delegates, delegates!! Remember her not even campaigning in a lot of the small states?? NOW, the last remaining smaller states MEAN EVERYTHING to Hilliary and her campaign! "Who'd of thunk it?" And there in lies the comedy. :)

    Posted by NinaK May 13, 08 04:22 PM
  1. Go Obama U the man.

    Posted by Citizen May 13, 08 04:28 PM
  1. It's really disturbing that some people don't understand what they're reading. Tim Hibbits is not a member of the media, Ginger. He's the guys that ran the poll!

    Posted by HCR3 May 13, 08 04:37 PM
  1. The press and the TV media are disgustingly pro Hillary with both photos and commentary. It's time they start a"fair" presentation including George Steppinopulis, Charles Gibson, CNN and Fox plus.others : Look at the baggage of Hillary including Bill!!!!

    Posted by chet mccabe May 13, 08 04:52 PM
  1. I just read a CNN article which states: (QUOTE) "Clinton is also using electoral history to maker her case. "I think it's fair to say that West Virginia is a test. It's a test for me and it's a test for Sen. Obama, because for too long we have let places like West Virginia slip out of the Democratic column. And you know it is a fact that no Democratic president has ever won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia. That's how important the voters of West Virginia are," Clinton said.

    Bill Clinton won West Virginia in 1992 and 1996. George W. Bush took the state in 2000 and 2004. (UNQUOTE)
    --------------------------------------
    Guess Hilliary does not know political history! She doesn't even remember HER husband winning TWICE in West Virginia!!! What a slap in the face to WV and these voters!!! Geeze, George Bush won in that state just eight (8) years ago, and again four (4) years ago!!! Is Hiilliary being "conveniently forgetful" and is she pandering misinformation (lies, again) to make these voters feel really important? They can then say, "Gee, we voted for the first Democratic President since 1916!! We made history!!!" Okay, news media, let's hear it from you!! Are you going to take her to task on this issue??? She is blatantly using fraudulant claims AGAIN!!

    Posted by NinaK May 13, 08 04:54 PM
  1. Obama is looking ahead to November in May? By October, he'll be looking ahead to January, and hopefully, by January, he'll be looking ahead to unemployment. He's a fraud. He claims to be change, but his voting record doesn't support that statement. And the media thinks he is the darling. If he wins, he's four and out...which is a shame..it will give the Republicans another 8 years starting in 2013.

    Here's a hint Mr. Barack Obama, don't turn your back on states like West Virginia. It will come back to haunt you.

    Posted by Robert Johnson May 13, 08 06:01 PM
  1. Her comments about history aren't wrong.

    "And you know it is a fact that no Democratic president has ever won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia"

    As far as I know that's true...and just because Bill won WV doesn't invalidate her comment. It supports it. Bill Clinton was a democrat who won the White House, and apparently WV as well. To shoot her statement down, you need to produce a Democratic President that DID NOT win WV since 1916

    Posted by Austin May 13, 08 07:58 PM
  1. To Robert Johnson - Okay, so you don't want to vote for Obama. Fine, don't. But don't come here and post slander. He is not a fraud any more than you. And if you want to find fraud, just take a look at leadership in the White House...... Or, perhaps at the person so vainly campaigning in WV on racial, gender and whatever else she can think of division...


    As for any "disasters", if there was a real one out there, the Clintons and the Republicans would have had it out there by now. All they could come up with is guilt by association and trying to make hay out of a few slips of the tongue. It is well past the 11th hour indeed I think high noon has also passed.


    I am confident that the American public in its majority from all walks of life and geography will see what you at the moment at least, do not - that Obama is the right choice for America at this time. He will be America's next President. And he has no time to be watching his back over WV. The American people have his back..... In the meantime, he is now going to be able to focus energy in this campaign and in his Presidency to move toward solutions to the issues to be "ready on day one". To name a few in no particular order:

    - the horrendous daily loss of lives and new casualties and the waste of billions in a misguided war,
    - the failed efforts to route out Bin Laden and his terrorists,
    - declining long term security as American leadership continues to misunderstand and mishandle foreign policy, religion generally, and religious terrorists and extremists specifically,
    - lack of economic progress in the last 8 years and rapidly growing economic misery for the typical American,
    - financial crises - made in America by the way, which are infecting the global finanacial system and bouncing back in other shapes and forms and knocking on America's door with secondary impacts,
    - the decline of the dollar in America and as a global reserve currency,
    - the vacuum in health care for millions in a faulty system that desperately needs overhaul to expand and guarantee full coverage while at the same time reducing costs,
    - the loss of homes by millions,
    - massive social security challenge that is underfunded as boomers rapidly approach retirement,
    - the twin skyrocketing budget and current account deficits because of an intransigent current President and other leaders who (1) started a false war and must now rebuild the massive devestation and destruction caused, (2) blindly funnel money without sufficient check or balance to American conglomerates such as Haliburton in the rebuilding efforts, (3) don't know when to "stop throwing good money after bad",
    - spiraling oil and gas and other commodity prices that are out of control,
    - changing America's energy policy to one that would replace oil and gas dependence with truly long term sustainable energy from sun and wind (if Bush had taken his political capital and his principle that popularity does not matter to this issue by dramatically raising the mileage requirements for vehicles (not increasing it by so many percentage points but in fact requiring it to by multiples better - 100 to 300 %) at the start of his Presidency among other things it would have been much better spent than on the Iraq war),
    - change America's environmental and science policies, which have historically fueled its growth in productivity, return them to unmatched in the worked from - stick your head in the sand and pray,
    - leading a global attack on the lethally real and exponentially growing environmental issues including pollution, global warming and polluted water, and
    - need I go on - you can do this better than I....

    Posted by Paul Stewart May 13, 08 08:02 PM
  1. Why not a 40% lead? Obama dug his way out of modest beginnings, made some mistakes but took the high road at every critical turn.

    He judges men's intentions, the time and the place, not just their words....(Wright, Ayers and Saddam). In 2002, Saddam Hussein provoked this nation in to war with just words - “this will be the mother of all wars" Today's nuts like Iran's Ahmadinajad, N. Korea's Kim Jong Il and even Russia's Putin all trying to provoke America. A real leader needs to judge intent before committing this country to war
    http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Barack_Obama's_Iraq_Speech

    Obama gave up high paying jobs after Harvard to fight for civil rights for blue-collar workers – both black AND white.
    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/07/29/us/politics/20070730_OBAMA_GRAPHIC.html
    In 4 yrs US Senate he got real change started with by crossing the isle with Coburn, Lugar, Hagel, McCain
    **the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law),
    **The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, (became law),
    **The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, passed the Senate,
    **The 2007 Government Ethics Bill, (became law),
    **The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, (In committee), and many more.
    ** Honest Leadership and Open Govt. Act (became law)
    ** Sponsorship with John McCain (R-AZ) of a climate change bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by two-thirds by 2050
    ** joined Chuck Hagel (R-NE) in introducing legislation to reduce risks of nuclear terrorism (partial passage)
    http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/04/obamas-outreach.html

    "Of all the leading candidates, he [Obama] is the only one on these issues who has consistently acted like a true American" says Naomi Wolf, the author of The End of America and the co-founder of the American Freedom Campaign.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/naomi-wolf/why-barack-obama-got-my-v_b_89017.html

    Posted by Young Atheart May 13, 08 08:05 PM
  1. Obama has already turned his back on Michigan and Florida and so it's nothing new that he turns his back on the states he doesn't feel he needs. At least he hasn't thrown West Virginians under the bus like he has done to his grandmother and his pastor. Anyway, if West Virginians don't like him, he might try blaming his staff like he usually does.

    Anyone but Obama in '08!!!

    Posted by mdo10025 May 13, 08 08:35 PM
  1. Obama already has 20 superd's in pocket, waiting in the lurch to announce whenever there's a bad press day. If he doesn't have to use them for that, he'll have them announce when he cleans up in Oregon and clinches the delegate victory -- just to make his victory very clear.

    Posted by DAvid May 13, 08 09:18 PM
  1. As a presidential candidate it becomes increasingly clear that Hilary CVlinton is saying "Its all about me -not the issues - its about me!"

    Posted by Henry Moyer May 13, 08 10:03 PM
  1. Democrats are trying hard to take this opportunity to right America. All Hillary sees is a lottery ticket bought by her campaign supporters and perhaps as some suggest, George Bush. I think it is clear Hillary Clinton does not have the right stuff. I would support Edwards as VP although I disagree her continuing makes Hillary stronger. I do think a woman in the VP slot would do wonders for the ticket and unwinding the divisions Hillary has created in her quest for nominee. And I mean a woman that is not masquerading as a man.

    I think she is stubbornly chasing her personal goal as first woman President. Sometimes candidates believe in themselves succeeding so much, they lose touch with reality. A bit like an actress gets deeply into her role they feel that are President. Egos sometimes can't let that go once it has been tasted. In time, and very soon, I hope she will be able to let it go.

    Hillary is taking precious time and I think an imprudent risk with her party's election chances and importantly, dealing with America's future. All the energy spent now on Hillary's lost cause is better spent helping the party prepare for the general. That way, maybe America can be "ready on day one" to focus on the pressing and distressing needs of America. There is no time to lose.

    Posted by Paul Stewart May 13, 08 10:54 PM
  1. Democrats are trying hard to take this opportunity to right America. All Hillary sees is a lottery ticket bought by her campaign supporters and perhaps as some suggest, George Bush. I think it is clear Hillary Clinton does not have the right stuff. I would support Edwards as VP although I disagree her continuing makes Hillary stronger. I do think a woman in the VP slot would do wonders for the ticket and unwinding the divisions Hillary has created in her quest for nominee. And I mean a woman that is not masquerading as a man.

    I think she is stubbornly chasing her personal goal as first woman President. Sometimes candidates believe in themselves succeeding so much, they lose touch with reality. A bit like an actress gets deeply into her role they feel that are President. Egos sometimes can't let that go once it has been tasted. In time, and very soon, I hope she will be able to let it go.

    Hillary is taking precious time and I think an imprudent risk with her party's election chances and importantly, dealing with America's future. All the energy spent now on Hillary's lost cause is better spent helping the party prepare for the general. That way, maybe America can be "ready on day one" to focus on the pressing and distressing needs of America. There is no time to lose.

    Posted by Paul Stewart May 13, 08 11:24 PM
  1. Hillary needs to get a life...the people in West Va have a mentality just like the people in Ohio, Pa, and In. Most of them will never ever vote for a black person. West Va. ranks among the poorest state in the union and they still voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 - they just don't get it. They rather vote for a party instead of their interest. It is no way the Republican Party could fool me twice. Did they think in 2000 and 2004 by voting for Bush - they was going to be rewarded? Fools, Fools when will you wake up and see the light - maybe in 2008 they will vote for the Democratic Party.

    Hillary acts like she never ever lived in the White House - I cannot see me keep loaning my campaign money - just to see it being wasted on showering yourself after every win. I never seem Michelle and Barack do it, even after 11 wins. I would not send her a dime. Keep on loaning yourself money and I bet you after this Bill will not get anymore speaking engagement.

    Posted by Deborah May 14, 08 12:03 AM
  1. Obama did not turn his back on Florida and Michigan. People need to remember that in truth - John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Barack Obama were all victims of the Florida and Michigan deals. Hillary was winning based on name recognition and in Michigan, her top competition - Edwards, Biden, Richardson, and Obama - were elmiinated in one sweep. Kucinich asked for his name to be taken off too, but it was too late. So, why did Hillary keep hers on? It's like they wanted to keep two aces up her sleeve.

    It's like the DNC and the Michigan and Florida democratic party somehow got talked into knee-capping all of her competitors by doing what they did. I wish there were a couple investigative reporters who would really dig into exactly what happened blow by blow - and figure out where those deals originated and who helped carry them out. I've read in some blogs that Hillary and the Michigan female governor are friends.

    Both of those deals really smell bad to me. I'm 47 - but I can't remember a single time when any state moved their primary ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire? And suddenly when HILLARY is running - two huge states decide that they want to go first? Like Michigan and Florida were EVER ignored? That's crazy.

    As for West Virginia, Barack Obama has had 15 states where he has won by 60-79%. Hillary had only one - Arkansas. There were plenty of white working class voters in those margins. Tonight's loss was due to lack of personally appearing - people love him once they get to know him. Barack didn't campaign except one day there - that should have been different - but he picked up 27 super-delegates in the last week with zero for her. So, that more than offsets the net 10 she made on this one.

    Ever notice how in every state, she says, "Since ____ , "no one" or "no democrat" has won without winning _________ whenever she wins a state. Pretty slick - but you can make that claim anywhere - just get your stats out.

    Oh, well. just watch Barack's performance out in Montana, South Dakota - there's a lot of white working class voters here - and I'll tell you. I canvassed for 2 hours last night before I found 2 Hillary supporters in Billings, MT. He's doing great among the blue-collar white voters out here. 80% of Montanans make less than $50,000 - and we have less than 1000 AA's of 900,000 people in the last census. So, he's going to do just fine with white working class voters - he just needs to show up.


    Posted by Lisa May 14, 08 01:18 AM
  1. If the superdelegates do not overturn this presumptive nomination, the Democrats deserve to lose in the November. Fielding the most far left voting senator, against a moderate POW who actually believes in global warming...gee, I wonder who is most likely to get the votes of Reagan Dems. and Independents? A war hero who was tortured for 5 years in North Vietnamese prison camp versus a guy with no experience who believes in the social gospel of black liberation theology? The latter even sat his young children in the pews of a bigot and an anti-Semite week after week and ran on a campaign of unity. Hmmm.......
    Barack Obama is a fraud and the American people, fortunately, are not obtuse as Obamaphiles. Can anyone here imagine Colin Powell sitting in that church for more than
    one sermon? Of course not, because no matter what you think of his political affiliation, that guy's a man of character and judgment.
    Obama surrogates secretly meeting with Canadian representatives to disavow his NAFTA rhetoric...Obama surrogates meeting with Hamas. Wow, no deception there. Even his so-called brilliant speech on race would have been a lot more compelling had it not been made solely in reaction to getting smoked out on the Reverend Wright issue!
    I have to agree with the dear Reverend: Barack Obama is a politician. There's no "there" there folks, and he will lose in the general--just like Kerry, just like Gore. And the Dems have no one but themselves to blame..


    Posted by kw May 14, 08 01:07 PM
  1. Obama will lose he key swing states to McCain, who is NOT George Bush; ;he's a social moderate. No way that Obama wins OH, or FL, IN, and possibly will lose in PA. A vote for Obama is a vote for President McCain

    Posted by Phil May 15, 08 02:11 AM
  1. The reason why every Democratic nominee since 1916 won West Virginia, is that THE RACE WAS OVER by the time West Virginia voted, the other candidates ended their campaign so the voters voted for the guy who was the nominee.

    Another thing. Every Democratic President we have had in the last 44 years was FROM THE SOUTH. Lyndon B. Johnson, Carter, Clinton...and even when JFK ran, LBJ was his VP and helped carry the south. So these people were SOUTHERNERS who naturally appealed to the south. Hillary is NOT a southerner.

    Hillary has ZERO chance of winning WV in the GE, neither does Barack Obama, so it is irrelevant, completely irrelevent. WV and MI are the most racist states, half the people that voted for her there said it was because of race. I don't think all 50 states are this way.

    H

    Posted by Dave May 15, 08 04:08 PM
  1. OK Dave,
    Hillary won WV by how much? Now if half voted for her because she was white and they were white then what is SC and 90+ percent voting for Obama?
    I voted for Hillary because she never gives up on issues. Example Health Care!
    By the way how would the delegate count if it were the old rules and winner take all? Go ahead add that up. Supper delegate to decide this what a bunch of crap.
    The LEFT wing of the democratic party stole the election from Hillary and if she
    doesn't get the nomination she deserves I'll vote Republican for the first time.
    Sen. Clinton and Sen, McCain are somewhat in the middle. Sen. Obama
    is soooo far left way to left me and a lot of my Massachusetts friends.

    Posted by Tom May 16, 08 01:40 AM
  1. A Harvard education and boyish charm make for nifty commercials, but in my humble opinion Barack Obama is the flavor of the week. Until a few months ago I’d never heard of him, whereas for thirty years now I’ve been watching the entire Clinton family vigorously serve this country despite downright meanness from the right wing (and now, from the LEFT!) with intelligence, dignity, and fortitude.

    I believe that fact illuminates the primary, distinct difference between Hillary and Obama...Hillary has a fiercely loyal base of public support. No wonder we call Hillary by her first name and him by his last.

    I voted for Hillary the day I got my ballot.

    Posted by revbilly May 16, 08 01:42 AM
  1. Yes, .....and I voted for Barack the day I got my ballot- in Oregon. I've been watching the entire Clinton family for thirty years now too, and I've had enough of THEIR downright meanness in this campaign. Barack Obama has the largest, most loyal base of grass roots support ever developed in a presidential campaign. He has received donations from 1.5 MILLION separate individuals, giving small amounts and giving again and again. He has swelled the ranks of democrats- I have re-registered as a Democrat from independent in order to vote for him in Oregon, and I will stay a democrat as long as the party shows that it really is in tune with the people. But the democrats need to realize that to move beyond the Bush years they need to move beyond politics as usual, and welcome the breath of fresh air.

    Posted by katharine May 17, 08 03:12 PM
  1. I am praying for a miracle for Hillary in Oregon. She is the most outstanding candidate we have ever had in this country. It's sad some of Sen. Obama's supporters have been using Republican talking points to trash her, but no matter what happens in the Oregon election, she will face it with the same dignity and she will always own the hearts of her supporters. A first term senator who has spent one of the two years running for president and eight years in the Illinois state senate, which meets fifty five days a year, is no match for this wonderful, strong woman who knows what needs to be done for the economy, to end the war and provide every person in this country with health care. The Democrats have a history of shooting themselves in the foot and we are doing it yet again. I hope Hillary will take this all the way to the convention. Every estimate given by the media of earned delegates is different and the state conventions haven't reported
    yet. She has garnered more than 17mil votes and many of her supporters will not support Obama due to the rude, dismissive attitude of the DNC and the media. Bill Clinton left the White House with a 65% approval rating, a balanced budget
    and a forecast surplus of $3trillion. Obama and his supporters have tried to blame Pres. Clinton for the economy ignoring the tax cuts, costs of war and pork barrel
    spending by the Bush administration and ignoring the fact Clinton vetoed all the pork. They have played the race card to lure African Americans away from the best friends they have ever had in government. Toni Morrison said ten years ago, Bill Clinton was the first African American president and now she says that wasn't what she meant at all even though we all understood what she meant for ten years. Obama is unknown, but his campaign would make Karl Rove envious. Obama told his supporters in order to win in November the party has to be united so they had to be "nice" to Clinton supporters. Well HEY MR. OBAMA, it's too late.

    Posted by Bonnie May 18, 08 05:04 PM
  1. I probably won't get through to REVBILLY on this one, because he posted a couple of days ago, and it seems this thread is dead, but I CAN'T let his or a couple of other comments go without remark. First, the fact you had never heard of Barack Obama until a few months ago speaks more to your disconnect from politics than it does his being the "flavor of the week"...he's been on the national stage since he spoke at the 2004 Dem. convention. He did it in prime time and he blew everyone else who spoke (including, unfortunately, the candidate himself) off the stage, with the possible exception of the former president and the v.p. candidate. His speech was by far the most stirring and it was FULL of good policy points. If you take the time to read up on Obama, he's got a ton of specific ideas for the country--you can't rely on sound bites to tell you about a candidate.

    On the other side, did the person who was reading off HIllary's comments on West Virginia even know how to read? I know they are a Clinton hater, but seriously--the quote was that no dem had won the white house without winning WV since 1916. This is true. The person went on to say the exact same thing then call her a liar....while she has lied in the past, this time she was correct.

    Folks, listen. The main thing is still the main thing. We HAVE to defeat the repubilcans before they completely destroy the country. It may already be too late to save some of what we have grown used to in way of life, etc. We have $4 a gallon gas, more people have fallen below the poverty level than at any time since the Great Depression, millions have fallen off the unemployment rolls because they've just stopped looking for work--it's REALLY BAD out here, and the only ones who've been in power for six of the last eight years are GOP'ers!!!! Spin that, Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly. The only thing we should be focused on is defeating them--stop sniping at each other and get to work!

    Posted by Brad Barbee May 20, 08 10:12 AM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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