Carrier image: sink or swim?

When George Bush dramatically declared an end to major combat in Iraq from the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, pundits characterized it as the unofficial kickoff of the 2004 presidential campaign, marking his transition from commander-in-chief to candidate.

Now that smartly choreographed photo opportunity may prove to be one of those enduring -- and defining -- presidential campaign images. Whether it serves Bush or his rivals remains to be seen.

With casualties and concerns mounting in Iraq, Bush's carrier speech has become a potential weapon for his Democratic opponents. Howard Dean made news recently by suggesting he would run an ad using Bush's carrier appearance to highlight the failures of US policy in Iraq. But it was John Kerry who struck first last week, airing a spot dubbed "Carrier," which shows Bush aboard the Lincoln and lauds Kerry's national security and combat credentials.

The ad includes a shot of Kerry standing in front of an aircraft carrier during his announcement speech, an image that prompted the Dean forces to slam both Bush and Kerry for seeming to agree that "a speech on an aircraft carrier is a fine substitute for leadership in the face of a failing war you supported."

"You won't see a lot of candidates getting into tanks and putting on helmets anymore, and you won't see a lot of candidates on aircraft carriers anymore," said a Dean spokesman, Jay Carson, referring to Michael S. Dukakis's disastrous 1988 tank ride.

Other presidential campaigns have had damaging images: Ed Muskie's tears -- or was it melting snow? -- in a New Hampshire speech in 1972. George H. W. Bush's quick glance at his watch during a 1992 debate.

Dan Glickman thinks Bush's aircraft carrier imagery could be a boomerang moment. Glickman, the agriculture secretary under Bill Clinton, is the director of the Kennedy School of Government's Institute of Politics. "Any time a politician uses some creative mechanism to create an image for himself, you can be hoisted on your own petard," he said. "And that's what happened here."

Other analysts say the verdict is out on whether Bush's aircraft-carrier moment will be etched in voters' minds next November. "What visual image has the power of instant persuasion?" said Tobe Berkovitz, associate dean of Boston University's College of Communications. "Bush on the rubble heap [at the World Trade Center site] is going to have more impact than Bush on the aircraft carrier."

The carrier is an important image in the Democrats' primary, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "It may or may not be in the general election depending on what happens in Iraq."