Mitt Romney and President Obama would tie in a presidential election held today, says Quinnipiac poll

By Michael J. Bailey, Globe Staff

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and President Obama would be neck-and-neck if a presidential election were held today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll that also shows 49 percent of the respondents believe the president does not deserve a second term.

About 45 percent of those surveyed preferred Romney, who is considering another run for the presidency after his candidacy in 2008, and 44 percent backed Obama. In another close match-up, the president edges former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, another GOP presidential candidate in 2008, by 46-to-44 percent. Both of those results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The president fares better against a galvanizing force in GOP circles, Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor trails the president by 8 percentage points, 48-40, among respondents.

“At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama,'' Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a report on the poll. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion.”

When asked by Barbara Walters in an interview last week whether she could defeat the president, Palin replied: "I believe so."

The ABC interview is scheduled for broadcast Dec. 9.

Palin remains strong among the GOP base, the Quinnipiac poll shows, mirroring other recent nationwide surveys. Among GOP respondents, Palin garnered 19 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 18 percent, Huckabee at 17 percent, and former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 15 percent.

Among Democrats, respondents overwhelmingly backed Obama, with 64 percent saying they do not want anyone to challenge him in the primaries, with only 27 percent backing a competitive race.

“The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his reelection, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain,” Brown said.

Overall, 49 percent of American voters say Obama does not deserve reelection, compared to 43 percent who do, according to the national poll, which surveyed 2,424 registered voters a week after the midterm elections on Nov. 2.