Voting crisis in November?

By Joseph Williams, Globe Staff

DENVER -- Given the number of votes cast in the hard-fought Democratic primary -- and the massive voter registration drives that went with it -- conventional wisdom has it that voter participation for this fall's election will be at an all-time high.

Doug Chapin, who studies voting patterns for a living, said election officials may be taken by surprise by how many people will demand the right to vote, triggering serious problems for a system that isn't designed to handle it.

Chapin, the director of the Pew Center's electionline.org, drove home his point with the famous scene from the movie "Jaws," when would-be shark hunters Quint, Hooper, and Chief Brody first get a glimpse of their massive prey.

"You remember that line -- 'We're gonna need a bigger boat'?" Chapin told a morning seminar on election trends. "That is what election officials and administrators are looking at. We're going to need a bigger boat."

Chapin told a small group of journalists that the coming tide of voters, coupled with new voter identification laws, "is the big story of the fall."

The unprecedented interest in the Democratic primary has led to "somewhat of a watershed" in the nation's election history. As the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama reached all 50 states, millions of new and first-time voters were swept up in the excitement, Chapin said. Meanwhile, he said, other voters realize that, with the nation in two wars as its economy falters, the stakes in this presidential election are unusually high, which will drive more people to the polls.

Chapin noted that during the primary, several states and jurisdictions weren't ready for a large turnout during the primary. Some places didn't have enough ballots to handle the crush, while other precincts didn't have enough poll workers.

Both kinds of glitches led to long lines, slow voter turnover, and lots of complaints. But some analysts predict a worse-case scenario that could lead to an electorial crisis in November.

With new restrictions on voter identification, the election system may not be able to handle the oncoming surge, he added.

"If there is a problem, it will be exacerbated" by the number of people waiting in line, Chapin said. "It will tax the system and stress the very talented and capable people" who make it run.