A majority thinks Obama will win

After the first full week of general election mode, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are statistically even in the latest Gallup poll, 44 percent to 42 percent in tracking surveys conducted June 12-14.

But the Gallup survey, released this morning, shows that a clear majority of Americans believe Obama will win in November. He leads in the perception measure 52 percent to 41 percent, with 76 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of independents predicting an Obama victory. Two-thirds of Republicans believe McCain will win.

Gallup notes that interestingly, while Obama's support during the primaries was skewed toward younger voters, they are the least optimistic that America will elect its first black president. Only 48 percent of those 18 to 34 said they believe Obama will win, while 52 percent of those between 35 and 54 did, and 55 percent of those 55 and older did.

The survey was conducted June 9-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.