Study: Parallels between 1994 and now on health care

By Lisa Wangsness, Globe Staff

WASHINGTON -- Americans' opinion of the health care proposals now before Congress is eerily similar to public opinion of the Clinton health reform initiatives in 1994, according to an analysis published in the New England Journal of Medicine today -- and that may not bode well for Democrats.

In theory, Americans think the health care system needs to be fixed and they like many of the ideas Democrats are promoting. But they don't like the specific proposals taking shape because they do not think they will benefit them personally.

The report, an in-depth look at more than 30 polls conducted this fall and during the same period in 1994, when the Clinton health reform effort was gasping its last breaths, was co-authored by Robert J. Blendon, a Harvard professor and a leading specialist on health care and public opinion whom congressional leaders of both parties have consulted.

Critics are likely to point out that it is impossible to compare the two periods -- in the fall of 1994, Clinton had been president for a year longer than President Obama has now. Obama has had much more cooperation from Congress than Clinton has had, thanks partly to a difference in strategy. Obama allowed Congress to handle the details of the lawmaking process, while Clinton created resentment among lawmakers by employing a secretive process within the executive branch.

At this time in 1993, the parallel point in the Clinton presidency, Clinton had not yet even introduced bills; this time, five congressional committees have passed legislation, and all of the bills approach the problem of how to insure nearly 50 million Americans without coverage in basically the same way.

But Blendon's analysis hones in on a key point that Democrats are likely to pay increasing attention to, particularly after this week's elections put them on notice that voters remain deeply concerned about the economy and restless with their political leadership.