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How big a bounce did Obama get?

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor June 23, 2008 12:21 PM

Depending which poll you believe, Senator Barack Obama benefited from a big bounce as the general election campaign began in earnest -- or he didn't widen his lead over Senator John McCain.

A new Newsweek magazine poll gives Obama a 51 percent to 36 percent lead over McCain. The previous Newsweek poll in May had Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each and was conducted while Obama was still tussling with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

But a USA Today/Gallup survey shows Obama with a 50 percent to 44 percent edge over McCain. That lead is virtually identical to the one he had just after Clinton conceded and endorsed Obama earlier this month.

Other results from the poll give a mixed picture. About 60 percent of Democrats say they're more enthusiastic than normal about the election, while only about a third of Republicans feel as energized. While 70 percent say they worry that McCain's policies would be too similar to President Bush's, half are concerned Obama's changes would go too far. Almost one in 10 say Obama would be a less effective president because he is black, while nearly one in four say McCain, who would be the oldest person to start a first term as president at 72, would be less effective because of his age.

The Newsweek poll, conducted June 18-19, has a margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted from June 15-19, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

20 comments so far...
  1. I guess the only definitive thing is that McCain hasn't gained any ground. (But the fact that this is not even mentioned by the press just goes to show that this election is Obama's to lose, not McCain's to win.)

    Posted by Franklin June 23, 08 01:29 PM
  1. [sarcasm] Yeah, how could an incredibly intelligent black man possibly be effective as president? [/sarcasm]

    I'd have a little more faith in these polls if the data, and not just the interpretations, were made public.

    Oh yeah... GO OBAMA!!

    Posted by mike June 23, 08 01:33 PM
  1. If you average the polls, as is done most of the time, then between the t wo polls Obama has more than a 10% lead over McCain....Is not that a more realistic picture of the contest at this time? Moreover, regardless of the poll you follow, Obama has reach the 50% mark, and that is significat because its a reflection that independents and maybe some republicans intend to vote for Obama.....Also, with the third parties involvement in the election, a 50% draw by Obama at this time is a show of strength....McCain's policies will futher erode his support as time goes on and as more voters become familiar with them...


    Posted by Jim June 23, 08 01:35 PM
  1. Almost one in 10 say Obama would be a less effective president because he is black, while nearly one in four say McCain, who would be the oldest person to start a first term as president at 72, would be less effective because of his age.

    Maybe if the media, or whom ever is conducting these polls, stopped asking questions like these we could get on with the real issues needing to be addressed! Economy , Health Care etc... PLEASE.. Vote for the person closest to your own beliefs and not because someone is black or aging, but VOTE!!! Change is what we need in my opinion, and less stupid polling.
    PS.... Obama for President!!!

    Posted by Nekol D June 23, 08 01:46 PM
  1. McCain = OLD

    GOBAMA!

    Posted by Andrew Parker June 23, 08 02:13 PM
  1. To me the color of a mans skin has no significance in his ability to effect meaningful change. It is quoted in the Bible that God made man in his own image and likeness. Could God have been a white man ? it is no t stated anywhere in the bible. So if God was not very particular about color, lets leave Obama alone if the majority of American people feel he is their choice to bring about the changes they so desperately need.

    Posted by Alhaji A Sesay June 23, 08 02:17 PM
  1. Obama for President!! Why--because he is an intelligent, well educated, qualified young black man. Period. No more Republicans in office. Remember-- that we have no solutions to---the Medicare mess, the Illegal Immigration mess, the Social Security mess, the war in Iraq mess, not to mention the price of gas mess. We have had a predominately Republican Congress for 12 years--any more questions? Everyone keeps saying 6.5/7 years of the Republicans--- but please remember-Clinton had a Republican Congress.

    Posted by Donna Ludel June 23, 08 02:24 PM
  1. The two polls that were done during the same time period as the Newsweek poll (ending Thursday) - Fox and USA Today - show a 4 and 6 point lead, respectively. The two more recent polls (ending Sunday) - from Gallup and Rasmussen, show Obama with a 3 and a 6 point lead. The Newsweek poll continues to be written about, extensively, worldwide, even though it is the only poll that has showed anything larger than a 7 point lead for Barack of late. The realclearpolitics average of polls shows a mean 6.8% lead for Obama, a number which is tilted upward by the inclusion of the Newsweek numbers. What does that tell you?

    The most relevant and accurate of these would likely be the new Gallup poll, which has a sample nearly 3 times that of Newsweek's, was completed yesterday, was taken over more days and tests likely voters (more accurate than Newsweek's registered voters). That shows Barack leading by 6, a number that is surely disappointing, and surprising, to those in charge of his campaign.

    Posted by Rosalie June 23, 08 02:42 PM
  1. Wow a thread is replete with Obama supporters?
    Where have I been? >_

    Posted by Steph June 23, 08 03:05 PM
  1. If Radical Tax Increases are what you want, then give it to the fool.
    If you do not want America to pull itself out of this economic slowdown, then give it to the fool.
    If you do not believe in free enterprise, give it to the fool.
    Obama is the Fool.

    Posted by Kevin Downey, Conyers GA June 23, 08 03:16 PM
  1. FYi a second known terrorist orgainization has backed Obama for Presidency. This alone should be ehough to make people realize how much of a mistake Obama is.

    Posted by Jim June 23, 08 03:17 PM
  1. You liberal donkey's crack me up. Perhaps you want to turn the country over to a novice who wants to court terroists but I don't. You think keeping the country safe was an easy task these past 7 years. Keep drinking the Habeas Corpus cool aid and save the seals in anwar. Thanks to Clinton for the veto in 1995 we might have found the oil reserves that are needed today.
    There will be more Jeramiah Wrights etc. in the coming months.
    NOBAMA 08

    Posted by Frank June 23, 08 03:26 PM
  1. Follow the tracking polls, taken daily. These polls were on the money for the Democratic primaries as reflected by the popular vote tallies. The Newsweek poll should be trashed because the entire publication has been faulted for being so biased. But go to Gallup.com and Rasmussen.com every day and follow the tracking polls if you want to see the "bounce."

    Posted by Mandelay June 23, 08 03:28 PM
  1. Obama is the one who should have the upper hand at this moment and it sure
    doesn't seem like he has it.. I hope he continues to compare McCain to Bush.
    I think President Bush is without a doubt one of the most honest and decent
    Presidents we have had...in my mind he (Bush)should be more boastful and tell a few more people how it is..

    Posted by Mildred Crane June 23, 08 03:45 PM
  1. We are on the course for an Obamanation.

    Posted by Phil K. June 23, 08 04:11 PM
  1. McCain won't get any younger and Obama won't get any blacker or whiter.
    I guess people are choosing to be either ageist or racist.
    Let's please deal with the issues. These polls are ludicrous. The questions are moronic.

    Posted by T Foreman June 23, 08 04:13 PM
  1. Obama = RISK America cannot afford!

    Posted by jeri June 23, 08 04:16 PM
  1. A trend is developing....and an Obama win is now likely. So here's from a senior citizen: "Oh Obama, oh won't you win for me, 'cause I come from Americana with my grandkids on my knee."

    Posted by Jack in Washington State...the good Washington June 23, 08 04:42 PM
  1. Hillary tried to tell the biased press and super delegates that Obama would not get the electoral votes now everyone is shocked and says its because he is black. He had a little bounce after she endorsed him, but how he treats her in the coming months and how many Jeremiah Wrights and terrorists come out will take that bounce way down. I hate to break it to you Obama supporters, with his lack of experience and shady mentors, most people I know would rather have another 4 years of Bush, at least we were safe. With Obama, we can expect higher taxes for all, hard earned tax $ to Africa and other like organizations, a First Lady who has never been proud of America in her lifetime, a man who thinks people to turn to guns and religion out of bitterness. Well look who he turned to due to bitterness, his wonderful mentor, who helped form him to the man he is today, his "uncle" Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Looks like America is in trouble another 4 years. By then, Hillary will run again and will CHANGE America like it should be CHANGED... for the better of the people. Hillary I can't wait until you can say, "I told you so!" 4 more years and Hillary for 2012!

    Posted by Darlene Flynn June 23, 08 05:25 PM
  1. Polls at this stage are pretty meaningless. Obama will continue to have problems with working class voters who find him a risky choice.

    That's the problem you have when you promote an untested, inexperienced candidate with a flimsy resume as the DNC did.

    Posted by Catherine June 27, 08 10:08 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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