National polls don't tell the story

BIG KAHUNA. President Bush surfs waves of bad publicity from 9/11 hearings, runaway death and disorder in Iraq, and three books on his obsession with Iraq. Result: Jumps into lead in national polls. But national polls like average national temperature. US mean for April is 67 degrees. But Thursday it was 80 degrees in Boston, 54 in Chicago, 43 in Denver. National numbers don't show local conditions in swing states. But national polls do drive conventional wisdom. CW went from John Kerry cruising to George Bush rallying.

ABCs of swing states. Proving national temperature theory, ABC/Washington Post poll showed much tighter race in swing states than rest of country. Kerry leads Bush 46-44 percent in 17 battleground states. Bush leads 48-43 nationally with Mr. Consumer swiping 6 points. In new state polls, Kerry leads by one in Iowa and trails by one in Florida.

Woodward, Ho! Bob Woodward book describes events that show Bush determined, stubborn, reckless, and malleable. Goes from being war skeptic to war hawk after CIA's George Tenet tells him skimpy WMD evidence is "slam-dunk." Bush tells family pal Saudi Prince Bandar about plan to attack Iraq two days before he tells own secretary of state. Resign, Mr. Powell.

Read it like we wrote it, Senator. Washington Post's John F. Harris found John F. Kerry delivers speeches that massacre prepared text. Written: "Who among us could move on short notice when you don't even know where your paycheck will come from?" Spoken: "Who among us thinks it's right to say so quickly, on short notice, before you even know where your next paycheck's going to come from; before you know, if you haven't been working, what skill you can apply to be able to earn a paycheck; before you've been able to adjust to the loss and begin to be able to get back into life?"

Time to put the joy stick away, Mr. President. Republican National Committee is running ad on Internet video game site that lets player act like cartoon President Bush killing terrorists who have invaded White House. RNC also advertising on 1,400 websites.

Ads tally. Annenberg Center found Bush has spent about $50 million so far on TV spots. Kerry $12 million, plus another $28 million spent by pro-Democratic, anti-Bush cabal (Media Fund, MoveOn, AFL-CIO).

Commitment and Risk. Kerry beaming two new TV spots into swing states. "Commitment" shows Kerry looking to camera so he can "look voters straight in the eye" and make a "foundational argument about where he is taking the country," Kerry strategist Mike Donilon said. "Foundational?" Kerry says, "My priorities are jobs and health care. My commitment is to defend this country." Long-awaited slogan: "Together, we can build a stronger America." We waited months for that?

Second ad foolishly named "Risk" shows Kerry talking to someone slightly off-screen. "Let me tell you exactly what I would do to change the situation in Iraq. I would immediately reach out to the international community in sharing the burden, the risk because they also have a stake in the outcome of what is happening in Iraq." Kerry concludes, "We're paying the highest price in the loss of lives of our young soldiers, almost alone." Reaching out to UN no big deal, especially when Bush cynically reaching there, too.

Democrats on Internet. After Bush stumped at press conference when asked to name one mistake, Democratic National Committee offered help on Internet. As totally unreflective president stumbles around, DNC ad nominates mistakes: "Mission accomplished." "We found the weapons of mass destruction." "Bring 'em on." Will creator of that spot please contact Kerry campaign immediately?

GOP as Yankees. GOP always buys all-star presidential ad team of political and commercial advertising talent. Bush's team led by A-Rod, ex-Dem and Texan Mark McKinnon, who goes back to Dubya's first reelection as governor. Others: Dallas's Wolf Agency, Hispanic-ad specialist Lionel Sosa, and NY ad agency creative director for Dr. Pepper. Also Stuart Stevens, who did Weld TV in campaign against Kerry. Best known headhunter on team is Alex Castellanos, infamous auteur of anti-affirmative action spot for North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms. Alex also slipped "rats" into Republican spot attacking Al Gore's health care proposal.

Kerry's three-man team. Kerry campaign now wholly owned subsidiary of firm of Shrum, Devine, and Donilon. Handling all of Kerry's TV and message work. Shrum is speechwriter, Tad Devine is expert on electoral votes and delegates, Donilon is pollster. Nice of Kerry to let them handle media for what he calls "most important election of our lifetime."

Dan Payne is a Boston-based media consultant who worked on John Kerry's Senate campaigns and for Michael Dukakis during the 1988 presidential primaries. His column appears on alternating Saturdays and Sundays.