Globe poll: Obama soars to big lead in New Hampshire
By Lisa Wangsness, Globe Staff
CONCORD, N.H. - Barack Obama has vaulted to a 15-point lead over John McCain in New Hampshire, according to a new Boston Globe poll, a significant gap in a state that McCain considers his second political home and has long been a swing state in the race for the White House.
Financial distress has clearly driven voters from McCain to Obama, who was trailing his Republican rival by 2 percentage points in September - a 17-point swing in just one month. Nearly half of those surveyed cited the economy and jobs as their top concerns, and they overwhelmingly saw Obama as the candidate best equipped to address them.
"McCain certainly has his back to the wall in New Hampshire," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. "The economic crisis in September and October has changed the mood of voters in New Hampshire, who are now solidly backing Obama as the candidate best able to deal with economic issues."
The poll also found that the Arizona senator is being dragged down by a deeply troubled Bush administration, an increasingly unpopular running mate, Sarah Palin, and the perceived negativity of his campaign. Three-quarters of those surveyed said Obama has the best chance to win, which Smith said could depress turnout for McCain. (See an in-depth interactive graphic from the poll.)
Obama's edge in New Hampshire is fresh evidence that the state is shedding its identity as the last refuge for Yankee conservatives. The survey of 725 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 22, had Obama leading 54 to 39 percent, with 6 percent undecided and a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
In a sign of how all-important the economy has become in this election, Obama has seized a commanding lead even though voters saw McCain as better able to take on terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and Iraq.
When it came to who would be better at handling the economy and the financial system, the Illinois senator trounced his rival.
Harry Nelson, a 79-year-old retired Wall Street money manager who participated in the poll and agreed to speak with a reporter afterward, said the next president will enter the White House under conditions similar to those that faced Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933. Obama, he said, has "some of the same stuff" as Roosevelt and could be a "transformational leader."
"If you look at the way he runs his campaign, it's been brilliant," said Nelson, an undeclared voter who lives in Hanover. "I don't think he's an economic expert, but he doesn't have to be - he picks good people. . . . That's what management is all about, isn't it?"
Most voters - 66 percent - considered McCain the more experienced of the two candidates. But, in a sign that McCain has failed to cast himself as a reformer and to dissociate himself from Bush, twice as many respondents said Obama was the candidate most likely to bring change.
While an equal number of voters rated McCain and Obama as the stronger leader, the poll found that Obama has established himself as the candidate voters can most relate to and trust. A significant majority said Obama has better judgment, and a majority said he is more trustworthy and most reflects their values.
Misty Foote, a 37-year-old independent voter from Rochester, said she decided to vote for Obama in the last couple of weeks.
"I think he's down to earth and he's one of us," said Foote, who is disabled and lives on Social Security. "I just think McCain is going to be just like Bush. He's going to keep everything the same, and that would be fine if we had a good economy, but we don't."
On financial issues, 15 percent said they were "very" or "somewhat" worried about losing their jobs, and a similar number - mostly younger and lower-income voters - were deeply concerned about losing their homes. But more than two-thirds of those polled said they were "very" or "somewhat" worried about a secure retirement, and 42 percent said the same about college costs.
The bailout plan was unpopular in New Hampshire among voters in both parties, according to the poll; 55 percent said they disapproved of it strongly or somewhat. The poll found widespread support for tax cuts for the middle class; Republicans were more likely to favor cuts for small businesses.
New Hampshire, a battleground state in both of the last two presidential election cycles, has been growing steadily more liberal in recent years because of significant population churn. Smith said nearly one-third of potential voters did not live in the state or were too young to vote in 2000.
Three other factors besides the economy appear to have damaged McCain in the Granite State. By a nearly 3-to-1 margin, voters said McCain's campaign was the most negative, and over the last month, the Republican nominee's favorability ratings have plummeted while Obama's have climbed.
"The John McCain I see right now is not the John McCain I saw in 2000," said Kevin Clancy, a 47-year-old undeclared voter from Manchester who had considered voting for McCain after Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination. "I just can't stand the lies and the smears that are coming from the Republican Party."
McCain is also being dragged down in New Hampshire by a hugely unpopular White House, the poll found. Twenty percent of voters surveyed had a favorable opinion of the president and 71 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him; last month, the numbers were 24 percent and 66 percent, respectively.
A third handicap for McCain is Palin. The poll found that more voters now have an unfavorable opinion of her than a favorable one, a reversal of the situation a month ago; Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden's popularity, on the other hand, has steadily grown. Thirty-nine percent this month said they had a favorable opinion of Palin; 48 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of her. Fifty-four percent had a favorable opinion of Biden, 27 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.
Linda Comeau, 55, an independent voter from Stratham who supported Clinton in the primary, said she was "very open" to McCain until he picked Palin. "She is not prepared to be vice president," she said. "She is uninformed, she doesn't know what she is saying, she is inexperienced, and compared to Barack Obama her intellect is minimal."
Still, many McCain supporters preferred him for his experience, especially on national security issues.
Betsy Manchester , a 58-year-old school nurse's assistant who lives in Nottingham, said she thought McCain had an edge over Obama on national security issues.
"He is a veteran; he has served his country; he was a POW," she said. "I think he's seen it all and he knows basically what to expect and how to react." On Iraq, she added, McCain is closer to her view that "we've just got to stick it out - unfortunately."
A central question is whether polls accurately reflect the effect of race and racism in a campaign where Obama is the first African-American nominee of a major party.
The Globe poll found that 22 percent of New Hampshire voters said they had heard a friend, family member, or co-worker say they would not vote for Obama because he is black, but only 9 percent said they thought many people would not vote for him because of his race, and 6 percent thought many people would support him because of it. Smith said that together, the results suggest that while some voters have heard chatter about race, it is isolated or coming from people who would be unlikely to vote for Obama anyway.
Geoff Gilbertson, a machinist from Peterborough, said one person he knows wouldn't vote for Obama because of his race, but it was "someone who has absolutely no interest in voting."
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Let's remember what this country is all about, who we are and what we stand for. I am PROUD to be an American and I will be able to continue to say that after voting for McCain. I am ready and willing to wave the Red, White and Blue and know McCain is the one who will lead us back to our countries core values. Will you be able to say that if you vote for Obama?
I am of the opinion that race should not be an issue in this election. However, it is a fact that should not be missed that what people say openly and privately is not what they ae going to do when they are balloting. They can say they are voting for Obama, but end up voting for McCain. it is a fact that some people will not stomach voting for a Black man--watch this space
BTW you ought to call this managed content if th blogger gets to review it before it is posted so it meat their agenda just like the "polls" - CENSOR WHAT? You must have some really stupid people if they believe this has any substance. However look who you send to represent your state, and it makes complete sense.
My big concern about Mc Cain is that if he becomes president then he cut all expenses except in three categories. This will put a huge burden on states and cities. So even though he is not increasing federal taxes. We will experience very high State taxes. He has a shifty don't increase taxes. The American public will suffer even further duress.
I agree that what has come out of his and Sarah Paliin Is lies and deceit about his opposition. It shows this nation exactly how he will handle opposition from other countries and if he does what he is doin here with other countries the bombs will be flying into US teritory. He does not have a clue how to handle a war. Just look at his bad manners
Thank GOD that fidgity, creepy old man McCain is behind in the polls. George Bush and the Republicans bankrupted this country and it will take Democrats in both houses and the presidency in order to fix the crimes of the Republicans.
Not more than an hour and a half ago, John McCain was on Meet The Press making comments regarding the importance of New Hampshire's electoral votes. "Never mind."
I would not vote for McCain no matter who he was competing against. He has shown himself to be detrimental to our country. Sure, he served in Viet Nam and sure he was a POW; however that does NOT make him a hero, most especially since he put himself above and before his military comrades by cooperating with his captors in besmirching the USA. A true hero would have staye true to his country and his comrades, period. There are many, many POWs who did just that!! Furthermore, times have changed drastically in the last 40 years and we are fighting a far different war, McCain's Viet Nam experience is useless today!!
McCain was a hard drinking wastrel who crashed three planes; partied but did not study military history, and models himself on Benito Mussolini, as much as he dares. McCain does not understand Military History, not Military Strategy, or he never would have approved of the Cheney-Bush deeply flawed, deeply ignorant military plans. McCain's hard drinking life-style fitted him to be a hard drinking junior Sargent or Private or Corporal, not a Military Officer. To make McCain a Commander in Chief would be an inappropriate as making Palin the Vice President Nominee. McCain in 2000, came to South Carolina, make comments on Bob Jones University that spat in Huguenot Holocaust descendants face, and all other Presbyterians or Calvinists.
with the attacks, smears and downright lies it is hard for anyone to discern where mccains agenda really is. it does not help when his running mate is running for the 2012 presidency ignoring the team concept. the rnc has a lot of shoring up to do after this debacle. roger
Where's the sample data? For all we know, and as with most polls, there's a greater % of democrats sampled than republicans. When was the poll done; at night or during the day? Were the respondents white, black, hispanic? This is another example of not including the whole story.
under mccain,both wars in iraq and afganistan will never be over,,and mccain will start a war with iran, you can bet on that..mccain now is saying he is not bush, but when you voted with bush over 90% of the time , we know we will get 4 more years of the last 8 years..and i do not make over 250,000 a year, you can read today that the united states, rich and poor gap has grown the most in the world since 2000, and this is what mccain supports, because mccain is in the top 5% with his wife who made 4.2 million last year, plus has 100 million in the bank.
My question is why did Americans support Bush in 2000 and 2004. The good thing about Gore not being elected is Lieberman was not VP for the last eight years.
"The Globe poll found that 22 percent of New Hampshire voters said they had heard a friend, family member, or co-worker say they would not vote for Obama because he is black,..."
Still a sad state of affairs for the so called "melting pot". It is amazing to see that people are willing to allow skin color to keep them from doing that which may actually be good for this country. Is this "patriotism"? I think not.
I have a fear, not of the “Bradley Effect", and not so much of a stolen election, but a fear of a new unique dynamic of this election. I fear that there are too many Americans who are basically conservative, subtly racist, who cannot imagine, much less tolerate, a black president. Especially a president named Obama.
Now obviously those people are nestled well within the republican demographic of 40% voting McCain, so why worry?
I worry because past voter turnouts are so low. I worry that these people have always been there, always been republican, but many of them did not vote. I worry this time is different. They are appalled that a black man could actually be their president in one week, and they are angry.
I am worried about a reactionary, subtly racist, usually voter passive, gigantic voter turnout.
Previously grumbling but non-voting republicans are disturbed this could even be a possibility, surprised because they live in a bubble of like minded racist views, are so angry now they will turn up at the polls for the first time ever.
I fear this because of my experience phone canvassing for Obama in Wisconsin. The reactions of non supporters on the phone is disgust, anger, and hatred.
Previous election voter turnouts are low for both sides. The republicans will vote this year, out of indignation and "over my dead body" anger, many for the first time ever.
All of this points to crucial get-out-the-vote efforts. It means nothing that Obama is popular. The only thing that matters is how many Obama supporters actually show up and vote. Answering a phone poll is warm, comfy, and easy. Standing in line in the cold for hours is the only way to get Obama elected.
Get out the vote. Every single vote.
New Hampshire? Comrad, everyone knows New Hampsire is to the left of Karl Marx! No suprise there! Obama is the extreme far left. You can't go any further left. He even scares those that are pro-abortion with his stand on partial birth abortion. You know, that's where a child that can live outside the womb can be murdered! They may get what they deserve and in the Union of New Hamphshire. Comrad Obama!
You expect us to believe this???
The Globe is the best birdcage liner newspaper.
People in NH will not vote for Obama because he is a dangerous creation of the media, of George Soros, Z Brzezinski, and the bankers who caused this phony crisis in the economy.
The Dem congress caused the FANNIE MAE fiasco and they have a 14% approval rating.
We are not going to vote for some cracksmoking Hitler wannabe no matter what color he is.
He's a freakin' MARXIST for crying out loud. You don't help the country's debt by SPENDING or giving away money to the UN.
How stupid can people BE?????
CONGRESS 14% approval rating.. Why didn't Lisa ask THAT question?
WHAT A CROCK..
I've never been polled and I wouldn't vote for Obama if he were the only man left on earth.
President Bush was and is still and experienced leader. Americans what do you need? A vsionally leader or an experienced leader who will lead you in to war with every nation in this continent. McCain is a very confused leader who ia NOT able not express himself even on very basc terms of nation leadership. He keeps on telling us about his experience on the war zone. But we already have many of these Americans in Iraq and many other parts of the world. Wake up Americans and show that you are NOT racists. Obama has proven he can lead you and be a respected Nation more importantly regain you lost grolly.
Its a shame that people voted for GWBush twice in this country, the US has been damaged significantly by the republican party, I hope its not too late to turn this country around. Lets hope Americans start demanding our politicins represent middle class Americans instead of the lobbyists that own the republican party.
McCain is just 4 more years of Bush policys and further destruction of this economy. I hope folks vote for change and put in Obama
Obama seems to have a Teflon quality because the American public is hesitant to criticize an African American. If Obama were white, he would have been crucified a long time ago.
All Obama says in his speech is empty hyperbole. And like a Gumby without integrity, he bends his words to fit what the public wants to hear, prostituting his words for a vote.
We know nothing about Obama, the only thing we know is that it is politically correct to vote for a black man and not ask questions. This need to vote for someone because of their race is an insidious and destructive form of discrimination.
But what the populous fails to consider is Obama’s past actions and associations which clearly demonstrate a hatred for this country and horrendous bad judgment. And Instead of addressing the accusations of associating with terrorist and mob members, Obama reacts like a terrorist by threatening all who dare to criticize or challenge him.
I have never given credence to the idea of an Anti-Christ, until now.
Racist comments aside (at least the polls show that women, the unions, blacks, hispanics, seniors and young voters will vote for Obama), McCain totally blew it when he picked Failin' Palin.
Didn't ANYONE see the Couric / Palin interviews? Her mind is empty, void of all relevant content that pertains to the American people. Make no mistake about it, she's out to promote Numero Uno - Failin' Palin, and that's why she's being a "reformer" and "maverick" and ignoring McCain's campaign strategists. The "team" of McCain/Failin' is not a team at all.
Failin' is a horrendous embarassment to the American people - and, please let's not forget that McCain made this decision on his own - the most important campaign decision you can make. Aside from the vital issues of the economy and the war, that fact that McCain picked Failin' is more than enough to make you vote for Obama!
it will all be over in a week. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!!!
Yes, Nancy Nicker, when I vote for Obama, I will proudly say that it will be a vote for our country's core values: a vote against torture, against illegal wars, against spying on our people, against illegal search and seizure, against cronyism that fills one government position after another with yes-men and incompetents, and for taking care of those less fortunate, for protecting the environment, for working with our allies rather than dissing them, for change and optimism and against hate and staying stuck in solutions of the past.
Why is it that once people say that Obama is a "leftist" or (gasp! choke!) a socialist they seem to think that the discussion is over? Do you know the origin of socialism? Check out the New Testament Acts of the Apostles 2:44-45. After Jesus died the believers moved outside Jerusalem, where they lived together and held all things in common. Each man sold all his possessions and laid the proceeds at the feet of the Apostles, WHO DISTRIBUTED THEM ACCORDING TO NEED. So when you want to use socialism as a boogeyman, read about the economic system of the early Christians
I voted early in Florida
I'm a mid-fifties aged college educated professional worker that took the time to watch both the democratic and republican national conventions and listen to all the keynote speeches. I've looked at the web sites of each candidate and thought their positions over. I'm retired military - a gun owner - and Christian - I'm concerned about experienced leadership, common sense leadership and America's place in the world. I did not act in haste - I filtered all the party ranting from both sides out and made my own informed choice. If you are like me, and took all the facts in and thought them over. You will do the right thing for America. Put your country first.
Vote as I did - vote for Sen. Obama.
I believe he - more than anyone else - has the ability to put together the best team for fixing America's woes. America needs intelligent, rational leadership.
Thanks for letting me air my view.
All things considered, I'm surprised that Sen. McCain gets even the percentage he does. There are those who vote for a party, not a candidate. I guess it is the ultra super-hardcore Republicans who will vote Republican as is their habit. Thank goodness I'm an independent ...not blindly following any party. Then too, some will look for any excuse to explain away their unwillingness to vote for Sen. Obama...and we know what that's about too.
I too question these polls. All of them. I've been phone banking for McCain since mid July and have made -over 5,000 calls to NH Independent voters. It's breaking 3 or even 4 to 1 in favor of McCain. I understand that this isn't a scientific poll, but it's my experience - and I hear the same kind of responses from other callers every day. So,maybe the Globe is polling all democrats? Who knows. But to those McCain supporters - don't give up! The MSM wants you to do just that. Let Obama work on his inauguration speech - but let's you and I keep on fighting!
Nancy Nicker - Yes I will be able to say I am proud to be an American if Obama wins.
Tony-and anybody else. If (and it's a big if-McCain campaign lies so freely) Obama has worked on an inauguration speech - so what? Better to plan for contingencies rather than run around like a chicken with your head cut off. I'll take the planner rather than the knee-jerk reactive candidate.
Hey Jim in Atlanta, Do you know what they call a child murdered outside the womb? AN IRAQI CITIZEN!
Now the US presidential election is over. It needs to be pointed out that the USA has brought down all barriers of racism and elected an African American to the highest office in the Land. The work of rebuiling an ailing economy and briging bridges across the Atlantic should begin as quickly as possible. We know that there are some Old statesmen who would like to lead Obama in this transformational--they must back off and allow Obama to implement his poilicies--he has a vision for this planet and his judgement is profoundly good.
The Republicans were beaten, but it not over yet as they are now ploting to retake the Whitehouse in the next Presidential election.