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McCain moving up in Florida, Ohio

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor August 26, 2008 11:06 AM

The latest polls in three crucial swing states in November show Republican John McCain taking the lead in Florida and tightening the gap in Ohio, but Democrat Barack Obama holding his edge in Pennsylvania.

The Quinnipiac University surveys released today say that McCain is leading by 47 percent to 43 percent in Florida, where Obama led 46 percent to 44 percent last month. In Ohio, Obama has a 44 percent to 43 percent edge, down from 46 percent to 44 percent a month earlier. And in Pennsylvania, Obama has an identical 49 percent to 42 percent lead.

"Eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama was on top in all three of these key swing states and that would make his election almost a sure thing. Times have changed and the election is now very much a tossup in these states. Sen. Obama needs this convention to give his campaign a jump start," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "Sen. Obama needs to close the sale with voters who want a Democrat, but because of Sen. McCain's strength at this point, they don't want this Democrat," said Brown. "Much of the reason for this disparity is that Sen. McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don't want a Republican in the White House."

The surveys, conducted Aug. 17-24, have margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points in Florida, and 2.8 percentage points in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Another poll out today in Ohio also showed a dead heat.

The survey of registered voters by the University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics found that Obama and McCain each drew support of 40 percent, with 20 percent undecided. A majority, 56 percent, however, said they believe Obama will carry Ohio in November.

"These results come as no surprise: Ohio has often been a close battleground
state and may be again in 2008," John Green, director of the Bliss Institute, said in a statement. "Neither party is fully united and achieving party unity will be an important goal of each convention."

10 comments so far...
  1. It was clear last spring that Dean, Pelosi, Reed, and the rest of the DNC lemmings decided they would rather lose with Obama than win with Hillary. That was a foolish decision then. And, it looks even more foolish today. Now the Democrats have to live with the decision.

    As a famous reverend once said: "The chickens are coming home to roost."

    Posted by Can you believe it's happening? August 26, 08 12:00 PM
  1. Hillary Clinton is tearing the party apart. Her speech tonight needs to be nothing short of spectacular. She needs to bring her supporters back to Obama, or she'll never be elected President.

    Posted by Mike August 26, 08 12:21 PM
  1. Someone tell these high IQ voters that McCain is a Republican please ...

    Posted by Jack Kenney August 26, 08 01:07 PM
  1. Someone tell these high IQ voters that McCain is a Republican please ...

    Posted by Jack Kenney August 26, 08 01:27 PM
  1. GO MCCAIN !!! WOOOOO HOOOOO !!!!!

    Posted by I hate Obama !! August 26, 08 01:27 PM
  1. Americans are becoming dumb and dumber...they deserve what they get...a President who will ensure that the highest income 1% of the population will continue to siphon off all those newly printed Federal Reserve dollars while they get $600 rebate checks. Like salivating dogs they believe Rove's and McCain's ads. But it's too bad the Dems, always the nice guys, don't know how to deal with a numb and dumb population...Republicans are masters at it...

    Posted by Joe August 26, 08 01:44 PM
  1. This high IQ voter will think for herself, thank you. The problem is, like Quayle was no Jack Kennedy, Obama is no Clinton. I have no problem with others acting like sheep. But I will make the decision for myself, without the dogma of group think.

    Posted by CG August 26, 08 02:00 PM
  1. Let's take a step back here... no need for a fire drill in August. There's a long way to go.

    One thing lost in polling numbers-- voter turnout. And there's absolutely no doubt about it this year, democrats are far more motivated than republicans. Not to mention that the organization Obama has built across the country looks like a Fortune 500 to McCain's mom and pop shop.

    Posted by Long way to go August 26, 08 02:03 PM
  1. I am more convinced than ever that few Americans have a historical perspective. Recall that in 2000 Ralph Nader made the baffling assessment that there was little difference between Gore and Bush. Let's not be deluded again as we recall that there was an enormous difference; Bush was one of the most divisive, partisan, republican administrations ever. The "uniter" was in fact a divider. And a liar. And incompetent, and criminal, and at odds with our constitution, and determined to rig governmental agencies to act in opposition to the mandates that brought them into being in the first place.
    That, after all is said and done, it is the Republican-ness that most defines Bush's approach...and what the nation experienced in the following 7 1/2 years.
    For those Hillary Clinton supporters that are proclaiming that they'll vote for, not just McCain, but, it must be reminded, a REPUBLICAN administration, I ask that they imagine another republican in office for 4 to 8 more years will look like. Among a number of important factors, consider that a republican administration will have another opportunity to make a set of appointments to the Supreme Court. As a supporter of HC perhaps they'd consider whether this lines up with what she'd be doing if she won?
    Rest assured, under a republican administration, the judiciary will be permanently tilted to the extreme right,....and consider what this will mean for this country. That should give some idea what a vote for McCain represents.

    A responsible citizen must soberly consider these facts.

    Posted by Ray August 26, 08 03:15 PM
  1. Obama and Biden are the #1 Most Liberal and 3 Most Liberal senators. This means that are constantly for tax increases and increasing the size of government. More taxes means fewer jobs and slower growth in the economy.
    Please vote for Obama if you want to deal with regulations on health care that will be written by the same bureaucrats that wrote the tax code.
    Obama is a great talker and gives great speeches. Howerver, if anyone can name an important, positive accomplishment of Obama, I would be amazed.
    We are hiring a President and it is important to elect someone that has proven character with no questionable associations with people that are terriorists, influence peddlers and people that do not have the best interest of America at heart. Obama talks great but his back ground and failure to have positive accomplishments should give us all concerns.

    Posted by hardworking October 7, 08 04:45 PM
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About political intelligence Field reports from Boston Globe reporters and editors covering the 2008 presidential campaign and the national maneuvering of Bay State politicians.

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