Turnout Obama's 'ace in the hole?'
The latest "Battleground Poll" from George Washington University reinforces what seems to be consensus among national polls just preceding the nominating conventions -- the horse race is neck and neck, despite disdain for Republicans and the Bush administration generally.
In the poll, released today, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are statistically tied, with McCain leading 47 percent to 46 percent in a survey with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. They're also tied in favorability, at 57 percent each.
“It is amazing how similar the image scores appear to be for both Barack Obama and John McCain. If Obama is this agent of change that America has been waiting for, why is his image no better than the nominee from the other party—a political party whose brand is supposed to be so badly damaged?” Republican pollster Brian Tringali asks in a release on the poll.
McCain is moving up largely because his standing is improving among all-important independent voters. He leads Obama by 10 percentage points, after trailing by 14 percentage points in May.
Interestingly, though, 51 percent of voters say they believe Obama will win, compared to 34 percent who pick McCain.
And Democratic pollster Celinda Lake points out that the poll findings are based on a typical turnout for a presidential election -- and that a big part of Obama's candidacy is to bring new voters, mostly younger ones, to the polls.
“Voters are looking for change," she said in a statement. "That gives Obama a real advantage in this election even as McCain tries to reinvent himself. Among undecided voters, Obama has a decided advantage in being better liked. This poll also modeled a traditional electorate. However, Obama has the ability to change the electorate. Simulating modest gains in youth turnout takes the ballot to a 2-point advantage for Obama. Changing the face of the electorate is Obama’s ace in the hole.”



Excellent spin, but it is spin isn't it. Take any poll that shows McCain ahead and spin it as a positive for Obama. Take any poll where Obama is ahead and tell the public how ineffective McCain is. Is it any wonder Americans are sick of the biased press. Why don't you just report the news instead of trying to tell us how to think. We're smart enough to know that a poll that shows either candidate ahead is not good news for the other candidate no matter how you try to spin it. Grow up for God's sake. We're really not as stupid as you think we are.
If the "kids" turn out, then Obama will win. He'd have numbers on his side. But as I recall, the 2000 and 2004 elections were supposed to turn on such things as well, and it didn't quite work out. McCain's advantage is that his supporters -- older voters -- are much more reliable in terms of turnout. He's a given. Obama's not.
Finally someone's got the good sense to realize that even though the polls continuously stay neck and neck, it's not an accurate representation of all of the previously unregistered voters that will participate this year.
It's as if they find 1000 democrats and republicans, ask them the poll questions, and then never factor in for how many democrats and republicans will actually be participating come november.
I've seen people that never vote register for this season, especially among millennials who see this as the last best hope for positively influencing their middle years. All of the kids that were too young to vote Gore, came of age under Bush and 9/11, and got discouraged in 2004 are back with a vengeance.
Obama and his "change" routine won't get him elected. People are seeing that Obama is unable to articulate what he is for and against because he refutes his policies almost as quick as the polls change. He doesn't seem to be fundamentally stable and "change" is bad when it's his mind that's always changing.
Besides, after seeing him grinning alongside Reverend Wright, his mentor and spiritual advisor, I fail to understand why people can't see who he really is. A racist president can't be good.
I still don't get it!!! who in the hack are you polling, NO one i know has ever been polled, So tell me plase. And plase don't tell me the more likely people to vote, because my next question is who is that???
Everyone I know votes, we are in our mid 40s, and we vote. so will some one tell who in the hack are you polling??????????????????????????????????
why are the rest of the Democrats missing in action? I don't hear a squeak from anyone of them. where are hillary, kerry, bill, al gore? don't they want democrats back in power?
here all republicans are acting united.
I don't understand the insanity! If insanity is repeating the same action and expecting a different outcome then why would anyone vote Republican?
I wouldn't be surprised to see much more voter turn-out for this election, for both candidates really. I'm 30, and this is the first election I've actually felt interested in voting in, and I'm even going out of my way to encourage others to vote. In my home state every vote cast counts for 500 other voter's vote, because turnout is so poor.
Obama certainly is about change - he changes his position about as often as the sun comes up. Let’s see -
1) Off-shore drilling,
2) Late term abortions
3) Meeting with terrorists unconditionally
4) Complete objection to FISA
5) Campaign finance reform
6) NAFTA
7) Pulling troops
This doesn’t even begin to cover the people he has known all his life who he has been forced to throw under the bus because HE has to have a changed image to have a hope of getting elected. Yeah – he is about change alright and this is just a prelude to the changes he would put in place for this country. NO THANK YOU OSCAMA!!!!
No matter what the Liberal Media says, I don't think majority of the voters can be twisted and be lured with just good speeches or talk, unexperience and flip-floping is the worst part of character, if you can't decide straight, then you can't lead.
Maby we should rethink hrc? Folkswe don't have to vote for either of these. we have another choice. if i were to vote for obama i feel i would be taking as much of a chance on him as i would Nader. at least i know who he is, what good he's done, and what he stands for. maby it's time for " my team" thinking to end.
I believe Obama would be a shoe in, if he had Hillary on his ticket for vice-president. There has been a lot of talk about her name being written in for president! (So I am sure she will be written in for vice-president.)
Question: Is McCain really alive and walking ? He is really going overboard with constantly bringing up "his days when he served his country", it is getting old and as boring as he is. He ought to do a head count as to how many other men and women have served this country. Just because he was a POW and served his country it does not qualify him for president.
I think that these polls are misleading and the internet is fueling that fact. I would lijke to the people who runs these polls talk to real live people and ask their opinion to me that would be more accurate than relying on the past turnout. I think Senator Obama should be given the benefit of the doubt because alot of young people are voting more now than before.
Wait for the debates...Barack will tear McCain a new one. That is, if the Maverick doesn't screw up on his own before that - which is almost bound to happen.
Obama is blowing it. That European trip ...he probably should've just stayed home. Then he takes a vacation in Hawaii! That's great! I'm sure those folks who are losing their homes can identify with that! Obama needs to hit McCain hard on the economy : John's lock-step with Bush policies and his Phil Gramm detachment. Obama needs to get Wesley Clark to be his VP running mate. Obama needs to turn the tables on McCain. John's the real elitist, with his $500 shoes and multi-millionaire heiress wife. And talk about family values! John's the philanderer and Cindy's the drug addict! Obama needs to take this guy out before he gets swift-boated! DNC, are you listening? Heck, the GOP hasn't even trotted out the Rev Wright and other goodies yet. Wake up Barack!
I feel the polls are misleading and shouldn't be determined by past election turnout because Senator Obama has generated alot of new voters that should be factored into the numbers. So why isn't Senator Obama getting credit for these voters?
I think the people whose running these polls are out of touch with reality.
It pains me to say it, but Obama's popularity with young and minority voters won't be his "ace in the hole" unless they can vote for him by texting #3738 to an 800 number. Unfortunately, voting for the next President requires a little more investment than the Tuesday night American Idol contest.
They'll likely wake up on a cold, rainy November morning, groggily decide that Obama's surely going to win anyway, and go back to sleep -- just like they did in 2004.
McCain supporters, few though they may be, strike me as the type who will inconvenience themselves to perform their civic duty.
I'm a registered independent who will likely support McCain in the voting booth, but I have a healthy respect for Joe Biden. Regardless of outcome, I'd be gratified to see Americans pry themselves off their couches en masse and leave their houses to do something responsible.
Its almost time for the next republican scandal that will put them in their rightful place. Remember: A scandal a day keeps republicans at bay.
John McCain says he will catch Osama Bin Lauden if he has to follow him to the gates of Hell. Why hasn't he gone over and done this instead of boasting about it?
What is he waiting for?. Bring the troops home and send McCain right now. What he is really saying is that our troops will catch Osama at the cost of many, many Ameerican lives and trillions of our tax debt.
This guy is living in the past. Our troops are fighting and dying. Is he saying their efforts are not enough and that he alone could do better. I don't want to support troops there for 100 years as McCain suggests. He is so cavalier about lives and money...money, he's got too much fo that. Get real, John.
I vote for the person, not the party. I am from India but I am an American citizen. Obama has no substance, just talk. You can not run the country with speeches. He changes his mind on almst every issue. McMain has the vision. Obama follows him. Would it be correct to say that Obama is a copy cat?
Polls are like Pre-Season football; they don't count, are rarely accurate, and our just something for people to talk about. No truth or validity will come from it. After the election, the media will explain why it wasn't accurate, and come up with reasons that fit their logic. Again, no base in fact, just an explanation of the "truth." Everybody relax, vote for the person who most represents your idea and vision for America. Done. Let the media play their games of tit for tat. In the end, your vision of the future America will determine the outcome.
Obama's slide in the polls reminds me of the Far Side cartoon where the giant cockroach lying in an alley is talking to a bum saying: "I had it all: great job, great car, money, success, beautiful wife. Then one day someone shouted, 'Hey! He's just a big cockroach!'".
NObama '08
I believe that if people vote with their intellect John Mccain will win.The message of CHANGE Obama is banking on is starting to fade away from voters mind because of the confusion that is now floating in the air of the exact change he's trying to define.Voters are asking themselves what is he going to change because Obama seems reversing himself and his message since lately.As a parent if you promise your child a candy if he be good and you didn't keep that promise your child will forever remember it and that you lied.
Who said that we need to do this?
- A heavy progressive or graduated income tax.
- Abolition of all rights of inheritance through significant inheritance taxes.
- Centralization of the means of communication and transport in the hands of the state.
- Extension of factories and instruments of production owned by the state or through heavy regulation by the state.
- Ease of workers to form labor unions through the abolition of secret and private unionization elections.
Was it Barack Obama??
Was it Karl Marx & Frederick Engels (The Communist Manifesto)??
Was it Both??
If the "kids" turn out, then Obama will win. He'd have numbers on his side. But as I recall, the 2000 and 2004 elections were supposed to turn on such things as well, and it didn't quite work out. McCain's advantage is that his supporters -- older voters -- are much more reliable in terms of turnout. He's a given. Obama's not.
Did you ever notice that in every single one of your columns you always give the last word to Obama's people and you give the headline a "positive" spin for Obama? The truth in this article is that McCain has eliminated a large lead held by Obama. The rest of the article simply shows your lack of journalistic integrity as you try to soften the blow and give reasons/justifications. You always look for a snippet that sounds like all things are rosy for Obama and you end the article with that. You always make sure to lead the quote with the persons name so that you can end with their words. It is truly a sad sad state of affairs. Don't you guys have even one true journalist that works there?
Where in the world is Walter Cronkite when you need him?
McCain should pick up Hilary for VP.
so sad americans will vote for someone who talks of war all the time, he track ben to gates of hell, no he will send our children to fight an unjust war, in favor of off shore drilling, when every intellgent economist know this is a waste of time, why don't we read, research if we dill we would understand that this will not send prices (oil and gas) down. We simply donot have that much more oil in the ground. This man graduated 30th in his class, talks about winning wars, the last time i checked we lost the Viet Nam war. he gave in to his chaptures, I would have done the same. American want someone who will lie to them, sound bites, solgans, no child left behind, mission acomplished, fight em over there so that they don't come over here... But you know what they say " the people get the government they deserved, 4 more years - sorry obama is black -white
No Bias here. /sarcasm
Obama is toast as people relize he is not a leader but plays one behind a teleprompter
I still don't get it!!! who in the hack are you polling, NO one i know has ever been polled, So tell me plase. And plase don't tell me the more likely people to vote, because my next question is who is that???
Everyone I know votes, we are in our mid 40s, and we vote. so will some one tell who in the hack are you polling??????????????????????????????????
Either McCann or Obama will be a breath of fresh air after the disastrous reign of
the current administration.
We could have had a monkey throwing darts to make better choices than the Bush administration.
I'll give you one guess as to why Obama's image is no higher.
Obama certainly is about change - he changes his position about as often as the sun comes up. Let’s see 1) Off-shore drilling,
2) Late term abortions
3) Meeting with terrorists unconditionally
4) Complete objection to FISA
5) Campaign finance reform
6) NAFTA
7) Pulling troops
This doesn’t even begin to cover the people he has known all his life who he has been forced to throw under the bus because HE has to have a changed image to have a hope of getting elected. Yeah – he is about change alright and this is just a prelude to the changes he would put in place for this country. NO THANK YOU OSCAMA!!!!
If only Americans could stand back and take a good hard look at their Presidential election procedure, they would soon see how utterly outdated and indeed dangerous it is in this 21st century. In the old days before telecommunications+ TV + radio broadcasts, of course it made sense to allow months for candidates to tour the country.
But now, when speeches in Washington DC can be seen live as far away as Alaska, and when the domestic economy vanishes down the plughole in jst a few weeks and when foreign 'incidents' can whip up political storms overseas, the USA simply cannot afford:
- a sitting duck President for all the months of the 4th year in office;
- spending trillions on elections when victims of Hurricanes Katrina and Andrew are still not compensated or even rehomed;
- the media interpreting or dictating the candidates' messages to the electorate;
- the hideous disappointment of ruined electoral ballots due to poor design and/or faulty machines and/or poor infrastructure - Florida 2000, anyone?;
- becoming a laughing stock of foreign countries - Russia has just said "So what?" when Bush started waving his unloaded handgun.
It matters, it really matters overseas that the right person should get to the White House. This person should not be elected purely as a result of biased TV stations and talk show hosts. This person should be elected after a quick fire Party campaign lasting 3 months maximum, say September to November, elections in December and moving house in January.
Try it. Whatever candidates you get as a result, at least they will be modern enough to keep up with the innovation-savvy electorate.
Obama certainly is about change - he changes his position about as often as the sun comes up. Let’s see 1) Off-shore drilling,
2) Late term abortions
3) Meeting with terrorists unconditionally
4) Complete objection to FISA
5) Campaign finance reform
6) NAFTA
7) Pulling troops
This doesn’t even begin to cover the people he has known all his life who he has been forced to throw under the bus because HE has to have a changed image to have a hope of getting elected. Yeah – he is about change alright and this is just a prelude to the changes he would put in place for this country. NO THANK YOU OSCAMA!!!!
God forbid Obama will be president there will be more crime if you look at greensboro N.C what is mostly black and the crime is very high,there are more blacks in jail than whites. And that's why we should vote for a black president no way we better off with John McGain he will make a new republican goverment and not the same as Bush administration, Furthermore Obama is to Liberal for this country to run , thank you.
regards H Brinkhuis
How true! McCain, after a steady week of negative campaigning while Obama wasn't even on the campaign trail, finally caught up to Obama. But it won't last. Obama is campaigning again. He's raising money. And he's got a great game on the ground.
God forbid Obama will be president there will be more crime if you look at greensboro N.C what is mostly black and the crime is very high,there are more blacks in jail than whites. And that's why we should vote for a black president no way we better off with John McGain he will make a new republican goverment and not the same as Bush administration, Furthermore Obama is to Liberal for this country to run , thank you.
regards H Brinkhuis
The reason that McCain is doing so well is because contrary to the major news media every effort, the Republican Party Brand is NOT badly damaged. Democraps and the media have done their best daily to bad-mouth President Bush, but even with all their efforts, Republican Party is still recognized as the Party that Gets THings Done! Further, Bush has proven himself to be quite capable as President of the USA and far better than the likes of the Clintonistas or any other little Democrap that you can name. Any Democrap is nothing more than a pimple on Bush's Ass and should be proud to have even half the integrity or ability.
George Walker Bush
William Jefferson Clinton
Barak Hussein Obama
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Why does the media give Obama a free ride on his Arab name?
Obama surrounds himself with those seeking Israel's destruction. Is that what youth actually want? To support Jihad?
Plus young voters have a long history of making a lot of noise but not showing up at the booth to vote. Obama's base is composed mostly of young voters and liberals, both rarely care to cast their ballot.The next president of America will John McCain, just mark my words.
Turn out is important in elections? Duh, ya think?
Getting out the vote will win this election.
Who is better organized on the ground to get out the vote?
From all accounts, I'd say Obama.
I think that these polls are misleading and they shouldn't be determind by past election turnout. Why are the young voters factor in when determing the numbers?
I think the people generating these polls are out of touch with reality.
This article is true. 40% of registered voters didnt bother to vote in the 2004.
Between the ones who dont even register and the ones who register and dont vote, they could make anyone the president if they just voted.
Based on listening to real people, I think that the ones who dont vote are bitter, after all. Clinton put on a good show and a happy face, but she was lying and it undermined a real argument, a real consideration. Many Americans are quite bitter, so bitter that if you ask them about what Obama said, in detail, they would agree with every single word.
That's why they dont even vote. And yes, many people are so bitter about Washington ignoring them to give money to multi-milionaires and WTO companies that they DO put their attention and hopes and fears into personal interests like guns, and abortion and other matters that are not really about the nation's needs.
Sadly, Obama's followers tend to be strongest among groups with lots of strong opinions but terrible voting records. If they don't turn those opinions into actions (by actually voting in November), it's going to be a big night for McCain.
Polls are like Pre-Season football; they don't count, are rarely accurate, and our just something for people to talk about. No truth or validity will come from it. After the election, the media will explain why it wasn't accurate, and come up with reasons that fit their logic. Again, no base in fact, just an explanation of the "truth." Everybody relax, vote for the person who most represents your idea and vision for America. Done. Let the media play their games of tit for tat. In the end, your vision of the future America will determine the outcome.
Obama's slide in the polls reminds me of the Far Side cartoon where the giant cockroach lying in an alley is talking to a bum saying: "I had it all: great job, great car, money, success, beautiful wife. Then one day someone shouted, 'Hey! He's just a big cockroach!'".
NObama '08
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