< Back to Front Page Text size +

McCain closing gap in key swing states

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor July 31, 2008 09:49 AM

New polls of likely voters in key swing states shows Republican John McCain closing the gap on Democrat Barack Obama.

Quinnipiac University's survey in Florida shows Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent, compared to 47 percent to 43 percent last month.

The poll in Ohio also gives Obama a 46 percent to 44 percent edge, down from 48 percent to 42 percent last month.

And the survey in Pennsylvania has Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, compared to 52 percent to 40 percent last month.

"Florida and Ohio are now too close to call," the pollsters said today. "No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College."

The pollsters say Obama's overseas trip apparently didn't help because voters are more concerned with energy costs -- an issue McCain emphasized while his rival was abroad -- than the Iraq war -- an issue on which Obama benefited by Iraqi leaders generally agreeing with his withdrawal timeline.

The surveys show that a majority of voters support more offshore oil drilling -- a move supported by McCain and opposed by Obama.

"The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain's surge is a result of Sen. Obama's much-publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Sen. Obama was abroad," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's polling institute.
"While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying to fill their gas tanks."

The polls, conducted July 23-29, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points in Florida and Ohio and 2.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

33 comments so far...
  1. Aww Heck, everyone knows that Florida and Michigan only get 1/2 a vote, why bother to campaign there? I guess those states have forgotten how much Obama supported them, vice Hillary. Obama made sure they were only worth half an vote and then thought he was entitled to half of the half even when he didn't''t deserve it..LOL!! How soon they forget!

    Just a bunch of white, gun-toting ,uneducated, rural rubes....


    Posted by dragonfly777 July 31, 08 10:45 AM
  1. As already reported in the Boston Globe in late June, al Sadr's a likely favorite to have those who support him win parlimentary elections in October. The likely scenario when that happens? Iraq implodes. There's your October surprise. That, combined with Obama victories in Virginia and Colorado give him the win in November.

    BTW: "No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College." Hmmm... Who won the presidency then? And who, exactly, is Obama compared to the most? Makes you think.

    Posted by cuzinjo July 31, 08 10:50 AM
  1. oBAMA IS A FAKE IF IT WERNT FOR THE PRESS GIVING HIM SO MUCH UNDERSERED CREDIT HE WOUNT BE IN THE RUNNING

    Posted by jane davis July 31, 08 11:19 AM
  1. Wow, what a nuanced and elegant comment, 'jane'. I have to disagree that Obama "wount" me in the running were it not for the press; it likely has more to do with the millions of voters and supporters who underwent one of the more gruelling primary contests in recent memory. If you think the media is what "gives credit" to candidates and compels them to run, then you must be getting your "news" from Fox, or maybe the McCain campaign's smear tactics. I would worry now about how much better life might be under President Obama's admisintration than it has been uder the Bush Babies. And next time, please ask your mommy or daddy permission before adding a comment to a grownup's blog, okay?

    Posted by Valdisfox July 31, 08 11:56 AM
  1. McCain will do nothing for this country besides a continuation of the BS we are already going through, there is no new idea McCain has put forth. I have a hard time accepting that there are millions of Americans out there that have lived through the last 8 years of failed policy that are ready and willing to vote for the same. 7-10 years before we get benefits from off-shore drilling and by that time we could largely be weened of oil with blossoming renewable energy designs. We don't need oil covered beaches in California or privatized SS (kind of an oxymoronic wording.... private social... which is it, private security or social security) we also don't need a guy in office that shakes hands with Bush, the biggest failure of a U.S. President that has ever been. Obama 08.

    Posted by Brian K. July 31, 08 12:00 PM
  1. After the Hillary "We will vote for McCain if she don't win" people, I thought that I had heard the last of the stupiest ideas for Obama attacks. However I did not give the people who voted for Mr. Bush the credit they deserve. I could not for the life of me understand how people could support someone who have ran our reputation into the ground world wide, again I did ot give these people the credit they have earned. With that said if Mr. Obama does not become president, let it be known that he will still have the respect of the world. I have now come to the conclusion that we do not need to have Mr. Obama in the white house for him to be effective. However if Mr. McCain is in the white house he will only be a figure head and the world will still see us as weak, arrogant. and to be honest quite stupid, because it would take a weak, arrogant and stupid nation to convence itself that the best man to lead them has to be in a cookie cutter pattern and in lockstep with those who have lead us into this dire situation that we find ourselves in. I leave it to you.

    Posted by We The People July 31, 08 12:07 PM
  1. Obama is already President. Didn't you see him giving a speech in Germany like Kennedy and Reagan? What? You didn't elect him yet? Well, he didn't ask you. He asked 200,000 Germans, so bite it!

    Posted by Greg July 31, 08 12:11 PM
  1. Excuse me Valdisfox but this is still a free country and everyone is entitled to their opinion. Let's hope Obama doesnt give this freedom away should he wiggle in due to the press and not his (lack of) accomplishments.

    Just another election year with worthless candidates running for their own personal benefit.

    Obama is a phony!

    Posted by Dave from Framingham July 31, 08 12:14 PM
  1. wow....why the anger valdisfox??? don't worry your personal problems will soon go away...just take it easy. let's symbolically hold hands and sing

    Posted by al July 31, 08 12:18 PM
  1. If Florida and Michigan wanted their votes to count, they should have followed the freakin' RULES. Hmmm...why is that SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

    Posted by aukenlak July 31, 08 12:18 PM
  1. "uder the Bush Babies"? I would be careful about poking fun at others, Valdisfox, when you can't spell yourself. Of course arrogance and a condescending attitude are second nature for Obama and his supporters. In fact attacking critics of your candidate instead of addressing the criticisms is a typical conservative ploy (e.g. Hannity and Rush) that has been assumed by the Obama camp. But what else can you do when your candidate is an inexperienced, unaccomplished phoney with nothing to his credit but a fancy oratory style -stolen from his old minister?
    While I am a life long Democrat, I seriously doubt that life will be better under Obama and his do-nothing confederates (such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid). In fact, I think we could survive four years of McCain until a decent candidate emerges from the pile of crap that used to be the Democratic Party. I will have to wait four years to cast my vote but at least I won't be responsible for foisting a shallow dilettante onto the American Public.

    Posted by Marross July 31, 08 12:41 PM
  1. "Aww Heck, everyone knows that Florida and Michigan only get 1/2 a vote, why bother to campaign there?"

    That rule was for the Democratic Party nomination. Not the general election. The nomination campaigns are over, we're now in the campaign for the general election. Votes in Michigan and Florida will count as much as they ever did. The candidate with the most votes will get that states electors.

    Posted by Rocko July 31, 08 12:42 PM
  1. no way no how will Obama win. so stop dreaming. Some day a black man will be president ,just not this guy.

    So don't worry right minded people the left will lose AGAIN

    Posted by Matt from Norwood July 31, 08 01:25 PM
  1. Obuma is toast. There is almost zero chance Americans will elect the media clown with zero qualifications to be President. Once they focus on it in the fall - its game over. Why Dems always seem to nominate the least electable candidate or in this case the only candidate who can't win is unbeleivable.

    Posted by Fred July 31, 08 01:49 PM
  1. As a Florida Democrat and now a resident of Pennsylvania, McCain is NOT going to win either state. Floridians from all age groups are asking, "What has happened to McCain?" They are seeing McCain as and angry, belligerent, jealous old former "celebrity" who has lost what little substance he may have had when he entered this race.

    Obama will be victorious not only because it is time for some fresh ideas and vision for the future, but all the negativity that McCain slogs along with him is depressing. People do need hope, no matter how hokey that sounds, and McCain isn't delivering it.

    Time will tell, not daily random polls.

    Posted by KCH July 31, 08 01:50 PM
  1. I love how the Globe makes this a tiny headline, if it had been reversed and the Democratic underdog was closing the gap it would be a banner headline.

    Aren't any of you Obama supporters the least bit scared that in this hugely democratic election cycle your candidate can't seem to break free?!!

    McCain is actually a terrible campaigner, unless he is in a town hall setting, hasn't rallied any one group behind him and yet he is closing the gap in the key states to swing the electoral college in his favor.

    Let's face it Obama, is an egotistical elitist who is not adequately prepared to assume the Presidency.

    Posted by Rich July 31, 08 02:27 PM
  1. Looking at the headlines and seeing that McCain is actually coming close to Obama makes me even more disgusted as an American citizen. McCain has completely lost who he once was just to please his sad conservative base that can only win an election by distracting from their lack of interest and understanding of international politics. How many times can a party fail before people wake up and say NO MORE CLEANING UP THESE HORRIBLE MESSES. America can no longer survive as an isolationist seeking oil. The republican party is out of touch with world politics, the need to break our dependance on fossil fuels (off-shore drilling a quick fix that wont last), and the hope that America once was (a beacon of progress and equality). McCain and his groupies continure to increase my embarassment as an American!

    Posted by nch2008 July 31, 08 03:36 PM
  1. Obama is little more than a creation of Hollywierd and America's left-leaning news media....Like O.J. Simpson... Remember him?

    Posted by Richard July 31, 08 06:50 PM
  1. I'm living proof that a Democrat for 15 years can be turned off by anti-war, anti-America protestors, the openly liberal and openly political media and by the Democratic representatives that ran with this group once they saw it as the politically popular thing to do. There are many more out there like myself who have grown sick of the way that the Democratic party has changed. The shift in the polls should be no surprise to anyone who is not blinded by partisanship, ideology or identity politics. The Democratic party during the Clinton years was nowhere near as hideous as it has become today. So much so that despite still being a registered Democrat, I will vote straight Republican this election cycle.

    Posted by FloridaVic July 31, 08 07:22 PM
  1. Considering BHO's lack of experience and accomplishments, you would expect the media to research and report on his "academic" accomplishments????...after all the media and dems deride President Bush for lack of intelligence. Although I understand his IQ is well over 125; I bet BHO had no stellar academic achievment, nor any other matters of noteworthiness to his credit,and his IQ is most likely well below W's.

    It is truly sad that the first serious??? black candidate for President has absolutely nothing of substance going for him.

    Posted by ACT, "always conservative Tom" July 31, 08 09:51 PM
  1. I'm from N. Virginia and want a govoner who understands that ALL THE BILLS HAVE TO BE PAID. Their the ones who realize that money can't just be printed out of thin air. But will settle for someone my fathers age than my siblings age. I was raised in Greenville, SC and even worked over top of Jesse Jackson's grandmother when she was still here. I go to church and belive in Jesus Christ! You can not belive in Gay Marriage, and Abortion and call yourself a CHRISTIAN. So McCAIN is the man for me even though I am of mixed race, I still have to get my guidence from the BIBLE. I belive OBAMA and REV. WRIGHT are on a path to HELL. I am registering everyone I talk to and GOD help us if McCAIN don't WIN.

    Posted by Jon Owens August 1, 08 02:07 AM
  1. wake up you stupid people. OPRAH has already bought herself a president, because America is too worried that Europe might not like us. We need to put our own intrests first. If the UN had of done it's job we wouldn't be in Iraq. 72 times they were warned to come clean. Note that Obama is the most far left person in congress. McCain is a democrate in sheeps clothing. The Hollywood bunch need to stay out and let us POOR SIMPLE MINDED people decide this election. THE vIEW IS LOOKING OUT ONLY ONE EYE, HEW BI**HES MOVE YOUR HAND AWAY AND LOOK AT THE whole PICTURE. god bless elizabeth

    Posted by Jon Owens August 1, 08 02:19 AM
  1. US 2008 election is unlike any other prez elections. It is a battle of wits and strategies. McCain's troop surge has worked; our troops are leaving Iraq; restrictions on off-shore oil drilling had been eased; all the while that they have sent Barack Obama to foreign travels to gain knowledge and experience on foreign relations. He came back, though, with the celebrity status of Brit Spears and Paris Hilton...

    Posted by Omar Tabing August 1, 08 04:18 AM
  1. Lets see... do I want style or substance? Do I want domestic or foreign oil? Do I want higher or or lower taxes. Do I want the the Dema-gogs to control everything?
    Is McCain really Bush? nobody is that dumb.

    Posted by Independic August 1, 08 09:20 AM
  1. I have always been republican,though my parents,and grand parents were democrats.My day woke up in 1976,and switch parties.In all fairness this democratic party is not your grandpas democratic party,I can't even imagine a democrat saying what I hear every day in the house of Rep., and on the senate floor.
    It makes one wonder why theres not a movement afoot to disband this murderous rapeing military.Can you even imagine a senator just a few years ago, declaring defeat as the battle continues.What if senator Henry Jackson after learning that 7000 of our men had been killed in the first 35 days on Iwo jima had said what Harry Reed said that all is lost we pullout,and bring our troops home.

    Posted by Lloyd Middleton August 1, 08 09:41 AM
  1. obama is not only black, but he is white! in fact he is more white than black, just ask his mothers family. The definition does not fit the reality given this man is, it is a false perception that has its roots in the 1500th century for the purpose of class separation, and it still dominate's the minds of individuals and institutions in america today. These definitions could only exist in a racist society. Their are some of you that are pure racist, while others are brainwashed no matter what race you are. This is the application of a definition given to suppress a certain class of people based on race for economic,(race only makes it convenient )this definition has led to slavery, and after those slaves were freed, there were laws created (jim crow) to inforce and purpetuate that class separation. America is surely a racist society whose history and class perceptions define it as such today, how else is child born to a white woman who was raised by white family (his grandparents by the way) be defined as black.

    Posted by wayne August 1, 08 11:24 AM
  1. I am a lifelong Democrat, entrenched enough in the system that I have run for State office, an early supporter of Obama who now is so disapointed in his pragmatic pandering to the Democratic base that I can no longer support him. The candidate of change has shown himself to be nothing more than a shill for the liberal (and very vocal) component of our party. Candidates of change must be people of principle, willing to stand alone if need be because it is the right thing to do. And as a Presidential candidate that right thing must be first and foremost what is best for the American people and America. Courage and conviction to change are rare commodities in political people. Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt (2 Republicans and two of the greatest Presidents of all time), and FDR are examples of men who did unpopular things because they knew thy were the right thing for the American people and for America itself. Obama possesses little of their vision and none of this greatness in him. He has already evidenced his intention to abandon the best interest of America (becomming energy self sufficient and strengthening our economy through the production of jobs and reducing the trade deficit via reduction of importing oil from countries that hate us because our morality does not meet with their approval - and he can guarantee it will be done in an eviromentally safe manner and that money is set aside for complete restoration of the land) in favor of caving in to the whims of the enviromentalists. He is already dedicating himself to raising spending on social programs regardless of their effectiveness. He has shown himself to be not a traditional Democrat in the mold of John Kennedy (fiscal conservative, strong defense, social moderate), but a socialist more in the mold of Huey Long. McCain wouldn't be close if Obama was the man we need, but he is not. And so we teeter on the edge of electing an old man who will likely die in office still waiting for the Democrats to produce a true leader.

    Posted by NYDEM August 1, 08 11:27 AM
  1. As an educated Democrat, I will unfortunately support McCain. I consider Obama to be an incompetent puppet and a threat to America.

    Posted by RAY August 1, 08 12:37 PM
  1. After reading all of the negative comments about the Democratic party and Obama I'm thinking that the bulk of the comments
    are from Republicans discised as Democrats in the hope of swaying votes.
    Well your not getting mine.
    Obama, Obama, Obama.

    Posted by Henry F. August 1, 08 01:35 PM
  1. After reading all of the negative comments about the Democratic party and Obama I'm thinking that the bulk of the comments
    are from Republicans discised as Democrats in the hope of swaying votes.
    Well your not getting mine.
    Obama, Obama, Obama.

    Posted by Henry F. August 1, 08 01:36 PM
  1. After reading all of the negative comments about the Democratic party and Obama I'm thinking that the bulk of the comments
    are from Republicans discised as Democrats in the hope of swaying votes.
    Well your not getting mine.
    Obama, Obama, Obama.

    Posted by Henry F. August 1, 08 02:00 PM
  1. No, I am not scared. Obama will win the election! He can win Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Montana, Alaska, North Dakota, Mississippi, and my home state of North Carolina. McCain's only answers are a quick fix here or there, so who's really the candidate of little substance?

    Too many right wingers moan and groan about how the dems are too far to the left, too focussed on impressing Europe, too elitist, too out of touch, blah blah blah. McCain is elitist to continue the Bush tax cuts, Ted Stevens is elitist too cheat taxes while the rest of us struggle to make ends meet, Elizabeth Dole is out of touch if she thinks she can get reelected after accomplishing nothing.

    As for Europe, we need to have strong relations in the world if we are ever to accomplish anything. Although I don't agree with everything every European ever said, I agree that Obama will open up the dialogue with the other countries and improve our relations that Bush pretty much destroyed. Obama will win, he has enough experience, and the conservative wing of the republican party has lost its head!

    Posted by Skippy Skip August 2, 08 03:20 AM
  1. I am from Virginia and will vote for Mccain in november.I do not think that my small business that I own will survive the tax increase that obama would surely impose on the country.Most people do not consider the fact that when taxes are raised on the top earners in the country that the goods and services that they sale to the lower tax bracket will increase to compensate for the taxes raised by obamas plan.It is my belief that obama has awaken a sleeping giant in this country and the true voter turnout will be in november as I have three children who have never voted and they have all signed on to the Mccain ticket.My parents ,aunts,uncles,cousins and many friends who haven't voted in the last three presidential elections will exercise that right this year.

    Posted by Tony August 3, 08 09:14 PM
add your comment
Required
Required (will not be published)

This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.

About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

Send your comments to masspolitics@globe.com

archives

browse this blog

by category