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The New Hampshire mystery

Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor March 30, 2009 04:08 PM

It was one of the nagging mysteries of the Democratic presidential primaries last year: Why were the polls so wrong in New Hampshire?

Coming off a huge win in the Iowa caucuses and drawing large crowds, Barack Obama was ahead in the polls and appeared primed to all but sew up the nomination. But Hillary Clinton, who the day before the primary choked up when talking about why she was in the race, pulled off her version of the "comeback kid" routine, won the Granite State primary, and ended up staying in the race until June.

In a report released today, a panel of polling specialists didn't come to any definitive conclusions, but said surveys likely ended too early to take into account late movement among voters.

Also, Clinton supporters, including union members and less educated voters, were harder to reach and some pollsters did not try more than twice, skewing the sample toward pro-Obama voters, said the committee put together by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

The panel discounted other possible explanations, such as the so-called "Bradley effect" where some white voters say they will support a black candidate, but don't vote that way in the privacy of the polling booth.

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how about the tears moment and middle-aged women coming to hillary's defense... the press had been very cruel to her and i think finally, it tipped. also, massachusetts went overwhelmingly for hillary.

Posted by brian March 30, 09 04:29 PM
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The reason that clinton won was because her major supporters sent out a letter warning that Obama might be pro-life.

Posted by john March 30, 09 04:40 PM
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I love how even though the AAPOR "discounted" other theories (the ones they had were apparently offensive enough) you still throw racism. The "Bradley effect" is extremely distasteful, and makes the white population seem fickle and dishonorable . Not to mention it cannot be validated in any way. Journalism like this pisses me off.

Posted by Rachael March 30, 09 04:56 PM
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Many factors came in to play, 1st the NH primary was pushed because of the early date of the Iowa Caucuses. The college towns were empty because students were on recess and not around. The media playing up the wide gap in the polls allowed voters to pick up republican ballots instead to vote for underdog, John Mc Clain (something that happens in Nh only).

Posted by Martin March 30, 09 05:29 PM
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I dont get it.....didnt the black guy win? (oh wait, Im white, its agains the law for me to mention color unless I am handing it a buck, thats racist,...sorry)
Didnt all the fixings around the nation and the media work, why are we so concerned about this. It was inevitable the guy was going to win, from the mixing board fixed voice alterations, to the stolen slogans, it was in the hole for B.O.....

Posted by notyourtypical March 30, 09 06:25 PM
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I hate the stereotyping, which is basically garbage from media types who think they know everything. I'm graduate-school educated,male, and supported Clinton (and Obama against McCain). To classify NH as being racist because the polls were wrong has always been a cheap shot.

Posted by glf March 30, 09 06:55 PM
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How about the e-mail blitz claiming BO was a terrorist, attended a madrassa, wouldn't say the pledge of alligence. etc. etc..
Myself and everone I know got this email in the 2 weeks prior to NH.

Posted by rich March 30, 09 06:59 PM
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Yes he won and our children and grand children will suffer for it. Already he is taking over and notice how fast. The reason, obviously before someone wakes up to the evil in store.

Posted by liljackie March 30, 09 09:01 PM
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electronic voting machines were manipulated. precincts without electronic machines had results that matched the polls [ also matched exit polls]. the recounts they did were a joke.

Posted by paul martin March 30, 09 09:01 PM
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.....Clinton supporters, including union members and less educated voters, were harder to reach and some pollsters did not try more than twice.....BINGO!
They were al working and didn't want to waste their valuable time answering stupid poll questions.

Posted by wilvus March 30, 09 10:39 PM
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First of all, just after the NH primary, NH voters were polled on why they chose Hillary over BHO and those that made up their mind within the last couple of days overwhelmingly supported Hillary. Further, those same people decided, not because of the "tears incident" but because they believed she did the best at the debate, overwhelmingly they believed she won the debate. So, on the last few days the movement was in her favor. This trend continued throughout the country in almost all primary states. Those who were undecided moved towards Hillary in those final days: Texas, PA, OH, the list goes on and on. so worrso wor

Obam

Posted by nikki March 30, 09 10:44 PM
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