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Obama leads in key battlegrounds

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor June 18, 2008 09:55 AM

For the first time, Barack Obama leads John McCain in all three key swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to new polls released today.

The Quinnipiac University surveys say strong backing from blacks, women, and younger voters has pushed the presumptive Democratic nominee into the lead. Obama has a 47 percent to 43 percent lead in Florida, a 48 percent to 42 percent edge in Ohio, and a 52 percent to 40 percent lead in Pennsylvania.

In the three states, Obama leads McCain by 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while they're even among men. Obama trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.

Quinnipiac points out that no one has been elected president since 1960 without winning at least two of the three big states, which together hold 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

"Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president."

The polls were conducted from June 9 to June 16 in each state, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points in Florida and Ohio, and 2.5 percentage points.

23 comments so far...
  1. The one part of the republical playbook that the Obama campaign needs to borrow is the rove strategy of "working the precincts." In 2004 he got republical officials in the southwestern portion of Ohio to keep the polls open one hour after they closed in the rest of the state, even though the ration of polling machines to voters in those precincts was much lower than the same ratio in the northeastern part of the state, which is heavily Democratic. This breaking of election law allowed republical operatives to get more people to the polls and clinch the election.

    While there's nothing to prevent the republical snakes from using this same illegal tactic again, it shows how all elections are won at the precinct level. We need national election laws that ensure these republical leech tactics are prevented.

    Posted by cuzinjo June 18, 08 10:48 AM
  1. Watch the MSM ignore this story. Watch them to maintain that a 6% lead in the nationalpolls is "narrow" despite the fact it is a biggger plurality than any Dem, except Johnson. since 1944. (and bigger than Reagan in1980) Watch them promote their propaganda of lies and distortions as "objective journalism" (lol). Imagine them in fright wigs and red rubber noses and you then you can have lots of laughs this summer.

    Posted by Phrank June 18, 08 11:07 AM
  1. What are you smoking? Was that a poll of least likely to vote, liberal art college students? Barack the 'son of Dan' (Quayle) is a Chicago Gangsta. A Gangsta is only all that until the get busted, then they are just another convict. Besides, the son of Dan is sure to cause the start of WWIII. Now that's history in the making!

    Posted by Jon Iscream June 18, 08 11:11 AM
  1. Oh yeahhhh baby! That's what I'm talking about. If these polls are any indication of what November will bring, we're looking at a Reagan-esque landslide for Obama.

    Posted by Obamamania June 18, 08 11:15 AM
  1. It is essential that voters be well-informed, voting on the basis of true information. The better people get to know Obama, the more they like him. The opposite is true of McCain. McCain's strategy is to hope that voters don't learn about the skeletons in his closet. He has enough skeletons to fill cities full of closets!

    Please take a look at www.cain2008.org.

    I really do not think that the authors of that web site could make all that up! It would take about as much time and imagination as J. K. Rowling has to make all that up. You will also note that neither J. K. Rowling nor any similarly imaginative people are the authors of www.cain2008.org.

    Should America care at all about the First Americans? If we don't, who will? People outside of the United States know more about what goes on on "Indian" reservations than we do right here in the US! What's the solution to that? Should we fight to keep the rest of the world more ignorant, or should we US citizens become better informed? Remember, in the information age, the only way to keep people ignorant is to feed them a steady diet of American Idol, Britney Spears, Anna Nicole Smith, Paris Hilton, Jennifer Aniston (who? Never mind!) Lindsey Lohan, Hannah Montana, Miley Cyrus, JonBenet Ramsey, Jamie Lynn Spears, Nicky Hilton, Paris Hilton's dog, Ellen DeGeneres's dog, ad nauseum. Sometimes you have to change the channel, or better yet, turn the TV off when there's nothing on worth watching. Better yet, let's organize a campaign to tell the media what we consider newsworthy.

    Posted by Robert P. Singleton June 18, 08 11:33 AM
  1. Polls this far out don't mean much, but it does feel good to be vindicated.

    All of the "pro-Hillary" McSame shills that posted on here for months are now put to shame. What happened to the "swing state" argument that you were spewing. You knew it wasn't true.

    Posted by LM June 18, 08 11:41 AM
  1. Type your comment here...
    Your survey is not surprising. It will grow to double digits when people discover that at 70 years and above the brain can't multi-task well at all. Take it from someone a bit older than Senator McCain.

    Posted by Bob Pollock June 18, 08 11:42 AM
  1. Obama is a far left wing liberal who is out of touch with mainstream America. He has accomplished near to nothing in the US Senate before a run for US President.
    He is unqualified to run for President and he seems to be in favor of increasing taxes instead of controlling government spending; this is nothing new; it is the same sort of liberalism that is ruining America.

    Posted by Alex Ploud June 18, 08 12:25 PM
  1. Why can't Barack NOBAMA seal the deal with women? It's because of John McCain's positions on women. John McCain has lots of issues with women that Barack Obama does not. That's why he will WIN in November NOBama!

    http://www.womenforjohnmccain.com/

    Posted by Christina June 18, 08 12:30 PM
  1. I am an Obama supporter and I am very pleased by this poll result because it contradicts Clinton's central thesis that only she could win in these states. Her logic was faulty as these results show.

    That was my emotional response, my intellectual one is that it is only one poll, needs confirmation by other pollsters and confirmation over time. I am from Northern Florida and frankly I am surprised by the poll for Florida, but not for PA or OH. If Obama takes FL, the election will be a blowout, 53/47 at the worst.

    Posted by Gator-ron June 18, 08 12:36 PM
  1. Mr. Obama has demonstrated his hatred of America with his comments about PA voters being upset and bitter and angry at the lack of Government help in an economic downturn; he stated that 'these people' cling to 'God and guns' . Mr. Obama does not respect all of the Amendments to the US Constitution. The Second Amendment was put there ( NOT for hunters- like ignorant people think) but to protect US citizens from a tyrannical government and to allow ordinary citizens to protect themselves and their family. Police can not be every-where all of the time to protect every citizen. Wake up Opra nation!

    Posted by Adam Papley June 18, 08 12:40 PM
  1. Alex Ploud: "...it is the same sort of liberalism that is ruining America."

    For starters, republicals have controlled the White House for the last seven and a half years, and both houses of Congress. So it's not Liberalism, but conservatism "that is ruining America." And why is Liberalism, and not conservatism, apparently the dirty word here? Especially considering it was LIBERALS who gave us this great nation.

    The vote in favor of The Declaration of Independence was unanimous, and ALL of those who voted for it were LIBERAL. John Dickenson had led his group of conservatives to walk out in a foolish attempt to deny the Liberals a quarum. See in 1776 there was a word for conservative... TORY!

    Posted by cuzinjo June 18, 08 12:42 PM
  1. What is the point of these polls, in June? They're a nonstory, and journalists shouldn't be paying any attention to them at all. Surely you can find your story elsewhere? Like Darfur, for example. The more reported about that ongoing tragedy, the better! Or how about doing some more investigation into the inhuman actions and abuses of power of the current administration?

    I fear that all this unending coverage isn't doing either candidate any favors - even if they don't screw up at all, by November the people might simply be tired of hearing about them, and not vote.

    Posted by Igor June 18, 08 12:58 PM
  1. cuzino is correct in only one area. Republicans have been in charge of one branch of government recently and have made the Republicans look like liberals; I am a conservative and it sickens me to be associated with today's Republicans that spend more than their liberal friends across the aisle.
    cuzino's non-response to the issues is deafening.
    1) Is Mr. Obama unqualified to be President? If not, please state his accomplishments as a US Senator; not what he wanted to do (his intentions) but his actual accomplishments
    2) Does Mr. Obama propose to increase taxes and resort to Hilarycare that would make America like Canada and England (3-9 month wait for an MRI)?
    Wake up liberal Republicrats and Demicans!

    Posted by Alex Ploud June 18, 08 01:19 PM
  1. You just have to love the spin that the neocons still spew out. The fact that there are still right-wing supporters after what this clown has done to our nation is just mind boggling. I always thought that there were two kinds of republicans: wealthy or stupid. Now they're proving that they're just brainwashed lemmings (especially the female supporters). They'd follow their "leader" to death's door, no questions asked. Disgusting.

    Posted by PA Liberal and Proud of It June 18, 08 01:49 PM
  1. Of course Obama will win. Hillary did him a great favour by throwing every single thing the republicans could throw at him. Now Mccain is just doing the same thing and it is so old and ridiculous. Obama08

    Posted by Henry June 18, 08 01:57 PM
  1. Obama is in a very good position now that Hillary is out of the mix. So many people take the things that he says out of context, in order to make him look like a bad person. If a republican wins than what, we stay at war for another four years? I would much rather start chipping into our large worldly dept. In any case I thought I would share with you guys a website that I stumbled across that compares how all of the presidential candidates are doing across the online media, and it predicts who will win. I encourage you to check this out at, www.spartaninternet.com

    Posted by Ryan Smith June 18, 08 02:57 PM
  1. 1) John McSame's "qualifications":

    Poor Judgement: Voted in favor of sending troops to Iraq under false pretenses. In other words getting totally suckered by idiots who were lying us into a war that has made America LESS secure.

    Historically challenged when it comes to the economy: According to the Wall Street Journal and Business Week, the reagan tax cuts of 1981 DIRECTLY CAUSED the recession of 1981-1982, which is tied for the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. And it's tied with the nixon-Ford recession of the 70's. In less than a month Curious George's 2001 tax cuts took the U.S. from a budget surplus to a 450+ billion dollar deficit, directly causing his FIRST recession in 2001. TAX CUTS DO NOT IMPROVE THE ECONOMY!!!!

    2) "Mr. Obama propose[s] to increase taxes and resort to Hilarycare that would make America like Canada and England (3-9 month wait for an MRI)?"

    That statement is so misleading that it closely borders on a lie. No one who makes under 200K a year gets any increase in taxes under Obama's plan. And the U.S. gets the worst outcomes while paying the most per capita for health care than any other industrialized country on earth. The difference between us and them? We're the ONLY one that doesn't have some form of universal health care.

    Posted by cuzinjo June 18, 08 03:47 PM
  1. After our country elected Dubya for the second time (well, the first really, he lost in 2000 and stole Florida, but still...), I lost most of my faith in my fellow Americans. If McCain doesn't get DRUBBED in this election, I will lose the rest of what faith I have left. Not only does McCain represent the same old, same old of tax cuts for everyone and out of control Federal spending, he's just as bellicose as Bush and even CRAZIER. Can you imagine that old nutcase with his finger on the trigger? If that's not enough to keep you up at night I don't know what is.

    Who cares how effective you think Obama may or may not be in pushing his policies? ANYTHING is better than a continuation of this 8 year reign of moronitude. It's getting the point where Americans have to be ashamed of their country and its actions. That is ridiculous! I never thought I'd ever say that in my lifetime, but our nation is one of the largest causes of global instability in today's world. It doesn't have to be like this.

    You don't even have to like Obama and his policies. But holy smokes - anyone who can sit there and support McCain with a straight face when he's clearly the second coming of Dumbya... I just don't get it. He claims to stand for integrity in government despite the fact that his camp is littered with special interest groups. He runs on a campaign of moral courage after ditching his first wife who stuck with him through his years in captivity and then had the misfortune of being crippled in an accident. He runs on a campaign of change when the only change he wants is MORE troops in Iraq.

    Again, no matter how you feel about Obama - McCain flat out scares the pants off of me, as he should anyone with half a brain. The guy is a loose canon.

    Posted by J.P. June 18, 08 03:53 PM
  1. As a physician, I believe a health care system such as that of Canada or England would serve Americans well. Everyone there can get care. No one fears losing his job will endanger his life.

    The #7 killer of Americans? Lack of health insurance.

    Let's do away with that cause of mortality. I commit to taking care of Americans' health.

    Posted by Brook Wiers, MD June 18, 08 04:20 PM
  1. Where is Quinniapiac University? Do they know how to run polls?

    Posted by MK June 19, 08 11:35 AM
  1. The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

    Posted by susan June 19, 08 12:59 PM
  1. To: the United States Obama is not ready to run this country. If he can't abide by the rules thru his campane by useing money he promised he would'nt use.And says he's going to help the middle class people with tax breaks, money, insurance,healthcare.without the rise in our taxes. Then you better think again before you push that button or pull that handle on election day unless you are ready for a more worst hard times than we have now. The more he says the higher your taxes are going to be he want tell you now but remember Clinton he said he wouldn't when elected but did. So if you can live without then go for it but for me I would like to keep more of what I make instead of giving it to uncle sam. So Vote McCain on election day he will help us all and not raise your taxes.VOTE McCAIN. M.Lang North Carolina.

    Posted by Michael November 1, 08 01:08 AM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

Send your comments to masspolitics@globe.com

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