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The cold, hard numbers

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor June 2, 2008 10:18 AM

On the eve of the final Democratic primaries, the delegate math for Hillary Clinton is unforgiving.

At this hour, she trails Barack Obama by 157.5 delegates and is 202.5 away from the number needed to clinch the nomination.

If she splits the 31 pledged delegates at stake Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota -- probably a best-case scenario since he is favored in both states -- she would have to win the support of nearly all the fewer than 200 undeclared superdelegates remaining to close the gap significantly.

Barring a flood of declared superdelegates defecting from Obama to Clinton, that still might not be enough.

Another avenue would be to appeal the Democratic National Committee rules committee's decision to give Florida and Michigan delegates only half votes at the convention.

If the delegates' voting rights were fully restored, Clinton would get 24 delegates closer to Obama. And if Obama's delegates in Michigan -- where he removed his name off the ballot but was awarded the delegates from "uncommitted" votes -- she would close the gap by another 59 delegates.

But that would mean appealing to the credentials committee later this month, or even at the convention in late August -- a prospect that fills Democrats with dread.

So the most likely possibility is that Obama will get enough superdelegates and win enough pledged delegates Tuesday to be able to declare himself the nominee.

9 comments so far...
  1. HRC is really just making a mockery of herself if she does not withdraw on Wednesday morning. At this point she is nothing but a joke. Her math is fantastical at best, and her arguments are queasy. Super-delegates will coalesce around the rightful nominee who has done nothing but play the game fairly since it began.

    In December, Clinton was expecting the contest to be over February 5th. She did not plan for any of the contests after that, and she lost 11 in a row. It was at this point that it became apparent the strength and dignity that the Obama campaign has. Following this, the campaign raised oodles of cash, survived Wright, Ayers and bittergate, and wile coming in second in a few later states, has still managed to keep an insurmountable lead. He has won the votes from all classes of people: racial classes, economic classes, gender.

    In the meantime, Clinton did not lose gracefully. During February, her aids claimed that the states Obama won “did not matter” because they were too small or held caucuses. They racked up huge debts and begged children to sell their bikes to donate to the campaign. They played race card, claiming that only she could win WHITE working class voters. They played the age card, saying she could only win older voters. They tried to begin class warfare by pitting the “working class” against other in the Democratic Party. Clinton has been nothing but divisive and self-serving, attempting to bend the rules at every corner to suit her own goal. When she won small states, they suddenly mattered, even though they didn’t in February. Kentucky mattered only because she won it. Wisconsin didn’t matter because Obama won it.

    If you are on here posting as a Clinton supporter, ask yourself this: How can you be so blind and threatening to not vote or vote for McCain when Obama is on the ticket? Are you a woman feeling scorned? Do you think McCain will be fairer to womens rights than Obama? Are you older and believe Obama is not qualified? Would you rather have McCain’s foreign policy and 4-8 more years of Bush? What lessons haven’t we learned as Americans over the past 8 years? Bitterness does not serve our country well, and you all should think long and hard at your decision come November. And remember just who was divisive and bitter during this campaign.

    Posted by LM June 2, 08 10:37 AM
  1. Hillary Clinton is staying in the race for two reasons...to continue to whittle away at her fundraising deficit by continuing to collect money knowing she cannot win the nomination and, secondly, because she is in this for herself and not for her party or her county. All she has done is divide the democratic voters and only hurting their chances in November. Good riddance to her and Bill come the end of the week.

    Posted by Robert Brower June 2, 08 10:38 AM
  1. What rule will she want to change next? The suspense is killing me! Literally.

    Sincerely, The Democratic Party

    Posted by Jason June 2, 08 11:02 AM
  1. no sh*t. so why is she still in?

    Posted by Gavin June 2, 08 11:11 AM
  1. Senator Clinton and her aides signed off on the agreement to punish the states that did not follow the rules back in January. Now, Senator Clinton wants us to think that caucus states do not matter by excluding those states and US territories in the total popular vote count.

    To make matters worse, Senator Clinton is campaigning with the delegate from the US Virgin Islands and a US Virgin Islands DNC member who lives in Tennessee which neither of them represent the views and what US Virgin Islands voted for. The US Virgin Islands held caucus voting earlier this year and voted 90% to 10% in favor of Senator Obama.

    After the US Virgin Islands decisive victory, VI DNC Member Kevin Rodriguez decided to switch to Senator Obama. Now, he's back on Senator Clinton's band wagon (I'm getting dizzy with Mr. Rodriguez's switching back and forth). He was booted out as local government Personnel Director and now, he decides to jump ship again and go to Senator Clinton. Don't be fooled by Mr. Rodriguez. His waivering support may not hold for Senator Clinton within the next two weeks.

    Posted by Kim June 2, 08 12:23 PM
  1. Lookia sir, we were favourites from the start, we won the toss, we had more field-goal attempts, won more tackles, most of the fans watching at home love us to bits, tell him Bill, show him the stats, the interceptions, passing accuracy...the support messages.. "what do yu mean only goals count, rules? what do yu mean rules is rules?", oh, so you want rules, here's a new one: sack the godamm rules, our defensive record is not nothing.. let every stat count!

    PS: HRC '08 - Impeached by the American public

    Posted by xwill June 2, 08 03:33 PM
  1. Hillary’s remaining concerns:

    1. How much have I loaned my campaign?
    2. How much do I owe to vendors?
    3. How can I bilk more money from my supporters?
    4. How can I get paid first?
    5. How do I salvage my tarnished reputation with my NY constituency?
    6. How do I get out and save my face?

    Hillary, the Queen of Spin and a Legend in Her Own Mind!

    http://klintons.com

    Posted by Bob June 2, 08 04:14 PM
  1. To the rhyme of Hickory Dickory Dock ...

    Hillary Billary crock
    His spouse ran out the clock
    She just can't win
    So stop the spin
    The nominee is Barack!

    Stan Dingo

    Posted by Stan Dingo June 3, 08 01:02 PM
  1. Some of you posed valid concerns, but even though I am not going to pull out all of the negative qualities or the not-politically awesome things Obama was for, I want to understand why people believe in Obama. And I'm tired of the "he's charismatic" argument. That doesn't mean he'll impact change. Why did academics/professionals vote for him primarily?

    Some of us Clinton supporters may be bitter, but some of us truly did not believe in Obama from the start. Forget party loyalties, McCain seems like a much greater alternative than is Obama. McCain will carry most of the nations votes this November. We, as the millennials, can say whatever we want -- but we won't turn the nation. There are still more old folks who will outvote us.

    I still say, HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT 2008.

    Posted by MM June 3, 08 10:35 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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