GOP gains among independents

Republicans, boosted by winning two races for governor last week, have more reason for optimism.

A new Gallup Poll released today found the GOP inching ahead of the Democrats in a generic House race in next year's mid-term election, largely on the strength of support among independent voters.

Among registered voters, 48 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate and 44 percent say they would back the Democratic candidate. That's a swing from July, when 50 percent supported the Democrat and 44 percent the Republican.

The generic GOP candidate leads 52 percent to 30 percent among independent voters, who went heavily for President Obama and Democrats last year. In July, Republicans led 43 percent to 42 percent.

The survey was conducted Nov. 5-8, just after the GOP won in New Jersey and Virginia, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Republicans are aiming to retake control of both the House and Senate in 2010 from Democrats, who have substantial majorities in both chambers. If Republicans succeed, Obama's agenda for the second half of his term would likely be stymied.

"Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans seem well-positioned to win back some of their congressional losses in 2006 and 2008. Independents are increasingly coming to prefer the Republican candidate for Congress, and now favor the GOP by 22 points. Political conditions could still shift between now and Election Day to create a more favorable environment for Democratic candidates, but a Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters has been a sign of a strong Republican showing at the polls in the coming election," Gallup says in its analysis.

UPDATE: In another warning sign for Democrats, just 52 percent of registered voters said they want their own representative to be re-elected next year and only 34 percent said they wanted to see most lawmakers in general returned to office, according to poll released today by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Those figures are similar to numbers recorded in 2006 and 1994, the last two elections in which control of both houses of Congress changed political parties, according to the survey.