Romney out to early lead in NH primary, poll says

By Matt Viser, Globe Staff

WASHINGTON – Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in the crucial primary state of New Hampshire, according to a new poll that shows him 23 points ahead of his next closest Republican rival, former Alaksa Governor Sarah Palin.

In the poll, which is based on 1,451 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 39 percent picked Romney, compared with 16 percent for Palin. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was the only other candidate who polled in double-digits, getting 10 percent.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 8 percent; Representative Ron Paul of Texas got 7 percent; former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty got 4 percent; former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania got 3 percent; and Missisippi Governor Haley Barbour got 1 percent.

The poll is still very early in the process – no candidate has formally announced, and primary voters won’t head to the polls for more than a year – but Romney’s lead is substantial.

He has 73 percent favorability rating and leads in all categories. His biggest lead over Palin is among independent women, where 41 percent chose Romney compared with 9 percent for Palin.

During the 2008 campaign, the former Massachusetts governor came in second place in the Granite State, behind the eventual nominee, Senator John McCain. If Romney decides to run again, as he is widely expected to, New Hampshire will almost certainly be a must-win state for him.

The poll was conducted on Jan. 4 by Magella Data and Mapping Strategies, and was commissioned by NHJournal.com. Likely voters were contacted using automated telephone calls, and the survey has a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

Matt Viser can be reached at maviser@globe.com.