An outlier or more on the money?

Let me get this straight: The AP claims that their poll shows a closer race because they are polling cell phones while the other pollsters aren't. This claim in spite of the fact that cell phone-only users disproportionately represent young and minority citizens, who clearly break for Obama? That makes absolutely no sense at all.

It's an outlier, folks. Look at a bunch of polling and the answer will always fall "in the middle." Obama's actual lead is somewhere around 6-7 points today and it's likely to stay there until election day.

Is this national poll represent all of Texas or something? How can we have virtually every other state and national poll heading the opposite direction? What is their definition of LIKELY VOTER? I read their data and can't find a definition.

What are the tendencies of cell-only voters? This poll says they overwhelmingly choose McCain, and that smells like a rat to me.

Associated Press: "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" LOL

I think perhaps most people who own cell phones are able to vote - except welfare recipients who get free phones, are as likely to vote. Also, if they saw the debate, which is a random variable as well plays a part so the polls are statistically significant in its randomness. The other polls represent constituencies and are biased way out past reasonableness.

But more detail paints a different picture:
"The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters."

Outlier. The AP has shown its cards on more than one occasion. Any chance to show bias for McCain, they'll take.

This is interesting, but not enlightening. What it may show is that the day of relying on professional pollsters to tell us anything is coming to an end. Yet another group of people may be looking for work when this is all over.

Here's the most important thing to keep in mind: the 2000 and 2004 elections were so close that questions about tampering with voting machines in Ohio and Florida continue to be raised - legitimately. Obama now has enthusiastic support including support among those who voted Republican in the last election. If Obama loses we WILL need to check those machines.

Plausible deniability, or whatever the opposite of that would be. If you are planning on stealing and election, you have to at least make it look like the loser could win. I don't think anyone thinks that the race has tightened after the last debate including many republican leaders. This is pretty lame on the part of corporate media.

Love the headlines "Race now Even", and then they point out how every other poll shows Obama with a big lead. This is the right-wing media out to lay the groundwork for another Republican theft of the election.

The AP Washington bureau chief is Ron Fournier, a guy who almost joined McCain's campaign before taking his current job, and who has already shown hostility towards Obama. Funny that he's the only one saying it's this close--oh, and those Republicans and Democrats speaking "privately." Rat indeed.

The poll may make headlines, however it doesn't make sense. To assume this poll is right is to assume every other poll is wrong. Also the Associated Press-GfK polling is less reputable that Gallup, Pew or Zogby, all of which have Obama up by as much as 14 points.

Clearly an outlier, shame on the AP for not doing its homework.

Do any of you really think that those in power now, who stole the 200 election are going to lose this one? Not a chance. Read the piece in the current Rolling Stone on how current republican secretaries-of -state are throwing out 10s of thousands of legitimate registered voters because new rules give them the authority. The SoS of Colorado has thrown out 500,000 voters, 95% democrat and does not have to give a reason by state law. McCain will steal this election - there is no doubt.

I think the AP poll is great for Obama. It will cause his supporters to continue to work hard and not take victory for granted. As soon as I send this post I am going to the DNC and Obama websites and donate money. I am also going to donate some time to do my part for his victory.

At this time in 2004, Kerry was up by 13 -15 points so it is understandable why liberals and the media are trying to win through propoganda and can't beleive a poll that shows it is close.

David, Told tell anyone buddy, but the corporate media, most of it anyway is in the bag of Obama. Jesus, dude, do you ever watch the news. Fox may not be in Obama's corner, but every other media outlet is staunchly liberal dude. Wake up. This poll may be wrong. But it sure as **** isn't becuase they are rooting for McCain.